i guess being above $5 doesn't hurt...the 23mn secondary was swallowed with ease...that shud tell u something....should be a great story next week.
i don't disagree with your statement but they (TK) made it clear at analyst day that TNK is in fleet/balance sheet "repair" mode and thus dividend hikes are a secondary consideration at the moment. Maybe in 2016, if market continues to recover, but I'd be astonished (but pretty happy) if they went back to variable pay in '15.
he'll be OK for sure. Notice they didn't guide down SG&A for '15 (nor LOE). Fascinating to me that with energy prices down 40+% and distribution cut by 35%, they can't seem to reduce their costs nor pay...strange...and JW's self-deprecating manner has worn thin....
i wouldn't expect div policy to change - in fact, i wouldn't look for even an increase until 2016 as market recovers. better to reinvest the CFs than pay a bigger div and then have to issue stock to grow.....
prob not fair to use cost/boe from last reports going forward. Just prod. taxes alone will be down w 40% drop in $ oil sales. Then CO2 is correlated not to mention direct fuel costs and chems etc. Id gues cash costs will be down $5/boe from '14 if crude sticks here
They should earn 35-40c this Q and 55c in cash flow. Next year, 75c-$1 NI with DCF ~$1.5. With new ships, there will be ~150mn in cashflow. After they make the required payments on their debt bomb, they'll be left with $75mn or about 1.5 new ships. Not only higher TCEs but a stable fleet age. Welcome to the world of organic growth my friends. So we are trading at a 10x trailing PE and 6-7 forward with a 20+% cash flow yield. If we paid out like the old days, this would trade north of $10. Where's NAPPY - I want to let him know its going to double again!
First - most of the tax "benefit" merely cleared out a deferred tax liability of $1.1bn that was on the balance sheet - of course drop of $10bn PPE dwarfs that benefit. There was an increase in a receivable - prob, estimated taxes they paid in '14 - that will be coming back to the tune of $260mn (inc. of 200mn from end '13). Offsetting that, however, is a drop in other current assets in particular a 100mn drop in "other current assets" reflecting lower expected payments from their customer supply agreements. If u look at current assets vs liabilities - really unchanged. Maybe there is a short term cash flow pop but pretty meaningless in the scheme of things particularly with inventory build in progress currently. NET NET - don't make a big deal of the tax implications - Terry the CFO even stated that a 10% cash tax rate should be used for modeling purposes in '15.
not my numbers chief...CLFs...check their 8k - Also there is no tax benefit. their deferred tax liability was zeroed out - no sheltering future income (beyond a small '15 boost) and the end result is still minus 1.7bn in equity
They have a small income tax receivable otherwise the write down wiped out the deferred tax liability they had on the books beforehand. So its non-recurring and not significant. My points was his or your pricing and cost assumptions were not consistent with company guidance so clearly he or you is/are overstating CLFs cash flow potential
your numbers are inflated and it makes u look bad. look at their guidance. 80-85 realized rev/ton and 60-65 cost. ebitda is prob in the 350-400 range. not bad but no cash left over for much else after int. divs etc. i can see them doing some asset back financing (at a low rate) to buy back bonds/equity which would be interesting.....
i think its a reasonable guess that the XCO PV-10 offer will not satisfy the drill return so KKR has the option to decline the sale. Is that good or bad? Depends on your bias i guess - IMO - if u can buy PV-10 post first year decline at today's strip and finance it at sub 5%, pretty good deal, which is why i doubt KKR will sell.
a similar deal would put HOLX well over $60 . $900mn ebitda x 21 (HSP multiple) - $2bn (to get comparable debt/ebitda leverage) divide by 280mn shares = $67/share. A 15 multiple gets you to $40 which seems a no-brainer for a "GE" type
great to have firm beliefs but doesn't make a ton of sense to jump in before they actually show some signs of turning things around. So far, their acquisition integration has been abysmal and they've yet to show any margin improvement. There is probably at least another quarter or two before that and in the meantime, their debt costs and leverage are extreme leaving them vulnerable. If the sages you cite are correct and this is worth $20+, they'll be time to get in sub $10 for a nice ride.
you not going to get there with a 3% gross profit margin when everyone else is in the 10+%. They've got some serious wood 2 chop and soon given their bloated debt to ebitda and covenants back in play. As for CFO quitting - typical after a debt fueled acquisition binge and poor execution - i expect a poor quarter with '14 ebitda coming in at 40mn = interest payments. And Q4 is "seasonally strong"
I guess 3-d imaging is not quite as sexy as infusion therapy but if HOLX ever fetched a 20x ebitda multiple at 2.5x debt/ebitda leverage, you'd have a $60 share price---just saying
he's a tiny fund - kind of surprised the press he gets....now HSP sells for 20+ times ebitda...oscar will be back on the tape saying BIOS can generate 100+ in ebitda and is worth in the 20s....as i said in my past posts, this is worth maybe $5 given debt and operation problems....
possible - walker has proven to unit holders that he can be stingy...i think most unit holders are use to his failed promises
At $60/$3, i see them generating ~175-200mn in EBITDA depending on expense (surely cost will come down?). With about 100mn in interest/maint. that leaves roughly 80 dcf or 50% coverage. Oil at 50 puts coverage at 40%. One thing to remember there is a floor on ethane where its get rejected back into NG (methane) so in a sense this has become more a pure Ngas play..We seem to differ on our numbers - not sure why but Im pretty comfortable with my numbers as Ive been following and trading this name for the last few years and it fits the observed. The next month or so will be interesting. IMO the tail risk is to the right at this point. g/l