i'd rather bet on the majors who have the legs to start fracing overseas...if there is one thing we are good at, its exporting our knowledge...i am quite cynical on the export story - sorry
a lot has to do with the perception by the market that they are being serious about their balance sheet...div cuts, asset sales etc. etc.....right now it just seems like a slow drip down the hole...no real plan outside of some sketchy JVs and deals which all look like XCO got taken for the ride....and not hedging 2015 when they could have locked in like $4.60-.70 looks downright stupid now and probably helped Mulhern out the door.
same thing happened with ABX (gold miner) - i was short in '13 covered most late last year but got long once asset sales were made, the dividend was cut, and they issued enough equity (and price dropped) - management got real.
when was the last time a company discussed a massive cash flow shortfall over the forthcoming few years on a CC? and heh, they didn't talk about 2015 hedging either...don;t ya think thats a big deal, don't ya!
if anything, all the capex stays a buyout offer....this is simply a bet on whether they can successfully morph the co to something more than just a refiner by paying 6x ebitda for acquisitions...and have access to liquidity in case times get rough - which if u look at it, means they need to issue equity soon if they didn't hit the bid in July
over the next 3 years, xco will need $450mn in funding for their KKR buyouts and drilling just to keep production flat in hope of NG prices going up. That means their credit line will get up to $700mn borrowed out of 875mn available. In the meantime, over $150mn in dividends will get paid out if they don't cut. Gasman has it right, if they keep the dividend next week it is not a good sign .... Cut it, let the pps take a dive when tradertrend finally hits the sell button, then issue more equity again at $4 -- XCO needs to be recapitalized one way or another - just a question of whether its friendly to the non-Wilburs of the world.....
well if u owned a natgas E&P index vs XCO, you would be down 25% over the last six months....maybe that is BFD to you, but a few more of those and you will be back in the back office checking tickets....btw - tradertrend - have you looked at the chart to the right?
TraderTrend...your analysis is typical of freshman research. Not only do you pick your data points singularly to attempt to make an argument but you fail to dig deep. If you had, you would have known that I traded BWP short as far back as 2012 from high 20s & 30s and then the div slash. Also, it traded intra-day below my upper "get long" target a month after that post so you fail to mention I was correct. I'll let you guess if I got any shares. As for CTL - i missed that boat getting long. I made some money from the short side but it never got to my get long target of $25. That's what happens when a company levers up and buys back shares - wasting shareholder $$$s. PWE - if u looked closer, you'll find a post where i got long in the mid 7s. and btw, where are we now? and did I sell in the 9s? And why do u pick the high? for CAT - still playing it from the short side as hedge against my longs....its a joke of a company that will get crushed in a recession so its a great hedge.
but you only post about XCO? That makes you 0 for 1 so far. Should we assume all your wealth is in XCO and declining by the day?
i am here to protect you from investing in XCO which is worth $4 or less by the day.....didn't mean to rub it in (sorry about that)...it was directed to my dear friend, tradertrend
heh TT - have you posted anything about any other stock other than pumping XCO starting back in Feb? or do you use different handles for different boards? Is this your first and only stock?
when they are bleeding 150-200mn in cash over the next two years and the debt to ebitda is closing in on 4. It makes no sense to pay 55+mn in dividends unless you don't care about the firm's balance sheet.
I bet they are doing it to prove me wrong.
so he rode it all the way down starting on Feb 13. Tell me you sold some north of 6 TT? What's it down 13% TT? Can't wait for your next call.
and I quote:
"How anyone can be so stupid to short XCO down here given all the smart money on the long side. Hilarious how lame and desperate they are to "think" that their incessant zero-content posts here will help their cause. I'll laugh when XCO inevitably rips their faces off while they desperately post nonsense about "bagwits" from their mommy's basement :-)"
awwwww - now you hurt my feelings....btw you forgot EPB which I missed huge too!
you don't seem to have any track record of calls - other than owning XCO which has clearly been (cough, cough)....let's just say at least I have one win....
the bonds trade depending on perception of recovery. In XCO's case, it is quite reasonable for the bonds to trade well while the equity goes to zero. If you look at XCO's balance sheet you'd see that as well....of course, everyone is clueless, or an idiot, of makes bad calls (you believe everything you read on yahoo message boards i guess)...
yes the fact that tradertrend links the price of the bonds to BK without considering potential recovery tells all...of course, he or she can simply keep insulting people