what is your valuation argument. Like what do u think acres are worth? How much reserves do they have at 3,4,5 NG? Saying there are huge players in the name and hang tight thru the storm is not investment advice....more like putting lipstick on a ...
they are planning on running 7-8 rigs in Haynesville. 4 are with BG, 3 are solo (the CHK land) and .5 is exporation in Bossier i believe. The 7 rigs in manu-mode prob drill 16 wells per year at $7.5 per so $600 mn to run those 7 rigs to XCO. Then u have 100+ mn for the EF. Another 50 or so for Permian and 50 for the balance, we are talking 800mn in capex - no can do - i don't care how much ebtida u get. U end up down 200+mn in cash flow so a deal is coming.
I agree with your point on equity - my guess is the deep pockets would like to do a private but that might spark concerns of conflict....o.w., why wouldn't wilbur just do the KKR deal himself......
well i don't know - how did he "screw" up the EBITDA? That seems more operational and less accounting...no maybe he had disagreements on how things are accounted for, i don't know...i think he just saw greener pastures
believe me, i understand that having left an investment bank that is no longer with us in early '07 leaving $s on the table....my point is there is a reason---my guess is he saw little to no upside on his comp and PE was a better bet.
more likely EXCO is going to close deals to do JVs in Haynesville and, possibly, PA....the capital needs, right now, are way to high for them to fly it alone.....which means another KKR type deal
i think he raises a good point, especially since Wilson left ~1mn in stock on the table when he left. He obviously left for greener, more private, pastures
u nailed it.....
assuming they actually were using the sale to pay off their credit line, what does that say about the returns they expect from their shares - like 3%? If the returns were really going to be good, why wouldn't they have done a private transaction?
Jonny Brumley - the apple falls far from the tree
the PV-10 at the end of 2011 was $8.8/share using 96.2 on oil and 4.1 on gas so net out the distributions so that should be a reasonable upper bound ?
well if the SEC doesn't care that they spin out these PE invests into trusts at absurd prices, with mythical production and distribution estimates, with promises of future production from advances, and the stock price drops 43% with the sponsor selling on the way down --- why should they care about having a little fun pumpin and dumpin
want a laugh...go look at his picture....cracked me up as i thought he was a gunslinger too from the calls.......i m totally out of shares....traded it from the long side for last two years and made some change but .... still have a few of their bonds....i wouldn't touch this until after the analyst day at the earliest...good luck
well one thing...Miller definitely stretches it and exaggerate but I don't find him a bald-face liar. In fact, he lets things slip out on the calls that he shouldn't which can help or hurt....obv, its been hurting of late.....might be fun to go to Dallas and meet him on the 10th - that is if he doesn't shoot me!
intrinsic value - given where NG curve is - is $4-5 at best; more likely 3-4. so there is a BIG player premium. If u think NG is going to 5 soon, then stay. o.w., i think its a sell...Im sure they will talk it up on the 10th
then why are NG contracts for 2015 trading at 3.80 and the EIA is lowering price forecast and upping production #s even when rigs are down? BTW, LNG makes $$$$s not matter what the price of NG is...they are fully subscribed on all trains out for 20 years at henry hub +....it doesn't matter if gas is 3 or 5....that is why LNGs price action looks the way ti does
and from the EIA:
The natural gas production forecast in STEO is now informed by EIA’s new monthly Drilling Productivity Report (DPR), which provides a new gauge for looking at oil and natural gas production growth in six key regions.
This month’s STEO raises the projection for marketed natural gas production by 0.4 % in 2013 and 0.9 % in 2014 from the previous STEO. In the past several months, natural gas production has hit record high levels, even as prices declined this summer. The Marcellus Shale has been the main driver of growth. EIA publishes a monthly production estimate for several major producing states (such as Texas, Louisiana, and Oklahoma) and an other states category, which includes the Marcellus. August 2013 production for the other states category was 17% (or 3. 7 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d)) greater thanAugust 2012.
Very strong growth in the Marcellus Shale (and to a smaller extent, the Eagle Ford
Shale) has more than outpaced declines in the Gulf of Mexico and the Hay
From Platts - (we better have a cold winter):
The US Energy Information Administration Tuesday lowered its first-quarter forecast for Henry Hub spot natural gas prices by 20 cents to $3.78/MMBtu.
In its November Short-Term Energy Outlook the agency also cut its Henry Hub spot price forecast for all of 2014 by 16 cents to $3.84/MMBtu.