not sure....Aussie made $100mn sales margin for first 6 mos. of '14 and $180 in operating cashflow - that doesn't include portion of SG&A etc. and that was when IO price averaged much higher than current and forecasted levels. Not sure you'd get much more than $1bn for it and prob. with equity chunk....Canada and coal are both losing money and prices (both ore and coal) are lower. Hard to value those - guess it depends on what u think you can do with costs....but I think $2bn would be high....and then you have to look at what earnings power (e.g., ebitda) you'd have left with just USIO
Let's see....first buy 10% of the company....then get elected and control the company...then use shareholder capital to buy back shares increasing leverage and reducing float...then keep money losing operations and share price continues to get slaughtered...then buy the remaining shares for a song and take private...then wait three years and then IPO for huge return....i'd say My Goncalves et. al. have gotten plenty smart!
yes they did say they would increase capex...but did you notice that production wasn't revised and they said that they were having "issues"? or never mind that the sp took a 10% hit after the CC - HELLO!!
and did u notice the offering was used to pay down debt and reduce leverage both of which are now going back up??? HELLO, HELLO, ANYONE HOME?!?
so a company spends money on a dividend when it doesn't even have enough cash flow to maintain production and that is going to make it go over $5? good grief....i see i didn't miss anything when i was on vaca
ex-employee that's funny....nope just a small guy trying to make some $$$s...ask willy, he knows me....and as i've openly stated I own XCO bonds and recently covered my short in the stock....i do go on vacations, however, and i close down my book so the good news is u probably won't hear from me for a few weeks...enjoy
IF things turn sour, then the distribution would be at serious risk and almost surely the GP would recapitalize. PPS would take a major haircut so I would use a lower add point IN that scenario. I am not trying to be bleak its just the risk - stick a probability on it - who knows....GL
at one point in time, a year + ago, he was bullish...so he's looking to get his chips back....he still looks too optimistic though, imho
book value of trusts are totally meaningless. They are based on the cash raised at IPO, minus depletions and writedowns....totally meaningless
watch it...you're gonna get labeled as an inhumane sadistic butcher that likes to shoot kittens as they try to cross the rio grande
i read it as "we've got the board so don't bother telling us what you did or what your plan was cause it's our football now and if you don't like it go home"....maybe its cause i don't really know the history here......the biq Q is what do the middle guys do and where their loyalties lie...i assume with some free stock options, they'll go with the breeze
aggregate production #s are available in their 10-q/k. Individual well performance, in terms of IP rates et. al., are from CCs and presentations. Decline curves modeled using other info from EF and those counties and XCO's projected EURs
The agreement is for 5 years. The wells "settle" on a quarterly basis starting early next year (first XCO "buy-out"). So it was suppose to rough out at like 25 wells per Q but looks like it will start out smaller batch.
prob. meant for me. Sorry that posting actual information that doesn't hinge on wilbur et. al. owning ~50% of the company bothers you. I'd love to hear someone elucidate the positive.
Would it be better if I said:
XCO won't have to buy those wells at the outrageous price of PV-10 and spend all that cap-ex. That is the silver lining of course.
yes - that is what i am saying....with the caveat that if they are successful and their predictions are correct, then $40 in 2016 is quite the possibility...its just a big IF and they are clearly betting the farm on becoming a non-refiner....glty
Look at the 2015 WTI futures. We are back at the level when the KKR deal was consummated. At current levels, if you believe well costs are 7.5, which is low in light of the issues they are having, then they will barely make the 20% drill return hurdle for KKR. If crude goes any lower, then KKR can argue it does not have to sell the wells back to XCO - they might anyway since they are selling PV-10 - but with crude low, they may hold. Think of that, you only pay 50% for the land, pay 75% for the drill, but get to keep 75% of production. Great deal Doug - but I guess the billionaires knew they were short this option.
i own some calls which look like they will expire worthless. I covered my short. I am long their bonds ('18s). And have a low bid for starter long - hope that helps fella!
D - u might want to look at the tanker space...dry and dirty...i got DSX recently down near $9 and TNK under $4 is decent buy (although the time there to get aggressive was sub 3 a year ago)....still some good upside in that space imho