every day is a new day willy. and so sorry to annoy you. do you often get mad when you are wrong? You should learn to let it go like I have with my call that the dividend was going to be eliminated back six months ago. Of course, i tried to explain to you that paying a dividend with increased debt is the same thing as a cut, but well to no avail....what are ya going to do.
tomorrow is a new day!
and let's just hope they do not eliminate the dividend next week....
and sit around and pump dead stocks like you, willie, without providing any credible analysis (sounds like a flow trader). no thanks...why don't you post another message about how this is the buying opportunity of a lifetime and you just averaged in another 10k shares....
good point - and certainly the reason that these trusts are never valued correctly. If u run his numbers with a flat .14c until termination then the PV-7 (using 7% discount yield) is $6.75. More likely in a few years 2017 and beyond, looking at sub 10c dist per q....no matter how u slice it, current buyers should beware
except that the well production will continue to decline after a year. wells don't become "strippers" with flattish production until well after 5 years.
actually SD can and did change the wells that were placed into the trust not long ago - of course, there are only ~9 wells left to drill so the point is moot
I'm guessing .46, .4, .32, .29, .19 - so slightly higher than yours mostly because i haven't totally bent the decline curve to meet the last 2 Qtr prod. declines (we fit all the data from inception) - so u might be right if the recent data is most relevant. Fact is though we see the totality of cash flows being somewhere btw $5-6 a share so current buyers/owners are not in good shape "long term" - i use quotes because market will probably not react until a year out when the dist really starts to decline.....hard to borrow to short so it can't be pushed lower....of course, recent decline in NG price does not help...
comparing the XCO debacle and price decline today to the price of another at the depth of the financial crisis in Mar '09 makes no sense...fact is he paid too much and he knows it...he is not thinking of "recouping" - he's thinking about what return can i expect based on facts today.
thanks for your advice - still gonna play it from the short side but i covered and i still have some augie calls as a lotto ticket...but given OI, my guess is we won't push thru 5...oh well, i "wasted" 10c