well put...notice the increase in capex planned vs production forecast. pretty clear that the wells are depleting a lot faster than originally advertised (they are not the only ones) and hence the talk about artificial pumps, refracs, cross-unit drilling, etc. etc. If they didn't make money in the last six months, when will they?
c'mon code humor me and do the math....last i checked, i ain't losing...and i've been on this board for over two years...what's it been two days for u....sorry for your loss
seadreams - u are one of the few on this board i respect. u've been here a while and have balanced views. i appreciate your color and i agree that dividends are useless especially when u don't have the cash to cover them plus your cap ex...glty
two things off the bat:
1) they didn't increase 2015 hedging so they are at the mercy of the NG markets
2) increased cap-ex and costs (artificial lifts, gathering...) in order to maintain production
just like my small boutique predicted. too bad i got that dividend elimination call wrong...that just sticks in my claw. I'll guess i will have to write another hit article and sneaking alpha to illustrate to the po-folks why their dividend ain't worth the snit from shinola
according to your posts leo, u have about 1mn shares - I don't know your net worth but u might want to reconsider adding more.
heh willie - Im totally chilled....but what is more important?...being right on a call on the dividend cut or making $$$s being short? Maybe you should write an article. It was quite profitable and maybe you can try to make an argument....hit job coming!
so exco made no money in the first six months of the year when natural gas price averaged $4.90 and hedges were at 4.25. What is going to happen when NG is sub 4 and you hedge at $3.75? I guess we'll just have to talk about revenue and adjusted ebitda. Or better, let's just talk about wilbur.
heh willie - how'd you average in at $4.91 when u posted u bot 9k shares on July 7 on the close at 5.43...what math are you using - i want to "watch and learn"
yeah "watch and learn"
"Willy May, owns 10k at $4.91 not too bad for poor black fisherman compared to Howard Marks's $17 or Wilbur's $10.50."
how to lose $3,200 in 3 trading days....that's a lot of porgies willy
willy - as u know KKR has a required return of 20% and if it is not met, because oil prices actually end up low, then they do not have to except XCO's offer and KKR keeps their 75% share, which they only paid 50% for on the equity (i.e. land)....
as for ending the dividend, when a company has negative cash flow and pays dividends by increasing debt and therefore tangible equity declines, then its the same thing as a cut...your just a lobster on the stove: "it's so nice and warm in here"
okay - had to listen myself and i heard nothing about hedges which means XCO is in a tough spot...do u bite the bullet and hedge at 3.80 insuring net losses or roll the die....does wilbur have loaded dice
with the forward NG strip so depressed, will KKR get their "required" 20% return? If not, then XCO may not get the wells.
"If the fair market value of such group of Approved Wells, in the aggregate, does not equal or exceed the Drilling Return for such group of Approved Wells, then the KKR Parties may, but are not obligated to, accept such EXCO Offer. In the event that EOC (a) fails to purchase a group of wells that the KKR Parties are obligated to sell, (b) falls below a certain percentage of ownership interest in the Area 1 Assets or (c) fails to provide the KKR Parties at least the Drilling Return on all wells drilled on the Area 1 Assets in the first year under the development plan, then the KKR Parties will no longer be obligated to accept EXCO Offers even if the fair market value for a group of wells included in an EXCO Offer exceeds the Drilling Return for such group of wells."