agree w u there especially as it looks like they are going to flip out "Compass Production Partners, LP" and maybe use that as a template....
more like ~1bn +/-....total (at of 12/31) 1.1 tCfe 84% shale, 77% of that ET/LA so about 712 bCFe at $1.40 (ala HBG deal) gets u to $1bn...or take the $1.4bn in net proved reserves from balanace sheet and take the ET/LA portion = $900mn. There is some unproved so call it $1bn....of course there is $1.5bn in debt
if SD is saying that their net reserves are worth twice the market price of their stock then they should leave it in the ground and buyback stock instead of trying to earn at 25% ROE. The fact that they don't is because their declines are bad and they are looking to drill their way out of it with these new mid-con wells.....simply, shares are not worth $10-12....
it was negative. For first six months , they mad $17mn in DCF vs $105mn in distributions to partners which includes $8mn + to the GP for incentive distribution rights. IDRs are based on distributions not DCF. This is the allure of issuing MLPs - as long as you keep the dividend, regardless of how you fund it, the market rewards with a premium. For the year, I am projecting a DCF coverage of .5 and .75 for next year. Leverage is high but looks like the revamped their covs. and issued unsecured debt (god bless the Fed!). I think this trades $25-30 for next year, especially since they really should be issuing equity....
well he rightly pointed out that if the shares are "worth" $10-12, insuring a 100% return, then why the heck are they drilling at 60% IRR before overhead, interest, etc... the answer is pretty simple
very astute gasman
over the next 3 years, XCO will need an additional $400-500 mn, beyond free cash flow, to fund their drilling and KKR purchases. This year alone, they will have $275 of free free cash flow (EBITDA - cash interest expense - dividiends) vs a spend need of $425 (their foreceast) - next year that will be higher given the need to spend $$s for the KKR buy-outs. One can talk about adjusted EBITDA all you want, but when you keep piling on debt to pay a dividend when your leverage is already high means the equity is being negatively affected. Some people get fooled into thinking they are being paid to wait w/o realizing the pps goes down with every div payment. Not only should they cut the dividend but they should infuse more equity if they are true believers at this price.
A dividend cut should have minimal impact on price (in theory) because what value there is here is basically the value of reserves in 2018, which as everyone knows, is about $4/share today.
sold today N of $8...i don't see how they make their ebitda forecast even with better collections...more likely they make $45 or $50 tops giving them 8-1 leverage....i think they had to keep the guidance given debt covenant - the good news is they don't have any borrowings but the bad news is they are CF -tive and not much cash....need to see a knock-out quarter soon...glty
not bad - revenues sequentially were up 9% (netting out the term loan income). Of course, sequentially down from Q1. Costs flat. Interest expense down. DCF up from 7c yoy. Nothing on the commercial and technical management operations, of course, since it closed on Aug 1. It all depends on rates from here. Looking forward to the Sep 30 meeting which is open to all investors in NYC
i'm still negative. Just don't want to get into a pissin match with bulls...mostly from a risk perspective as I don't see dist coverage until 2016 so a lot can go wrong btw now and then. They've decided to lever up hard and spend. I think the stock price should reflect that. Hopefully, they issued some stock in July through their ATM....gl
it really pains me tradertrend that you are in such a huff and I give you so much angst. Maybe you should take up yoga. If you'd like to start a post to discuss all my "flat-out wrong calls on many other stocks " I would love to have a gentile conversation.
only 70% is HBP and the reason they are not producing is because their acreage is sub-par and not blocked up so while most operators can make handsome $s at $3 an mCfe, XCO needs much higher. Given the recent transaction by PDC puts XCO's position at maybe $1.50 a share at best.
u need to take a chill pill...calling everyone an idiot that doesn't share your inane view which, by the way, smarter people than you have been espousing for the last three years...