i read the Zachs and I can see their point if u are looking at their performance - its been abysmal and it was clear they were not going to make their target - i don't really track the analysts ratings as generally they are late to the parties. They wrote down everything 360+ due and even shorter buckets got taken down - will that be enough? conservative? who knows. Clearly management has some "image" problems. The bottom line is that the preferred will boost the credit as now there will only be sub 150 out on the bank lines, mostly term. The cov remains at 7.25/1 so this was probably part of that deal. Numerically, the preferred really doesn't impact the enterprise value/share by that much even counting full dilution. Yes, commoners won't get as much with the rights as CCM but if u bot some shares here, u'd get your fill. if and its an IF, they hit their target for '15, then pps will move well above the preferred strike....gl
so you are saying if drilling dries up it doesn't matter? okie dokie....
UEO guidance is for ~35mn for '15 - probably optimistic. I think u'd be very lucky to get a 10x multiple on forward in today's environment.
Baker Huges Ohio count is at 31 for last week vs 35 prior (consistent with OHIO DNR count of Utica at 33 as of 3/7). This is down from a high of 48 early Jan. +capex plans/statements by the likes of CHK, GPOR, PDCE etc. that should decline into mid 20s by spring. The declines are just au' natural - should kick in Q3. Not enuf rigs running to keep production flat now that a decent #wells on line.
Not sure about the depreciation argument - its more a matter of whats the flow gonna look like
why do longs believe they are going to get such whopping price like 700 for UEO? They had 36 in ebitda for '14. What is '15/'16 going to look like with big production declines and rigs down? I think they'd be lucky to get back there money, maybe 400. And that's the problem: JW is going to balk at that price and its back to square one again. So market needs to price in a lower distribution for '15/'16 with margin. $10 - or under as u say - is probably the target unless they do something now...
RBB - lets be serious...the Utica acreage is pretty much worth zilch at the moment. Maybe one could get sub 10k per for Carrol co and that's just for blockage. Not only is the commodity price not supportive but there are/will be plenty of distressed assets up soon. The hope here is they sell of the midstream for 500 and roll it back into a distressed assets to get a production boost - creates a taxation event but it is what it is. Knowing EVEP though, they will probably take an expensive drop down at unit holders expense and keep charging big SG&A fees. I would assume a $1.50 distribution for '16 + implying $10/shr is not unheard of. Mercer does not impress me to date.
BIOS was worth $5 before the offering (go back to my prev. posts) or $345mn on 69mn shares. Now they raise 82.5mn in capital with share count going to say 90 fully diluted (although warrant strikes are otm now). So equity value is 428/90= $4.75. One might have stretched the case and say BIOS was worth. This was a 13x EBITDA multiple with 300mn debt purchase...so not much new unless u think this is a bad omen ... the Q is do current holders want the rights or more equity at this price?
i guess being above $5 doesn't hurt...the 23mn secondary was swallowed with ease...that shud tell u something....should be a great story next week.
i don't disagree with your statement but they (TK) made it clear at analyst day that TNK is in fleet/balance sheet "repair" mode and thus dividend hikes are a secondary consideration at the moment. Maybe in 2016, if market continues to recover, but I'd be astonished (but pretty happy) if they went back to variable pay in '15.
he'll be OK for sure. Notice they didn't guide down SG&A for '15 (nor LOE). Fascinating to me that with energy prices down 40+% and distribution cut by 35%, they can't seem to reduce their costs nor pay...strange...and JW's self-deprecating manner has worn thin....
i wouldn't expect div policy to change - in fact, i wouldn't look for even an increase until 2016 as market recovers. better to reinvest the CFs than pay a bigger div and then have to issue stock to grow.....
prob not fair to use cost/boe from last reports going forward. Just prod. taxes alone will be down w 40% drop in $ oil sales. Then CO2 is correlated not to mention direct fuel costs and chems etc. Id gues cash costs will be down $5/boe from '14 if crude sticks here