that's chump change...walker and pals bot PDH for a song and are making a killing with low propane prices...he's got many faces...secondary is coming....
it will be a combination of debt and equity. They already have an ATM in place and probably issued some this quarter. I would expect a secondary potentially adding 10-20mn shares say at $5. On the debt side, it will be in concert with a amended credit line - extending maturity and adjusting terms accordingly. If one doesn't like expanding capital during what appears to be the start of a multi-year cycle, then you can always buy tbills....
smells like a big margin call or tap on the shoulder to hedge...all these hedges and floors the E&Ps bought over last year - who sold them? I'd wait until u hear of a fund or a trading desk imploding...
correct - ~$47 /boe cash cost (inc. interest) and ~$68 on GAAP basis. Q3 cash cost was about 45 and change so maybe that will stick. @$75 WTI (around analyst day), they were to generate ~250 mn in free cash after reduced capex of 550mn and production flat. At $60, i see cash flow flat with flat production - might see only 30c div if they wanted a 50mn buffer. Remember, they sold 65 puts (whos bright idea was that? Craig?) so no protect below. With div flat at 25c, they cash flow flat down to $57 WTI (avg all '15). Leverage would be above 4 but everything termed out (inc. new bank agree) - covenants on leverage? not sure
agree: not exact apps to apps but compare to say HOLX (my pick) - it trades 10+% op CF yield, about 9x adj EBITDA, 13 PE, leverage coming down ~4, margins improving. Generates tons of FCF and the worst is behind them - maybe not as much growth potential as BIOS but the inflection is here....g/l
they really can't tap their credit line as they have to stay below the 25% used threshold to avoid covenants triggering especially when those covenant levels revert in 1Q15. To me a rights offering is a decent idea giving current investors (gabelli n oscar) the opportunity to add. certainly one to watch
not sure I agree on a that...i think they shud be able to generate some cash in Q4 - maybe enough to pay off credit line but much depends on their ability to push through the 15mn in cost savings next year. They were calling for 60mn in ebitda for 2014 as recently as last quarter - it was obvious back then that that was a serious reach. Now it looks like 45mn is probable. They are guestimating $60mn for 2015 but I take that with a bit of salt. Let's say 50mn - interest alone is 40mn. Covenants don't come into play until they borrow $19mn but the leverage ratios decline starting 1Q15. My own feeling is this would be valued at 11x forward ebitda if it had half its current debt so (11x50-210)/69 or ~= $5/share.
i noticed they dropped their adj-EBITDA guidance (55-60) - they've got 31mn for Q1-3; maybe another 15 in seasonally strong Q4 gets u to 45mn adj-EBITDA for the year (tops)....leverage high - does it break the covenant or did they ammend? i agree - not a lot of room to wiggle.
the lost days due to drydocking is small vs their total revenue days...amounts to 2c or so on earnings/share...the actual drydock expense is amortized over ~5 years. There are very few ships in '15/'16 that will require spec. survey....25k TCEs are the magic number for TNK to not only pay down its debt bomb but buy additional ships to keep their average fleet age constant...
well i wasn't here when that happened so i guess I've got no complaints....i don't blame them for not predicting oil dropping to $80...of course, i wish they had paid down some debt so that they cud hunt around now looking for deals.
why do i bother mikey - i guess i like you down deep...i stated "basically fired" - you have heard of figurative speech?
and what about Mr. Nicholas J. Rutigliano and Mr. William S. Fehsenfeld resigning...just another sign all is well?
c'mon Mikey - be serious - she's now in charge of a sandbox...call it what you want. but she was fired
Jennifer G. Straumins, age 41, has been appointed executive vice president – strategy and development. Ms. Straumins had served as the president and chief operating officer of the Company, positions which have been eliminated under the realignment, since 2011.