simple exercise, compare XCO to FSNGX (nat gas mutual fund). YTD, xco down 12%, index up 18%. And that includes the jump in NG prices in the spring. maybe our newest member to the board, TraderTrend, can explain. I am sure it is all part of Mr. Ross's grand plan? Or is XCO's abysmal performance simply because the dividend wasn't cut (yet!).
Seems like they've passed off the XCO pumping to the junior staff
ahhh - does it really matter whether the div was cut or more important that the sp is down 20% ? I've heard u'r arguments for the last two years but I am sure you think you are special and have got this all figured out...glty
tt - sorry but you are being naive...i will give u four examples: CAN, CXS, KFN, PDH - all four were taken out of my hands. I had profits on each _only_ because I got in a dirt cheap price. They were taken out at a premium but far below where I targeted. It happens all the time and to think otherwise is naive
he got 39k shares just a month ago at $0 and 125k options (10y struck at 5.17) so that is mighty nice of the young whipper-snapper to spend $9k of is hard earned cash!
leo - he offers $5.60 a 20% premium to today's share - has wall street back him up with nice presentations - let the lawsuits fly but fail - he takes it - u lose - he then slices and dices; ipo's a few MLPs with fat yields and high multiples; keeps some NG in the ground for himself when it gets to $6 in 2018 and he does very, very well....u, not
well put...notice the increase in capex planned vs production forecast. pretty clear that the wells are depleting a lot faster than originally advertised (they are not the only ones) and hence the talk about artificial pumps, refracs, cross-unit drilling, etc. etc. If they didn't make money in the last six months, when will they?
c'mon code humor me and do the math....last i checked, i ain't losing...and i've been on this board for over two years...what's it been two days for u....sorry for your loss
seadreams - u are one of the few on this board i respect. u've been here a while and have balanced views. i appreciate your color and i agree that dividends are useless especially when u don't have the cash to cover them plus your cap ex...glty
two things off the bat:
1) they didn't increase 2015 hedging so they are at the mercy of the NG markets
2) increased cap-ex and costs (artificial lifts, gathering...) in order to maintain production
just like my small boutique predicted. too bad i got that dividend elimination call wrong...that just sticks in my claw. I'll guess i will have to write another hit article and sneaking alpha to illustrate to the po-folks why their dividend ain't worth the snit from shinola
heh willie - Im totally chilled....but what is more important?...being right on a call on the dividend cut or making $$$s being short? Maybe you should write an article. It was quite profitable and maybe you can try to make an argument....hit job coming!
so exco made no money in the first six months of the year when natural gas price averaged $4.90 and hedges were at 4.25. What is going to happen when NG is sub 4 and you hedge at $3.75? I guess we'll just have to talk about revenue and adjusted ebitda. Or better, let's just talk about wilbur.
heh willie - how'd you average in at $4.91 when u posted u bot 9k shares on July 7 on the close at 5.43...what math are you using - i want to "watch and learn"
yeah "watch and learn"
"Willy May, owns 10k at $4.91 not too bad for poor black fisherman compared to Howard Marks's $17 or Wilbur's $10.50."
how to lose $3,200 in 3 trading days....that's a lot of porgies willy