Because it is a substantial transaction and the "framework agreement" is equivalent to a Letter of Intent, which makes it material news, and that needs to be disclosed in a timely fashion. So, they are doing what our rules say they should do, which is release the news.
They have done that before and disappointed. That's why the stock priced low. One of these days, though, maybe shareholders will get lucky. I hope so, but not giving it reasonable odds.
Not if you knew there was a deal pending, right? And, if you got them that cheap, I would guess you would be or were an insider. So, if you are correct, and insiders or former insiders are selling, there probably is no takeover.
Just my bias. Nothing factual to back this up.
Looks like they are saying something to the effect, "Google ought to be interested..." It would seem very counterproductive if they were working on a deal and Wunderlich spilled the beans, if they are directly involved or not. It may be logical, but without real negotiation, it seems more like hype.
That's doesn't mean a deal won't happen, just that Wunderlich sounds full of gas. Just my opinion with no information to back it up.
Good luck, longs.
There are always lists of situations that did this or that. A list does not hide the risk. I suppose I could give you a list of those that won big on #44 on the roulette wheel. That doesn't make it a sound bet.
Good luck, though.
I should not answer your first two questions and you shouldn't believe what I post, if I did answer them. These boards are filled with BS'rs.
As for the investing strategy you noted, I do wish you well and lots of returns. Sadly, my experience in doing what you propose is, at most, a temporary bump followed by more losses. The times have been rare that I have bought stocks steadily declining in price yet made a profit. And, those were not this kind of situation, and they had different kinds of risk. With what you are proposing, I have lost so much money it's nearly heart breaking. I do wish you a grand fortune however.
Sorry, but have thought that before on other stocks and been surprised. Sometimes, short cover with a new offering at a low price. Sometimes, they don't cover at all when the company folds.
What's scary about a large short position is it could be a great buying opportunity but it can also signal a total collapse of the company. With the much greater flow of information to hedge funds and big funds that only trade on "less distributed" if not "inside" information it is far easier for what I consider a dirty investor to trade well due to having that information. I recall a party that successfully argued that the information on which he traded was not "inside" because the company didn't have it yet -- so "how could it be inside" he argued! He had it before the company had it. This is not impossible on smaller O&G companies like this one. Let's say someone has information about END from Nexen that even END doesn't have, yet. There is a LOT of information flow out there such that challenging a large short position may be exactly what they want -- more of your money. I hope it's not so in this case, but have seen it enough to be cautious.
I have been watching END much like the blister on my leg. Yes, I am done with management. The assets are not sufficiently significant to outweigh the actions of management. Plus, I relied on management for the valuation and representation of those assets. I wish I had not.
I believe most brokerage firms lend out shares even when they tell customers they won't.
Perhaps a shower is in order? Try a scent-free soap, too.
The concern on the debt refinancing is, can they do it? Lenders give good terms when a borrow doesn't need the money. Conversely, if END can't show good coverage of the debt service, why would a lender step up with a better rate? The ability to refinance at a significantly lower rate and better terms will be a sign that at least those lenders have great confidence in the company.
Anyone borrower can say they intend to refinance to save money. Doing it, successfully, is another issue.
I hope they do get it done, but got tired of waiting for performance to come close to promises and/or expectations.
Actually, bruns, it's a 25% mark up and a 20% gross profit margin. Same as buying something for a dollar and selling it for two...a 100% mark up but a 50% margin. Beermenow5 was correct.
Agreed, to some extent. The liquidity is terrible, so it's very difficult to sell, sometimes. Yesterday and today, it seems someone wants the stock enough to keep hitting the ask, which is odd since the company isn't close to a quarterly report. Odd to just suddenly see value and go after it enough to raise the price per share. Unless, of course, there is something significant happening, like it's being acquired and the buyer is connected to the company and/or an accountant, lawyer or other adviser/insider. Otherwise, very odd. I'm glad the price is going up but am annoyed when information seems to leak out and enough act on it to raise the price. Nowadays, it can be someone reading emails, too. What a world!
Good luck, longs.
Generally, when that is true, those "in the know" or relatives/friends buy the stock. Since the price is slipping, I am skeptical. At the current price, the stock is as good or better than an option because it has no expiration date except the survivability of the company, which similarly impacts call options.
My loyalty to employees and managements in companies in which I invest is quite strong. However, I look quite carefully at situations that seem to be a misrepresentation. The critical factor with END is, I believe, they represented they had an agreement with Nexen to run AT LEAST 100, with a strong potential of more, over the platform, which 100 seemed to be sufficient to keep them alive and productive. However, later they indicated the minimum was 60, with no reference to the previous "100" comments.
Others have posted that the price of gas has declined. This may be; however, a good deal of the production was hedged with straight hedges and the forward sales. At least that's what we were told. So, a short term price decline would have less impact, and while I would be concerned about it, I would also have tempered my concern.
The big one, which I consider a lie or an intentional misstatement, or a very unfortunate but very significant error, was the minimum flows allowed. That difference is live or die, it seems. Then, add the gas price declines, and things looks scarey.
The final straw for me is the incredible price declines, with large volume, and no comment from management. If I ran a company where the price dropped this hard this fast, I would want to know why and I would communicate to my shareholders. Not doing so, in my book, is a breach of fiduciary responsibility. It's just too material. The only conclusion I can draw is they don't respect shareholders the way I want to be respected. I want the truth on significant developments and I want to be aware of their responsiveness when something bad is happening to the company. I don't see either here. So, I have been selling.
That doesn't mean they are filing for BK, but it sure does smell like it, and allowing that stench to prevail is also a violation of their duty to shareholders, in my opinion. So, either way, I no longer have confidence in this team.