manipulation? No way that could be possible on wall street....
All nonsense. Options are for idiots. Anybody tells you outside of a bank that they are making money on options....the question becomes why aren;t you a billionaire. IF you can predict EXACTLY when a stock is going to to be somewhere, then...there is no reason that person should not be the wealthiest person in the world.
Warren Buffet doesn't touch options and never has and that is the way I go. I OWN my stock and as long as that company is in busiess, they can;t take my money away. No bs of "expiration". Welcome to Atlantic city with that idea.
YEs, I understand there is competetion, but at some point, a company has proven its dominance and reliability come earnings every year to report solid numbers and to stick around. Compared to other companies, THIS is a valuable company to own.
They delve further and they learn that while margins got killed with the rise in sheepskin...management has innovated and is coming out with a product called UGG PURE to stem the bleeding, regain margin, and decrease reliance on sheepskin, with over 90% of the public not noticing the difference.
Wow...Wall street continues to say. How did i miss that? They also notice that this innovation should help the company get back to mid double digit profit margins in the coming years. They also see the company coming out with new leather products to attract consumers for other seasons, again continuing to build a company with more structure around it due to it becoming more diversified.
Wall Street continues to be amazed....and this 25 year old just goes....duh!
It seems to me a lot of people don;t understand the reasoning behind this stocks rise.
This comes from a fundamental misunderstanding of how the market values things and WHY the market values certain companies a certain way.
So in complete arrogance, let me break it down.
PE is there for a reason. A company can be valued anyway the MARKET wants to value it. It can be as undervalued as the market wants it to be(DEckers) or as overvalued as the market wants it to be(NEtflix, Tesla,the whole market, etc).
So YOUR job is to question the market and questio the value it is giving business's because the nature of business is competettion and a company on top today can be the worst company next year.
No business lasts forever(escept seemingly insurance ;) and apparently now banking as they just use our government to bail them out when they bring the WORLD economy to its knees(without anyone going to prison) but when you STEAL something from a store worth $3, you will get arrested. Apparently, its okay to steal trillions and not get arrested.
But enough of that.
So why was Deckers valued at just 1B 14 months ago and today 3B and in my opinion 36 months from now anywhere between 7-10B? Well, the MARKET followed the interest rates, rise in sheepskin, warmer winters, and calls of a FAD and basically priced in the wors(low PE of less than 10 at this stocks lowest point 14 months ago).
But now that we now have evidence(Shocking) of two cold winters, people buying uggs and continuing to keep it popular for 10+ years now...PE comes in to question.
Wall Street starts to pay attention(this whole last year and especially this last month) and goes....hey, I remember all the girls loving UGGS 10 years ago(2005) when I was in 10th grade(oh wait...is that just me?) and THEY ARE STILL AS POPULAR AS EVER and GROWING INTERNATIONALLY...wow...how is this stock NOT AT ALL-TIME HIGHS?
WHY is wall street not giving it a much higher premium for its dominance come winter
to have this on money managers end of year books is hard to look past.
It is impossible to now deny that UGGS are no insanely popular and on viirtually every girls christmas wish.
It is hard now for WALL STREET to not pay attention to managements words and calls for likely mid-double digit profit margins in the future.
It is impossible to overlook the scenario that carl icahn saw with netflix when it was at 60 over a year ago, and everyone realized how many shorts were on the wrong side of the trade...it seemed like easy pickings.
I write this wondering how this was overlooked this whole time...but now with the media paying attentiona nd naming the brand and the undeniable scuttlebut research anyone can do themselves by looking at what girls are wearing on their feet or visiting an UGG store themselves....it is just hard for me to believe people don't smell blood.
well look at that folks.
The "brain trust" in the last 3 months. lol
Adami- "I don't like it here at 53". Good call bro. Yea(I point at the camera like you)
miramahi, as the guy who has the answer to everything.
1)stock might need to catch its breath after this point as we are going into the end of the year and there should be some proift taking along.
The flips die though is more money managers buy into this due to how well we have done because as we all now know, wall street doesn;t really built the market, but they need to keep painting it to their "intelligent" investors that they are investing in the best stuff(even if a large percentage of that years returns were already had). So they can be buying this up to make their stock list look all nice with the popular names they are now hearing talked about all day.
2) Something that people seem to just not understand is that they don;t quite get what happened here over the last 24 months. $$$$ got ugly. Sheepskin started getting out of control, weather was not being its usual weather self, and interest rates became so absurdly cheap that nearly every stock paying a dividend beat it and made a lot of stocks uglier in comparison when it came to "risk".
But now interest have gone up 80% over the last 13 months. Sheepskin started decling for 2013 by 11% compared to 2012. Management came out with the innovation of UGG PURE which going foward would stem the bleeding and actually bring back some margin. The weather started to play nice and did its job of being cold at the right times last year and now this year.
Management is growing their international story which should include increase in revenues.
So yes, the market took away the benefit of the doubt and shorts didn;t help by piling on 24 months ago....but now information has changed and now since the market is foward thinking(right?), the PE needs to go back up based on the resiliency of this brand and managements initiatives to grow revenues and grow profit.
So....I'm not entirely sure what leg shorts are standing on at this point.
Well being that I am responding apparently to someone who IS NOT reading anything I am writing, but yet is addressing me(okay, sure kiddo)...
I understand everyone views the market from different perspectives.
I just keep trying to just point out that yes...my viewpoint is better ;)
The statistics back it up.
Always good to hear someone else's opinion.
I by no means pretend that we are going to an 7-8B valuation this year. No...too much too fast.
I DO believe we hit 5B valuation by september. Yes sir I do.
Shorts thesis is gone. See, a lot of investors don't ask why is a stock where it is, what am I not seeing that they are.
So...the question is....what is the shorts are seeing despite the stock doubling in the last 8 months and up 200% off the lows set 13 months ago?
What am I missing? I'm missing NOTHING.
THEY made a grievous error. They bet against the stock when it faced a perfect storm of rising sheepskin costs, wamrer winters and low interest rate environment.
But really, that was going to last forever? No cold winter ever again? No credit to a management that built this brand from less than 250M in revenues 10 years ago, to over 1.4B that they would figure out how to tackle THAT problem?
Just absurd how most people don;t think that the market can just be very short sighted. In fact, it is precisely what it is once in awhile which is when guys like carl icahn and warren buffet get hungry.
Now it is great to have them as they will all have to cover as time, quarters pass and UGGS stays relevant and grows internationally.
Its over for them. I'm just waiting to get even wealthier.