The only wave your going to see is a Tsunami when USG reports larger losses then last quarter and become insolvent. You should buy some puts and hedge your position.
All they have to do is lose 6 million and their shareholder equity will ne NEGATIVE and they'll be INSOLVENT. They lost 13 million last quarter and 29 million the quarter before. I will not be wrong this time and with any luck they'll report a larger loss then last quarter and the stock will plummet.
Amazing they will have lost over 2 billion in equity in just a few years.
PS: IBM missed badly tonight, So tomorrow should be a real bad day, Unless you've been buying FAZ. of course.
Probably, I am short the S&P using FAZ and I've been buying more all week. When the Cypress run on the banks starts watch out. Bloomberg TV was saying that Russia is going to suck their money out the first chance they get. I hope your all hedged for the drop that's coming. Even though the US economy and housing look healthy, contagion is about to hit Europe when Cypress banks collapse. If you lived in Italy or Spoain would you leave your money in the bank?
Heavy winter snow storm in Texas and Oklahoma is slowing construction in the South West now. It's moving towards Chicago and points East. That's another week of missed construction for those areas.
It's highly likely that USG will report larger loses in this winter quarter and also become insolvent. What will happen to the stock price then. With gasoline price soaring homebuyers will slow weekend drives to look at homes. With the recent storm "Q" hitting the Northern states and the heavy rains in the south has again slowed homebuilding this week.
Get ready to buy USG at amuch lower price in April.
No, I never broke down the wallboard numbers even when I worked for NGC. I'm more about economic and weather trends that will impact business activity.
Here's the definition of insolvenecy that USG is about to define.
insolvency n. 1) the condition of having more debts (liabilities) than total assets which might be available to pay them, even if the assets were mortgaged or sold.
Housing starts showed some winter volatility in January by declining and showing possible lingering effects from Hurricane Sandy. However, permits continued to trend upward at a moderate pace. In January, housing starts declined 8.5 percent, following a sharp rebound of 15.7 percent in December.
The heavy snow in the North East has knocked 2 or 3 weeks off the winter building quarter. So SANDY rebuilding will be postponed, probably till March. I has also been a very wet winter, which has slowed foundation excavations of commercial and residential properties.
So all USG has to lose is another 19+ million and they'll have a negative equity. It's Hard to believe this company once had 2.2 billion in equity. I guess you can chalk that up to great management (?)
PS: my only alias is QUICKMOVESMILES
I don't see USG benefiting from Sandy rebuilding until April depending how mild the winter is. However the other 4 competitors will be also pricing agressively for that Sandy business.
Tomorrow I expect to see USG report a larger the expected loss in the 50-75 million range and to report full year losses in excess of 160 million. They will probably not become insolvent until the first quarter numbers are released.
I expect a bigger miss because the intial drop off in business caused by Sandy.
I'm touched you guys really missed me.
I'll be back at the end of this qtr or maybe next when USG becomes insolvent. They still have too much competition to become profitable. Anybody know how many quarters they've now lost money.
Is it 21 or 22 quarters now of multimillion dollar losses? They once had a net worth of 2.2 billion and now their networth is only 109 million. They are doing better they've only lost 113 million so far in 2012. I estimate they'll lose a little over 150 million for the full year.
They'll get little help from Sandy rebuilding during these winter months, unless it's another mild winter.
My forecast is the market has peaked today and will now tumble HARD coming into Feb 2013 as the Republicans dig in hard against Obama's over spending.
I've started buying FAZ yesterday and today. We'll see how I do buy the middle of Feb 2013 after the market plunges.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
They will not see it this cheap for quite a while.
Watch the TV show and you'll realize that this phenomenon is spreading. It will definitely keep gun sales soaring. As the economic system begins to breakdown gun sales will soar.
A Hyatt gun shop in Charlotte NC said gun sales have gone through the roof since Obama was elected. It will be a few days before the upgrades start.
Zillow's ranking has now dropped from 107 to 116, so this stock is definitely going lower. Especially when Congress partially or fully removes the mortgage deduction from the average homeowner. Then watch interest in housing drop like a rock. Congress will most likely do this in early 2013, if not sooner.
Wait till the fiscal cliff removes the mortgage deduction either partially or in Full. Then watch home sales drop along with housing related stocks. It should happen in early 2013, if not sooner.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
I haven't posted anything on this board since early August and only a few times on Zillow's board. So I think you've got the wrong guy. I'm playing mostly ETF's these days. The economic twists and turns are easier to predict then any companies financial progress or lack there of, as in USG's case.
I'm still planning to return to this board when USG becomes insolvent in this quarter or next.
Hope everyone had a good Thanksgiving.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Alexa tracks website hits and Zillow was ranked 92 last summer and just this week has dropped from 105 to 107 today. This means the consumer is losing interest in housing for the winter and thus this quarter revenues and earnings will miss. This must be why Zillow management forecasted lower, being they saw website traffic slowing.
The smart money is not willing to commit any money towards ANY stocks until the fiscal cliff is resolved. It will create an excellent buying opportunity in December. So get completely in cash and wait for the cliff's resolution and then watch the market soar. (probably just before Christmas.)