Yes they may want to test samples from the production machine, but that testing is likely to be just verifying a sample of the characteristics to make sure that it is the same quality and performance as they have been getting from the prototype, but that could be done as part of a production order.
These customers are very savy and technically competent so I believe their main concern will be to see the machine produce lengths to meet their specific requirements so that they have confidence that STI can deliver their order in a timely manner. I don't believe they will completely redo all the testing they've done to get to that point.
Your last point is indeed significant and JQ has emphasized that as part of their strategy to close a deal. But I believe that the customers must 1st have good evidence that STI can deliver what they need in the quantities needed is the highest priority.
I think the next PR we will hear will be about the completion of the installation of the new machine.
OK the encapsulation layer, as I understand it, encloses the built up HTS wire and protects the internal structure of the wire from exterior environmental influences. However, that encapsulation layer, e.g silver, copper, brass, if exposed to air or any environment containing oxygen, will eventually oxidize and could break down. I believe the "protective" layer being referenced is not any material that can be applied by the deposition process and so must be done by a 3rd party. Of course JQ cannot disclose what that material is because it is probably a proprietary secret of their customer.
The following is a quote from the transcript (corrected by me) in response to Jon Hickman's question where he asks a question about the cable demo "24 pieces of wire"
Well, I mean that’s -- we’re still working through some issues on … and I think we’ve talked about this a little bit on the last call,.. THE PROTECTIVE LAYER they want to put on the wire before they put it in their cable, which is again KIND OF OUTSIDE WHAT WE DO. So we’re working with them just to say okay well you need the particular cap layer let’s make sure exactly what that is and THEN WE WORK WITH THE FOLKS WHO ACTUALLY DO THAT FOR A LIVING, uh just to get that done. But as far as the pieces we built internally we’re done with that and now we’re working through the other issues with them."
So I understand that STI can use their RCE system to put encapsulation layers of silver, copper and perhaps other material, but the above quote indicates that the customer wants something different that STI does not do and so STI is working with somebody else (aka WITH THE FOLKS WHO ACTUALLY DO THAT FOR A LIVING) who is a 3rd party.
BTW that transcript has many many errors. I corrected the major errors by listening to the tape and editing the transcript from SA. Did this with the latest as well, but there aren't as many errors.
Based on the trading activity at the time the warrant holders bought those shares and warrants their hasn't been any room to short. They bought the shares (+warrants) for $1.79 and the warrant exercise price is $2.57. While there was a lot of activity on the day they announced the deal (6 Aug 2013) there wasn't a lot of volume in the 2-3 weeks before the deal. Certainly not enough to hedge 10 million warrants. Moreover, there has been a significant short position for quite a while. That's not to say that MDB hasn't been playing around either.
Large orders going through early today. So did some news leak out? Are the shorts starting to cover? Looks like it could be an interesting day! GLTA
I read through the article and there was nothing really new in it. But it might attract the attention of others into RESN and that could be good for SCON. In the long run they (RESN) have to prove the worth of their technology to the end consumers; (the cell phone manufacturers and the big wireless companies who sell/give the phones away.
What I like most about the PR is this statement:
"At CIGRE, we will join with several of our customers to share the value proposition SFCLs and superconducting cables offer to enhance the capacity and improve the survivability and reliability of the grid."
This is cooperative marketing by STI and their direct customers, both of whom are targeting the target customers. These customers are the utility companies responsible for generating and distributing electrical power across the globe.
The period of warrant conversions was announced by STI in the March 27th PR:
"...announced that more than 1.4 million warrants to purchase shares, which were issued as part of an underwritten public offering that closed in August 2013, have been exercised from January 1 through March 21, 2014....'
Then take a look at the 1 yr chart. I think it is pretty obvious. The sales of the shares from the warrants did spur a lot of activity but because of the controlling hedge fund/MM's they rolled the price back to the current levels. I think they are the biggest shorts going...and guilty of big time manipulation. I believe that shorting should be banned in all forms. It's just a legal tool for stock price manipulation for the big guys. For the normal investor or even day traders, it's nothing but a legalized form of gambling!
I disagree. The prior warrant exercise took place over the period 1 January through 23 March and there were only 1.2 or 1.3 million warrants exercised. You can see the start of their sales he shares they acquired on around 6 or 7 January and they were in bursts scattered over the entire period. Take a good look at the charts for that period and you will see what I mean. I think they will do the same thing over the next couple of months for about the same quantity of shares +\- a few hundred thousand shares.
We will just have to watch and wait and then we will find out who's the closest!
RESN has a low risk high reward business model which will have a relatively low G&A expense figure.
They are basically an engineering services company with patent protected proprietary technology which they do not disclose directly...only the results of that technology in the form of a filter chip design which their customer is responsible (and bears all the risks) for manufacturing and distribution. If their technology is as good as they say, they should have a very high profit margin. However, they will be expected to share those profits as dividends while they simultaneously invest back into their own business to grow their customer base.
Increasing price on increasing volume!. Trades with varying size blocks. Perhaps the investors are starting to exercise warrants and sell the shares into the market. This will of course provide STI with cash they need to continue moving forward to full scale production and orders.
(cont'd from prior). But it is my belief that they won't place an order until they feel confident that STI can deliver the wire they need in both quality and quantity. IMO they may have met the "quality" part for one or more, but they can't yet promise to meet the "quantity" part until the new machine is installed, tested, and capable of producing wire to any given set of performance specifications on demand or at least to a given customers specs on demand. So even if the RCE-CDR machine were up and running at 100%, if the encapsulation problem for the cable demo project wasn't solve there would be no order. HOWEVER, there are other customers whose wire is not likely quite so technical and they wouldn't hesitate to order if STI were meeting their specs and the new machine is up an running. To quote JQ (1Q2014CC) "We continue to prioritize customers’ deliveries based on the size and near-term timing of the opportunity."
The issue has been with the Cable Demo customer wire as far as I can determine based on the CC records and what JQ has said in response to questions. But this is their oldest customer. First they had problems with the basic HTS deposition process to be able to control the process at the right temperature and pressure etc. to create a specific formulation. This would likely include the silver buffer layer which protects the YBCO material from degrading from acids used when a copper encapsulation layer is applied. That later part concerning the copper encapsulation may be process specific and might not be needed with STI RCE-CDR process.
The delay doesn't necessarily impede other customers. JQ has stated on numerous occasions that they prioritize the use of their existing 100 M machine, and they will likely continue to prioritize orders when the new machine is installed and both are up and running. What we do know is that the cable demo project requires 24 wires, whose individual lengths are less than 10 meters. Since they have the recipe for 500 A/cm wire and it is repeatable (according to JQ) they should have no problem producing those whenever needed. Because of the involvement of a 3rd party for the encapsulation layer (or a part of it) we cannot determine what impact that has. Nor do we know what the specific problems are. But even while this has all been going on, STI has delivered HTS wire to customers. According to JQ to a total of 11 customers in all between 1 April and 1 August, 5 of which are stage 2. Those 5 would likely include the cable demo customer. In the 1Q 2014 CC he indicated 3 shipments to stage 2 customers. So yes the main goal is to get a production order, but those stage 2 customers want to make sure they have the correct recipe for the wire application they need. For all we know they have changed their requirements as they have proceeded and ordered new batches of wire to modified specifications. (cont'd)
Now you are changing your tune, instead of :
"Why in the world do you not send DUMMY wire to the vendor and hav them work out the process on SCRAP MATERIALl?!? And don’t try to argue that it processes differently on GOOD wire than BAD wire. That is NONSENSE. " Yes, right! (NOT!) Funny that the presentation shows how they did pre-post electrical testing for all those mechanical stress tests....to prove that the performance didn't degrade. Face it "fool" that statement of yours (like most you make) is absolutely inane!
So you now claim they should have used 200A wire after I demonstrated that mechanical testing also needs to include electrical testing. Talking weaving a tale of deceit? That's your modus operandi. And of changing the subject also! But you continue to make really stupid statements which are proof of your ignorance or stupidity. The cable is a new product made from new materials. That customer may have good ideas about what they need, but part of the R&D process is finding out about mistakes and learning from them.
Reading through the Peer review presentations there are numerous references to the interactions between the various layers of materials making up the HTS wire, e.g delamination under bending moment stresses.
One does not have to go through the process and expense of building a cable to anticipate what kind of mechanical stresses the wire will be subject to in a cable (of course they could make mistakes here too) but testing of individual wires under various stress conditions (exactly as described in the presentation where they did do pre-post electrical tests) is simpler, quicker and much less expensive, allowing them to fine tune the encapsulation until they get it right.
If it were an R&D situation and the customer didn’t know what was acceptable or not, don’t you think they would’ve shipped the wire, made the demo cable and tested it to see if it was ok or not?"
Is absolutely dumb!
At least I know my limitations, You haven't learned a thing. You are still a pompous pontificating putz whose ignorant arrogance proves you behave like your board name.
I have made a few trivial mistakes along the way, but you have claimed that I have made many more, while in fact it is you who has displayed your ignorance and tries, rather pathetically to lie your way out of it only to be trapped and then change the subject. E.G. You repeatedly made a statement that I claimed the Tapestar measured current (which it does indirectly) and continued to belittle me because of that. Then when I showed the post of yours, from very early in that subject where it was actually you who made the statement that it measured current. You went into hiding (did not reply) on that subject, just like you did when you deleted the post where you claimed that the tapestar did not measure various points across the width and I cited the statement from their website which proved that they did as well as citing from the plots the number of sensors. You also claim (without any proof) to understand the various plots on the TAPESTAR graphs and yet you have to present your explanation. I can't wait until you do, because then I will again be able to provably demonstrate your ignorance.
You closing statement about the mechanical testing once again demonstrates your ignorance of engineering and product development.
The proof about the encapsulation is in the current and previous CC discussions of this subject I think JQ know much more about it than you do. If you did, you wouldn't have made that ludicrous remark about copper encapsulation. The STI process provides for standard silver and copper (and perhaps others), but JQ specifically mentioned that the encapsulation layer that the cable demo customer wanted was not standard and that they were working with another organization that did have the capability. The discussion suggests an experimental process. (to be continued)
Thanks for posting Japan, that presentation shows that the "fool" finally got something right! The RCE-CDR process does use a "drum". But it also proved that he can't be a real mechanical engineer (which we already knew from his numerous FUBAR responses/comment about science facts.) As I indicated in my previous post, mechanical tests always require HTS wire performance measurements at least before and after the mechanical stress. I wonder what his game is?
BTW the PR is not correct. The presentation is NOT ON THE EVENTS page, it is on the "Conferences and events page!
Dear "fool" your opinions are not worth a farthing! You make ludicrous claims without offering shred of proof. I really don't give a damn if you don't agree. It is my opinion and it is clearly stated with my reasons. Anybody who reads it can agree or disagree on the face of it because the information I have given is factual...not unsupported bulldung like you litter the board with!
BTW I know I have corrected you in the past, but you have once again misused "(sic)". HTRS is an obvious typo.
In answer to your question about how fast, I recommend you actually LISTEN to the CC (don't rely on the transcript because it has many errors, but not near as many as the previous) and DO PAY ATTENTION.
Now what is really laughable is your final recommendation and the claim that follows it, especially since you claim to be a mechanical engineer! What a joke you are ... and a fraud too. I suppose it never occurred to you that since their customers are doing R&D that the customers just might not know every HTS wire specification down to the last detail after all they may not actually have a lot of experience. But that's the least of it. The testing that is giving the wire with various coatings difficulty are the mechanical tests. So while some of the mechanical tests could certainly be performed to some degree on "dummy wire" as you call it, meaningful tests will require the REAL THING. Mechanical testing will test the obvious mechanical factors, but short of a total mechanical failure, the results of these tests ARE MEANINGLESS UNLESS HTS wire electrical performance is monitored during and after the mechanical stress has been applied! After all the HTS coating will be subject to mechanical stresses at the same time that the encapsulation layers are stressed. Any smart engineer (aka not you) would absolutely monitor the effect on the electrical performance.
You are the principal fiasco around here! LOL! LOL! LOL! Go back into hiding from your FUBARs!
Actually I think they have confidence that the holders of the warrants will cash in for several Million.
I think that one of the advantages of STI process is the relatively low capital cost to replicate.
At the current time and likely for some time in the future, it will be difficult to "dial in" just the right recipe for each new customer. And there is only one part of the process in which it is apparent that the dial-in occurs...the RCE-CDR process. The IBAD might also be needed to be modified for specific applications if the MgO base needs to be thicker or thinner.
The SDP and perhaps to a lesser extent, the IBAD processes can produce huge amounts of template, much more than the current prototype and the forthcoming production equipment can process for the near future. Recall that they recently upgraded the SDP process from handling 10mm wide tape to 100mm. Assuming the same length of tape, that is a 10-fold increase. The IBAD machine is already processing 100mm wide tape. Depending on RCE-CDR process yield for a specific application, these two machines could conceiveably feed a second RCE-CDR machine with prepared template where each of the machines is producing HTS wire to different customer specifications. In fact, because some applications only require shorter lengths of wire, STI could install an RCE-CDR process machine specifically for shorter lengths. Such a machine could incorporate all the "lessons learned" design features gained from their existing prototype as well as those that they will be learning from their new production machine.