Thanks for the commentary. My estimate is in the high teens at worst for the current quarter. Remember, Debney's projection for this quarter was only 3 weeks and a couple days into it. He'd much rather low ball it just to beat the estimate than he would miss it. Analysts just don't seem to understand that.
Has anyone checked out the analyst revisions? Smith guided at .09 a share for the current quarter, but the analysts are projecting .07/sh. Can anyone remember anytime when consensus analyst estimates were below Smith's guidance much less 22% below it? .09/sh is ridiculously low and completely inconsistent with past earnings prior to Sandy Hook. The NICS are declining, but not that much...not even close. YOY NICS have been single digit drops. This estimate by Smith and the analysts is absolutely insane. CTD is out of stock on about 30% of S&W handgun listings. How do you go from .28/sh to .07/sh YOY with NICS declining at a very gentle rate? I'm calling this one...bullshlt. One could make the claim that because the backlogs were canceled and revised revenue and earnings will suffer...I'm fair with that...but telling me that earnings will suffer by 75% with NICS as high as they are. Nah no sale Charlie.
I don't reload, but strongly considered it a few years ago when the ammo was drying up. I guess I'll have to wait for a surplus before I consider it again. I'd imagine that once we see a surplus in ammo and the prices begin to fall swiftly, the reloading powder will be available once again. There is still strong demand for ammunition. This has been a major problem for firearm manufacturers. When the shelves were bare, many folks who recently purchased firearms found just enough ammunition to use in the firearms they just purchased. It was a difficult task to do, but without the ammunition, a firearm is as useful as a hammer or a rock. Most ammunition is now available, but is still a bit pricey. Smith needs to integrate further and create their own ammunition business and only sell the ammunition to those customer who have filed a warranty registration with them. This would be an excellent way to promote the products they sell. "If you want ammunition, join the team - Smith and Wesson" I'd be willing to bet reloading powder will be scarce until spring.
Quit your balling. Management has been informing the shareholders through guidance based on what they are able to predict. It's never a guarantee. They've been pretty accurate for quite a while. 9 cents is well below what I would have expected for guidance on the upcoming quarter but based on his track record Debney will beat it. It's just a shame it's as low as 9 cents. Is it possible that he is attempting to ultra low ball the guidance just to shine during earnings? YOY comparisons will stifle any attempts to shine, so what is his next move? I mean 9 cents, holy cow what a drop. It would be in Smith's greatest interest, to take serious interest in government contracts. Debney made a statement during the boom that he was not interested in the government deals, but with rising inventory and slumping sales you'd think he would change his tune. How many different sidearms and calibers would be an option for military testing? 9 mm 40 cal and 45 cal would be the primary 3 calibers IMO. How many different manufacturers do you think have the potential to make the cut? Maybe half a dozen if that. If I recall, military testing opened at the end of July. How long would you think it would take to cycle through all the rounds and complete the rest of the testing? Even if Smith doesn't get the award, I'd like to know how they compared to their peers.
Institutional positions appear to be increasing considerably. Ammo is finally coming down in price some and is actually available to buy. I think we'll see some renewed enthusiasm going into the fall as the hunting and holiday home defense themes take the stage. I'm not saying we'll be seeing bare shelves again, but any dealer overstock will likely come down to proper levels. There's been yack about discounting...I doubt we'll see any or much of it. Personally, I'm going to add the Body Guard to my collection soon now that I can get reasonably priced ammo for it.
This is because you are a paid basher. You had to change your DATBE alias as many comments made under it, made you appear quite ignorant. For example, you were under the belief that a shelf registration was an SPO. For weeks you were screaming dilution...lol. Valuation is way out of line. Maybe it's going to take a Republican take over to bring us up to a fair sector valuation or maybe Debney's going to have to play devil's advocate and make this thing look like a train wreck to pull 20 or 30 million shares off the market. Valuation and fundamentals always win.
Let's say gun demand doubled due to an event or legislation fears. Smith's revenues could double over last year and the market will not come in line with valuation. The market is incorrect. There are 20% less shares than 2 years ago. Even with lower guidance, we are well below like market value compared to the stock price during the "pre buy back/pre sandy hook" era. Are sales going to drop below pre sandy hook levels? This company is still highly profitable. If I were CEO I would lean this pig out by reducing interest payments any way I could and hoard as much cash as possible to initiate a buy back towards the end of the fiscal year (the end of getting slaughtered during earnings due to YOY comparisons). You can't have your cake and eat it too...shorts were screaming gun demand was going to die off which rewarded this stock during peak revenues with a low PE of 11 at best, so now that it is dying off, they feel it deserves a PE of 7. Is this rational to anyone? The market is wrong on this one and I hope Debney is sitting on a big pile of cash to take full advantage of this irrationality.
Just before the unfortunate Sandy Hook incident, SWHC was trading near $10.50. Since then close to 20% of outstanding shares have been removed from the market. 20% on top of $10.50 comes to $12.60. Folks, we are trading below pre-Sandy market value. That being said, Smith is gaining market share and is stuffed with cash. I doubt the stock price will be able to stay this low for much longer.
I can not argue that the .45 acp isn't the king of practical non-magnum knock down power, however, capacity is the issue with the 45. A more practical round would be the .40 sacrificing only a few rounds with about 70% more mass of a 9mm depending on round of course. The contact surface area of the .40 round is almost .05 larger than the 9mm, but is .05 smaller than the .45. Capacity is the kicker IMO. I also believe that if a particular handgun passes the military testing, the caliber choice should be given to the soldier. After all it's his/her life that sidearm is designed to protect. If a soldier is considerably more accurate with a 9mm over a 45, it might be better to equip that soldier with the 9mm. Opening the doors to other firearm manufacturers on the testing floor is a big part of finding out which handguns may be comparable or superior to Berretta. It will then come down to the question of caliber.
Agreed, but it's a pie in the sky thing right now. If we had some conclusive results from the military testing, we'd have something to discuss. All we know is the military is considering other calibers/designs at the moment. If someone wants to try to conduct the same tests in their back yard and report the results, we'd have something to talk about. That's a lot of ammo to blow through and a pile of brass to pick up.
The recent note sale at $75 million plus the $69 million reported last quarter plus what they've made between then and now. Their current cash is over $150 million. Your theory on new equipment needs has it's limits. The equipment they use does require maintenance, but does not require modernization. Barrels are made the same as they were 50 years ago along with most other gun components. Relocating is a political move and I doubt Debney would put politics ahead of his fiduciary duties.
There have been so many reasons why one would not invest in Smith, but they are petty reasons. Right now the debt/buy backs with borrowed funds and slowing demand are the hot topics. So Smith is carrying 100 million in debt...they have 150 million cash. There aren't too many small cap/mid cap companies out there holding more cash than they have debt, carrying this rock bottom PE. Before the boom started, everyone knew demand would weaken if it increased dramatically due to possible legislation. All these excuses to undervalue Smith have and will most likely always be lackluster reasoning. Did Smith get any credit from the market for the profits made from the boom? No...then it was they need to expand like Ruger did to meet demand. Ruger was way too late on the expansion measure. How many companies can sell everything on there shelves for a solid year and get no recognition from the market? If Smith won a contract that would guarantee 15% sales growth, the market will not value it fairly to it's peers within the sector. If the market will not fairly value the company, take the company away from the market with buy backs. Let the investors who see it's value now and can rationally anticipate it's value in the future own the company.
The lower the better for the long run. The military contract is an up in the air idea, however if Beretta were to lose the contract, who would get it? Maybe it's a snowballs chance in hell, but the military is reevaluating their current sidearm against other possible replacements...that's a fact. Debney always gives conservative guidance if you bothered to do your research. He gave guidance 2/3's of the way through the past quarter, so if you think he'll miss, you're the snowball right now. I'm well diversified, however Smith has been and continues to be the most irrationally undervalued stock I've been able to find anywhere on the market. I appreciate your short pumping, but I must warn you, you're setting your own trap.
Very negative speculation of growth prospects for firearms manufacturers. Key word is speculation. PE and PEG says otherwise. I trust numbers over dummies.
Single digits around $7 would be very ideal. By then Smith would have close to $200 million in cash and would have the ability to reduce the share count to about 28 million shares. All it's going to take is one major announcement like a military contract to get the idiot speculators back on board screaming buy buy buy. With 50% less shares, almost instant revenue growth, and some conservative valuation it could potentially double over this years high's. Watch the inventory closely. Nobody wins a military contract when they have no inventory running on a back log.
If Debney announces a buy back before earnings, the earnings report will be good/better than Rugers. The longer he holds out, the more people will think the earnings report will be a bust, which will steadily push the stock price lower and lower week by week. If the report really is a bust, Debney will wait until after the report to execute another buyback. This man has the ability to play the entire investment community for a pack of fools unless you really study his moves and follow up on Smith's business model and conference calls. He's the real deal when it comes to looking out for the long term stock holder. Don't expect him to stop the bleeding with a buyback announcement. The more this thing falls the better off longs will be. He'll keep stock piling the cash waiting for the right time to add serious value to those who actually own Smith (us). It may seem strange for a long term investor to hope the stock price keeps dropping, but it makes perfect sense during buy backs. Holding back any hints of good news is the obvious rule of thumb right now.
Went by my gun shop the other day. They finally have BodyGuards and Shields. The salesman also felt the need to show me a Ruger LC9. Comparing it to the BodyGuard was a night and day comparison. The BodyGuard was pretty much the same size but felt like twice the gun. I had toy guns that felt better built than the LC9. I didn't care that much for the LC9 sights and the slide doesn't stay back when the magazine is empty. The Shield was nice, but exceeded my size preference for being carried in the pocket. Smith has some darn nice products and is going to give these other firearms manufacturers a lot of tough competition. I would love to know how the M&P's stack up to the Beretta 92's in a military test.
Do you understand what EPS stands for? Earnings per share...it doesn't just make it look better...it simply is better. Everyone who owns a share gets a bigger piece of the pie. Maybe you're diabetic and still don't understand. You get more of the bacon that is on the hog. It will put more money in our pockets when we sell or when a divvy is paid. If you have $100 to pay in divvy, but you split it between 200 people, it's only .50 cents per person. If you only have to split it between 100 people everyone gets $1, which is a 100% increase in the dividend payment. The lower the stock price gets directly affects the number of shares that will come off the table with the buyback money. Did you own the stock when it was at $10? Debney announced a buyback and it quickly went to $11...boom...10% in your pocket...if you would have sold at $17 it would have been 70% in your pocket. Most importantly, you have to own/invest before you can realize these gains. We're still up almost 30% from the initial buyback. If Debney can trim another 20% of outstanding shares, you can assume a 20% increase in share price. The market is currently hunting for the floor/baseline for RGR and SWHC. We all know that sales won't be what they were during Obamageddon. What is normal now for these two companies and which is gaining or losing market share? Market share will be a big piece of the future puzzle.