Announce $100 million buyback-- sandbag with weak earnings forecast, insider selling-- Announce $15 buyback-- sandbag with insider selling--- Announce unknown buyback--- sandbag with what ever you can find....and repeat as many times as possible before earnings report. December will bring massive relief to the recent price action. Enjoy this insanely cheap buying opportunity.
Are you familiar with the term "earnings surprise"? As per your "note", earnings surprise will likely favor longs. Combining managements consistently low forecasts with the share buyback the earnings beat will be great. The buy back will have effect on future quarters. Past quarters (memories) that you are remembering are not affected by the buy back.
If you are going to buy and hold hoping for a buyout as your big pay day, I do not share your enthusiasm or thought process. Any company at anytime could be bought out. When the buyout actually happens, that's when you know a buyout is in play. I am disappointed with the BOD, however we must ask ourselves "if this stock were at $20/sh, would we be equally disappointed with the BOD as we are now?" Patience is a frustrating skill to learn, but only those who truly master it catch the trophy fish. Management's guidance is always low balled...fundamentals couldn't be better. With that said, we are in good shape. I'm off to the lake for a little night fishing.
Every time there is an announcement to buy back stock, insiders always sell. Why wouldn't they especially when they know the shorts eat it up and increase their positions and the weak handed longs exit. It strengthens the buyback's long term effect. I know earnings are a ways off, but I suspect this one will have a significant surprise factor associated with it...one we haven't seen in a long time.