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Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation Message Board

rabies_00 52 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 24, 2014 1:27 AM Member since: Mar 11, 2011
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  • Reply to

    Beheading in Oklahoma

    by gwynnbrook Sep 26, 2014 1:55 PM
    rabies_00 rabies_00 Sep 27, 2014 5:24 AM Flag

    Comparing # of deaths to the chosen tool is a fools argument. Firearms are regulated but HED's are not. Chemistry is offered at every college. Silly wabbit. There are things out there everyone has access to that make common firearms look like garden tools. You take away a killers tool, he will improvise. Human beings have been doing this since they discovered fire. Most killers are too ignorant to be as dangerous as they could be. The lousy thing about bombs are they can be detonated remotely far from the killer. With the Mexican boarder going unchecked and terrorist groups and affiliates popping up every day knives, machetes, axes, and firearms are the least of our worries. Arm yourself to protect yourself and your family from the ignorant killers and hope they don't get smarter.

  • Reply to

    Ok Why Are We Down Today On Heavy Volumn?

    by dilo133 Nov 21, 2014 12:02 PM
    rabies_00 rabies_00 Nov 21, 2014 3:03 PM Flag

    With publicly traded companies the market assigns them a valuation based on many things beyond sales. SWHC carries a valuation of a tanking company even during the Obama gun boom. It is priced at more than half of it's fair sector value. This is why doubling is highly possible once stabilization sets in. Compare SWHC to RGR and it's still 50-70% under valued. This is another reason it could run to 12, 14 or 17. Many argue that because RGR has no debt and pays a dividend it is worth so much more. The dividend currently being paid by RGR is so low it should have little effect at keeping RGR propped up. The debt carried by SWHC can be reduced by 50% right now with current cash on hand. If you throw SWHC product quality into the mix, debt and dividend are meaningless compared to RGR. Many argue that whatever the market prices a stock at is it's fair value. I highly disagree with that theory. Enron, Solyndra, Chipotle etc etc all had valuations not realistic to market pricing at one time or another. Even with negative growth, SWHC is still undervalued by a lot. Make no mistake from my words, I'm not giving SWHC a premium value. It's simply a fair value. If you've been following SWHC through out the gun boom, you know the market gives little reward to this stock even with outstanding growth. So to be fair, short term negative growth will hold little ground with a PE of 7. If I walk into my gun shop and walk up to the handgun counter they try like hell to show you every RGR in the case, but as soon as you ask to look at the M&P's the clerks face begins to show a loss of hope because he has no problem moving SWHC products, but he's overstocked on everything else despite the heavy discounts in the bargain bin.

  • Reply to

    Beheading in Oklahoma

    by gwynnbrook Sep 26, 2014 1:55 PM
    rabies_00 rabies_00 Sep 27, 2014 2:48 PM Flag

    It's not the tool that took life it's the sick sob who used it. I try to be vague to encourage people to think for themselves to promote rationality. It's all about the killers intelligence that will dictate the # of deaths.

  • Reply to

    Leaking oil

    by pooroldfred57 Sep 30, 2014 11:53 AM
    rabies_00 rabies_00 Oct 1, 2014 3:00 AM Flag

    So hypothetically, which brand of diaper would you prefer to be wearing if Smith was granted a military contract? You do know that's in play right now. I'm assuming you realize ammunition is on the shelves at retailers this year which wasn't the case last year. Who goes to the store to buy a stapler when staples are on national back order? You also realize Smith has to beat .07/sh during the next conference call. Do you really believe that there is the slightest challenge in doing that? I'm expecting some serious whip lash by or just after the next conference call. You should strongly consider an exit before the CAB and RGR conference calls. I think you'll find ammo availability is a key component to firearm sales. On another note, take a look at the NICS since inception. Gun ownership continues to sky rocket. If you're short, you are the one trying to catch a falling knife. Take the gift you've been given while you can.

  • Reply to

    hummmm.....

    by big19al66 Nov 18, 2014 9:58 AM
    rabies_00 rabies_00 Nov 18, 2014 1:28 PM Flag

    the price. we don't have the volume to assume there is a leak. odds of going up dramatically out weigh the odds of going down. Debney has already baked in all bad news. The good news is a comin.

  • rabies_00 rabies_00 Nov 26, 2014 8:18 PM Flag

    Prior to this acquisition it was thought by many that sales and earnings were declining to a dangerous level thereby putting all cash on hand in reserve mode to eliminate the current debt. Does this new acquisition portray a different picture?

  • Reply to

    DOWN .08

    by brad_pitts_betterlooking_brother Dec 15, 2014 11:27 AM
    rabies_00 rabies_00 Dec 24, 2014 1:27 AM Flag

    Since this stock is below $5, any retail investor can not short PPHM. If you can't profit from bashing it, why are you here? Why spend so much time posting? I'm sorry, but if I don't see potential for investment gains, I don't pay any attention to that investment. So what is the motive of the bashers on this message board? Even if at one point in time, you got burned on this, you still would not spend as much time bashing it as you do. The only logical reason to bash this stock would be to get paid for your posts. Which means in some way or another, you are being paid by someone who has interest in owning it in whole or in part at some point in the future. This is the only reason to bash this. Doubling MOS is huge and placebos don't do that. The more bashing from posters is a signal for strong demand by investors. If Bavi gets approved, we'll see what kind of demand there really is. I wouldn't say this is an "all in" investment, but investing 5% to 10% of your portfolio has potential to double or triple your portfolio's total value with little downside risk to the overall nest egg.

  • Reply to

    Beheading in Oklahoma

    by gwynnbrook Sep 26, 2014 1:55 PM
    rabies_00 rabies_00 Sep 28, 2014 4:50 AM Flag

    And again...you can purchase of few items from the various shopping outlets to level a 5000 sq ft home at the push of a button. If you make them think harder they will.

  • Reply to

    Coincidence in the Military

    by rabies_00 Oct 2, 2014 5:52 AM
    rabies_00 rabies_00 Oct 3, 2014 5:35 AM Flag

    They are low profit if you agree to low pricing. When the buyer really wants something from the seller, the seller always has the upper hand if he's smart enough to recognize it. I'd expect a contract to carry a discount. If Beretta can profit off the metal alloy M9, there are even more profits to be made selling the polymer frame. The advertising of the switch by news networks, word of mouth from military personnel to civilians, and foreign consumer exposure would easily make up for some margin loss...it's all free advertising. Can you imagine all the news networks advertising a branch of the military switched from a 30+ year old time tested sidearm to one of the M&P's? The shelves will be bare again in a month or less. There will also be a different tune to market recognition resulting from more attention from institutions. Valuation metrics may change drastically over night. This could bode well for Ruger's metrics as well. No more single digit PE's even in slow growth periods. The M&P (military and police) implies Smith created this line for a specific audience. Just like Beretta created the 92 for a specific audience. It wasn't by chance, it was by demand or perhaps by design. When Beretta won the contract it was announced during the month of November. If this comes to fruition, I believe Debney will use the rest of the revolver credit facility and some of the cash on hand before it happens. If the contract happens, $9/sh is as close to free as it's going to get.

  • Reply to

    Coincidence in the Military

    by rabies_00 Oct 2, 2014 5:52 AM
    rabies_00 rabies_00 Oct 3, 2014 4:27 AM Flag

    What's so secretive about military officials going to a target range? Concealing the testing wouldn't be terribly hard. A 4" barrel would be the minimum for the pick. Remember the sidearm is their back up weapon and needs to be accurate beyond 10 ft. A pro series 40 cal would be my guess. Being able to change the grips is a benefit for men and women. If there is an issue of muzzle flip for the user, there is the ported barrel/slide model. The bid is to put pressure on the vendor to get a low price. There are plenty of models available for far less than a M&P. Why wouldn't they win the bid? Because the military doesn't want them. They already know what they want and they will try to use the bidding process to get better pricing through competition when there simply is no competition. I think Debney knows this and he hinted at it with his previous statement pertaining to non government customers being their bread and butter. Smith and Wesson and many others from the competition that Berretta won widely contested the outcome of the competition. And after further review Berretta still won the contract because the military was already fixed on Berretta. The exact same thing is happening now. If history is a guide, the last model line to hit the market with the characteristics viewed as favorable by the military, is the model they have chosen as the replacement. The 9mm may continue to be the favored caliber, but I'm willing to bet something out there is outperforming the M9.

  • rabies_00 rabies_00 Oct 2, 2014 2:54 AM Flag

    Doy ya think? The stock went from $17 to $9. Of course they are dissatisfied. It doesn't matter they closed out a record sales year with great margin. The stock dropped 45% so now everyone is trying to blame someone and point out every little flaw. I believe they should terminate the options awards and replace them with cash awards based on performance with an insider purchase % of pay qualifier. In other words, if they don't use a certain percentage of their salary to purchase company stock at market value, they don't qualify for a bonus. If a stock drops 45%, the first guy anyone points the finger at is the CEO despite what was accomplished prior to the drop. I was a little disgusted that Debney received options not too long ago after incurring debt to reduce shares outstanding. That doesn't sit well with me...it just seems unethical. The company is still solid and if we didn't have options awards and debt for buy backs to complain about, we'd fine something else right?

  • Reply to

    Coincidence in the Military

    by rabies_00 Oct 2, 2014 5:52 AM
    rabies_00 rabies_00 Oct 4, 2014 4:19 AM Flag

    I'm not asking for anything. The stock price can keep dropping for all I care in the short term. Fact: The Army is replacing the M9. There's no point in fighting this. It's going to happen. Fact: The last time the military switched platforms, they chose the latest product line to hit the market. Fact: SWHC inventories are rising with full knowledge distribution channels are full. Fact: M&P was originally designed for Military and Police. I strongly believe the decision will be announced before year end. Business relationships come and go. Smith had the advantage to learn from all other polymer designs by being the last to the Tupperware Party (read an article the other day with that title...clever). It makes it easier to keep all the advantages and lose all the flaws when you get to dissect the competition.

  • Reply to

    Striker fire vs double action/single action.

    by libertee4all Oct 6, 2014 3:03 PM
    rabies_00 rabies_00 Oct 7, 2014 1:42 AM Flag

    Simple solution gentlemen. Keep it chambered. Law enforcement officials do not rack a round when they pull their firearm because it's already chambered and ready to fire. Even striker fired Glocks and M&Ps.

  • rabies_00 rabies_00 Oct 13, 2014 12:03 AM Flag

    Sure they can discount. The spread in margin from MSRP to no profit is wide and could easily sustain a discount. The fact of the matter is a large percentage of inventory is not available to distributors. Supply channels are being heavily regulated to only a certain percentage of available inventory resulting in almost no overstock and no discounting. The deck is stacked in Smith's favor with "M&P" on every card.

  • Reply to

    Okay I see one major thing wrong here

    by selloffin321 Oct 7, 2014 8:34 PM
    rabies_00 rabies_00 Oct 8, 2014 1:15 AM Flag

    It's nice to see someone else is paying close attention to inventory. Milking the books to pay more in taxes makes no sense. Why not just carry the asset as cash and not buy the unfinished goods? Management is far from incompetent. They may be selfish, but hardly incompetent unless you're referring to Golden...which might spark some argument. The inventory increase is just part of the grand scheme and it's one of the few parts of the scheme that we (joe shareholder) can see. Check out the September presentation on Smith's website. Military and law enforcement expansion is on the roster for 2015. They conveniently placed it at the very end of 2015 making it look closer to 2016. The plastics acquisition was a big tell as well. Award of a major government contract would have resulted in Tri Town bidding higher instead of lower for Smith's business. It only made sense to take control of the polymer plant there by taking control of the lower half of the M&P line. Tri Town didn't really understand what the long term value of that lower half could become. The deals done and everyone's happy. Refer to history of the 92 and compare the timing it came to market and when the military showed interest in it. Within 3 years Beretta won the bid/competition. The M&P line was the last line of polymers to hit the market and with in a short period of time, the military has decided to make a switch. It appears the exact same scenario is playing out for Smith and Wesson as it did for Beretta. The M&P line hits the market, the military expresses interest behind closed doors, Smith takes a couple years to get their ducks in a row (plastics acquisition and inventory supply), and the November acceptance announcement may or may not be looming. There are multiple phases to this type of contract, Smith will know well before it's announced because the military will likely request minor modifications to the goods and to the contract. I'd be watching for another repurchase.

  • Reply to

    Remington .243 ammo

    by bearteu01 Oct 17, 2014 9:23 PM
    rabies_00 rabies_00 Oct 19, 2014 4:54 AM Flag

    I thought you knew about guns. .243 is the same as 6mm diameter. you ever hear of a 6.5x55 Swedish mauser? 1:6 twist. If you hit a deer in the front shoulder with it, you have to throw away the entire front half of the deer. Does more damage than anything out there for civilians. When it comes to tissue damage it makes a .30-06 look like a pellet gun. Very little recoil for the death blow delivered too. It's not all about power. The 6mm has one of the best sectional densities also. The first deer I shot with my swede was destroyed. I have to hit them in the neck now...not to kill them, but to prevent destroying the majority of the deer. There's very little left of their necks too. My 22 mag has more kills than all my others put together. Another wicked killer is a hot loaded .25-06. My cousin has lost a lot of meat thanks to his .25-06. Since your worried about your shot placement a box of 00 buck works even if your half blind. Just point it at the fur lol.

  • Reply to

    Apex trigger in 9mm M&P Pro....

    by libertee4all Nov 7, 2014 6:08 PM
    rabies_00 rabies_00 Nov 8, 2014 1:46 AM Flag

    It's an exceptional short range tack driver isn't. Now get yourself a Beretta and compare the grouping. Accuracy is just one of the features of the M&P that trumps Beretta.

  • rabies_00 rabies_00 Nov 5, 2014 2:12 AM Flag

    NICS have proven yet again demand for firearms is still strong. Ruger's expansion package has proven to be one hell of a big mistake. Comparing Smith to Ruger is no longer a sound investment metric. We are very close to a record low PE. Any positive news will create considerable volatility. There is little room to bake in negative news. When the DOD contract is awarded before year end, Smith will no longer be just a firearms manufacturer. They will be a defense contractor. That's a big play for major institutions and a big opportunity to win the other branches of the military along with a pile of law enforcement divisions throughout the U.S. and abroad. You may think this to be a snow balls chance in hell, but I'm giving it about a 95% chance of coming to fruition. I'm quite confident in the timing as well. Oh I don't smoke. You should try to quit. Maybe we can buy Google next year for 50 bucks.

  • Reply to

    Why on Earth Did Debney Buy Shares????

    by equity_360 Oct 29, 2014 1:51 PM
    rabies_00 rabies_00 Oct 30, 2014 12:56 AM Flag

    It looks better to appear to be supporting a stock due to a competitors poor earnings announcement in the near future than it does to take advantage of insider contractual information. He appears more knight like as opposed to leach like. It's all part of a grand scheme of PR and possibly something else.

  • Reply to

    Debney bought 10,000 shares .... but...

    by libertee4all Oct 29, 2014 11:22 AM
    rabies_00 rabies_00 Oct 29, 2014 11:47 AM Flag

    It's the first insider open market purchase in years that actually involved an insiders hard earned cash valued at over $100k, but of course that's not good enough. It would only be substantial if it were $1 million as we all know those insiders have that kind of cash laying around all the time. You've complained about share option awards and the fact that no insider ever buys stake. Now that someone has, you feel the need to criticize it.

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