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Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation Message Board

rabies_00 14 posts  |  Last Activity: 21 hours ago Member since: Mar 11, 2011
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  • Reply to

    Seeking Alfalpha predicts a 'short massacre'

    by equity_360 Apr 10, 2014 9:24 PM
    rabies_00 rabies_00 Apr 11, 2014 4:06 AM Flag

    I didn't write it. I wouldn't have said there would be 59 m shares outstanding after this next round of buybacks. It's actually going to be 49 m. Other than that, the article was well written and the web search add in was news to me. Most everything else was common sense knowledge that anyone with a calculator and the internet could have figured out.

  • Reply to


    by dontbetheball Apr 11, 2014 2:07 PM
    rabies_00 rabies_00 Apr 12, 2014 5:27 AM Flag

    Overall market news is suggesting broad based sell of is a result of over valuation. I do not agree. Most of the over valued stocks are not tipping the scale enough to lead me to believe this. With stagnant and some what undesired news/events in the over all economy, I would be more inclined to preclude that the big boys are making sales hoping to get the retail guys to follow for a better buy in price. The VIX previously stated in another thread, shows that retailers are not falling for it or at least not as much as the big players were hoping for. If there is going to be inflation from the Fed's easy money policies, stocks will have the biggest profit potential. This is a last chance effort being taken to get in at a better price. It was done in January, but nobody knew this winter was going to be as long and nasty as it was. Financials suffered too, so why not use a weak earnings season as leverage and an excuse for a sell off. If projects were delayed because of our nasty winter, those projects still have to get done right. Business will resume, just a little late this year.

  • Reply to

    Key to SWHC future IMHO..

    by llllorac Apr 17, 2014 10:20 AM
    rabies_00 rabies_00 Apr 18, 2014 3:50 AM Flag

    The term warranty is often misinterpreted as "guarantee". A warranty ensures the buyer of a product, that the product is free of defects usually relating to workmanship and material. Worn parts are normally excluded from warranty policies with the exceptional argument of a "prematurely" worn part. You can't blame the 100k mile warranty for Chryslers problems, it was simply a composition of sub par materials and workmanship (design). Their drive trains were junk...point blank. The M&P warranty will stand as a benefit for the company and the consumer if the M&P line is of truly superior value. This gives the buyer piece of mind and allows the buyer to justify a paying a little more for a "life time warranty". There is something most manufacturers provide called a "policy adjustment". Even though they may have every right to deny warranty as per their terms, in some cases, small incentives may be policy adjusted to keep the customer happy ie a $10 firing pin or $13 guide spring. I have extensive experience with tire warranties and heavy duty equipment warranties. In most cases, the manufacturer is always on the winning end.

  • Reply to

    hillary 2016

    by rharris1975a May 5, 2014 9:02 PM
    rabies_00 rabies_00 May 5, 2014 11:23 PM Flag

    Benghazi will destroy her. Imagine a tv ad showing the 4 soldiers with their families, then shows 4 caskets , then shows Hilary saying "what difference does it make". If Republicans can find a candidate who isn't extreme right and they play hardball with the ads, Hillary won't have a snowballs chance.

  • Reply to

    Earnings Whisper site

    by libertee4all May 15, 2014 9:17 AM
    rabies_00 rabies_00 May 15, 2014 10:35 AM Flag

    I'm whispering .47/sh. I'd #$%$ myself if it's less than .44/sh

  • Reply to

    New 2nd Amendment Infringement Exposed...

    by southshoretrader May 19, 2014 2:01 PM
    rabies_00 rabies_00 May 20, 2014 3:56 AM Flag need to check your history. Republicans stood at the forefront of ending slavery and ending segregation while the major powers in the #$%$ were Democrats. Liberals don't care about anyone but themselves, but will say whatever lies they can think of to get them votes. As far as my gun shop goes, I only pay cash. It saves them a little on the merchant fees and wears out the ATM at the bank. Operation Choke Point is a joke. They say most of America's Heartland owns firearms and I say America's Heartland could shut this country down by simply refusing to grow crops. It's called the Heartland for a reason. People think those with money control this country but in reality those with useable land are in total control at all times. If you think the Government shut down was bad, just imagine all the farmers uniting in early spring refusing to grow/produce. It would result in a total economical implosion far worse than anything we've ever seen. They'd have every politician on the chopping block in less than a week if they chose to. I'd say the trucking industry could shut this country down, but there are way to many foreigners on the roads these days willing to do the job for far less. The Heartland holds the power.

  • Reply to

    SWHC acting like a king salmon....

    by libertee4all May 21, 2014 4:16 PM
    rabies_00 rabies_00 May 22, 2014 2:41 AM Flag

    Shorts believe there is no way SWHC can beat YOY quarterly growth. They may be correct on sales growth...may be, but with the buy back program's success, they will be in for a rude awakening when EPS beats by at least 10% over estimate. I believe it will beat YOY by 10%. With increased margin on the horizon future growth is all but guaranteed on the bottom line.

  • Reply to

    Earnings June 19 after close.

    by libertee4all Jun 5, 2014 5:07 PM
    rabies_00 rabies_00 Jun 12, 2014 5:17 AM Flag

    You might want to take your balls back to where ever you got them from. This quarter will be the mother of all record beats. Pay close attention to back log details during this call. The back log is the kicker the shorts can't seem to get a grasp on.

  • rabies_00 rabies_00 Jun 19, 2014 3:15 AM Flag

    Check my gun shop yesterday, M&P models only available in 45 caliber, a few revolvers, and a few 1911's. No Bodygaurds, 9mm, 40 cal, or 38's. Back log should still be very strong.

  • Reply to

    Strong projection for fy2015

    by equity_360 Jun 24, 2014 8:06 PM
    rabies_00 rabies_00 Jun 25, 2014 3:43 AM Flag

    Forecast low to slow the uptick during a buy back program. That's all this is. Smith didn't want to say buying at $18 was too salty, so they held their authorized buy back on a slightly weaker forecast (but still highly profitable). They know what they are doing as should the rest of the longs. This is a text book move. Short interest will go through the roof long enough for them to complete the buy back. If this is the last round of buy backs, expect Q1 to be exceptionally good against a low forecast. Then debt reduction, and if nobody tries to buy them out, a dividend. It's blatently systematic. Beating 2014 earnings and sales will be unlikely, but that won't change the cash going to the bottom line by much.

  • rabies_00 rabies_00 Jun 25, 2014 5:13 AM Flag

    I'm going to say this again as it appears there is a gross misinterpretation of the term "warranty". It warrants against DEFECTS in material and workmanship. Worn out firing pins, slides, barrels, mag catches will never be covered under warranty. I feel like I'm explaining what a Secondary is to datbe. Smith and Wesson does not offer a lifetime guarantee. Learn the difference.

  • rabies_00 rabies_00 Jul 1, 2014 2:44 AM Flag

    How long can management hold the stock price down to maximize buy back value? At what point, if there is a point, will management be satisfied with the number of shares outstanding? Low balling on their forecasts and selling small amounts of their option awards will only work for so long. What is the end game? There's a few more prudent questions for ya.

  • Reply to

    Gun demand has peaked!

    by buyrightone Jul 8, 2014 4:04 PM
    rabies_00 rabies_00 Jul 9, 2014 1:45 AM Flag

    very true...some bought in way before $9. The fact of the matter is PE is ridiculously low. There are tons of companies out there which can't put a penny to the bottom line carrying PE's of 17 or higher. In that respect alone, Smith's revenue stream could drop by 20% carrying a PE of 10, and it would still be extremely undervalued. The further she falls back to earth, the more valuable this stock will become with the buy back program in place. Let it fall back to $3/sh. Debney and the board will keep pulling shares off the market more aggressively the cheaper it gets. If it drops to $10, kiss another 10 million shares available good buy. It's going to be a long game to play, but there is a method to his madness.

  • Reply to

    Gun demand has peaked!

    by buyrightone Jul 8, 2014 4:04 PM
    rabies_00 rabies_00 21 hours ago Flag

    Growth is irrelevant. Smith has never received fair valuation based on past, present or future results. I'm watching inventories and they are steadily up ticking. They couldn't secure a contract with previously low inventories and demand at ultra high levels. The buy back will secure earnings as long as the market continues to give unfair valuation.

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