Only a few years after the Beretta 92 was introduced, the military took bids and held a competition between the likely candidates. In my opinion, the competition was simply a formality. I'd be willing to bet the military got there hands on a few out of the first batch and pre-tested them. Is it coincidence that approximately 3 years after the 92fs hit the market the military made a decision to elect a new side arm? I think not. You know and I know the military has already tested the M&P line along with every other line out there. Something has inspired the switch. The bid was irrelevant with Beretta. A better product hit the market, it outperformed all others, they got what they came for. Is the bid irrelevant now? There is a nice little PDF available on Beretta's website outlining the M9 history. Check it out. It's almost like the 92fs was only made/modified for the military before the competition was conducted. The military found a better product and they got what they wanted. They tested every available firearm well before the formal competition. It's a guarantee they have found something that outperforms what they have now. The bid is simply a tool to get the best price and to appear that they will consider all models for the replacement. As I said before, every model out there has been tested over and over again. Ya know that massive ammo shortage last year, maybe they had to burn through that many rounds before they could get the M&P to malfunction. Nah...that's a reach lol. But the government did buy a pile of ammo for range practice (so they claim). Range practice, range testing...meh same thing right? The choice has already been made folks. It's just a matter of contract details and announcing it to the public. All other bids are simply the appearance of equal opportunity. Something has hit the market over the past few years that the military wants. History repeats itself yet again.
Doy ya think? The stock went from $17 to $9. Of course they are dissatisfied. It doesn't matter they closed out a record sales year with great margin. The stock dropped 45% so now everyone is trying to blame someone and point out every little flaw. I believe they should terminate the options awards and replace them with cash awards based on performance with an insider purchase % of pay qualifier. In other words, if they don't use a certain percentage of their salary to purchase company stock at market value, they don't qualify for a bonus. If a stock drops 45%, the first guy anyone points the finger at is the CEO despite what was accomplished prior to the drop. I was a little disgusted that Debney received options not too long ago after incurring debt to reduce shares outstanding. That doesn't sit well with me...it just seems unethical. The company is still solid and if we didn't have options awards and debt for buy backs to complain about, we'd fine something else right?
I'm not hoping for it. After all this is a gun stock. Revenues could double over and the market will still trade it like a plague. I own this stock because it's fundamentally sound and is as close to free/cheap/undervalued as you will ever find. However, on a more comical note, watching the shorts scramble after the announcement of a contract award would make me laugh a lot more than I usually do. Who else would get the contract? This is the question you must ask yourself, then go to a range and rent some of those potential winners and make a logical comparison. On the note of accuracy and reliability, Smith won't be easy to beat. "Catching a bid" isn't necessary if the competition is poor. If the military switched to polymer framing, Glock is the only competition Smith has IMO. What products hit the market that might inspire the military to consider a switch? Glocks been around for quite a while...oh yeah...M&P. Who makes M&P again? Debney's statement about not fighting for a military contract didn't mean they wouldn't bid for it. I believe it meant "If you want M&P, it's going to cost you". Keeping margins healthy isn't something Debney is willing to throw away.
So hypothetically, which brand of diaper would you prefer to be wearing if Smith was granted a military contract? You do know that's in play right now. I'm assuming you realize ammunition is on the shelves at retailers this year which wasn't the case last year. Who goes to the store to buy a stapler when staples are on national back order? You also realize Smith has to beat .07/sh during the next conference call. Do you really believe that there is the slightest challenge in doing that? I'm expecting some serious whip lash by or just after the next conference call. You should strongly consider an exit before the CAB and RGR conference calls. I think you'll find ammo availability is a key component to firearm sales. On another note, take a look at the NICS since inception. Gun ownership continues to sky rocket. If you're short, you are the one trying to catch a falling knife. Take the gift you've been given while you can.
You got about a month to find a buy in. If RGR has decent earnings it's going to be tough to find a buy in this low. Ammo availability this year is going to have a different affect over last year when you couldn't find any ammo...gun sales have potential to increase. Nobody wants to buy a stapler if they can't get the staples for it.
And again...you can purchase of few items from the various shopping outlets to level a 5000 sq ft home at the push of a button. If you make them think harder they will.
It's not the tool that took life it's the sick sob who used it. I try to be vague to encourage people to think for themselves to promote rationality. It's all about the killers intelligence that will dictate the # of deaths.
Comparing # of deaths to the chosen tool is a fools argument. Firearms are regulated but HED's are not. Chemistry is offered at every college. Silly wabbit. There are things out there everyone has access to that make common firearms look like garden tools. You take away a killers tool, he will improvise. Human beings have been doing this since they discovered fire. Most killers are too ignorant to be as dangerous as they could be. The lousy thing about bombs are they can be detonated remotely far from the killer. With the Mexican boarder going unchecked and terrorist groups and affiliates popping up every day knives, machetes, axes, and firearms are the least of our worries. Arm yourself to protect yourself and your family from the ignorant killers and hope they don't get smarter.
Given the steep decline in small caps over the past few weeks, I must entertain the theory of asset valuation realignment. The term window dressing was used by another contributor on this board, which is common during the month of September for a few reasons. As many small caps are being sold off I have to ask why. Many small caps I've seen falling are simply not profitable in anyway and their book values are not good in relation to market value. They are the pie in the sky investments with insane over valuation. This could be a turning point for the bargain stocks with ultra low PE's. I have been trying to figure out how highly profitable companies like SWHC and RGR could ever carry a single digit PE ratio for the past few years. When compared to sector and peers, you'd swear these two companies were destined for bankruptcy. We know they aren't, but the market treats them as if they are. Major investment strategy changes are taking place right now and October will be the beginning of the purchasing side of this realignment. It seems many believe the market is over valued and it would be rational for investors to buy the bargains just to hedge the over valued market risk factor. I watched so many negative earning, over valued stocks soar while Smith was making a couple percent gain a week over the years. Is it foolish to think rationality may be returning to the market? I'm certain it's foolish to think rationality will come to SWHC, but I can dream. Earnings reports will be key over the next couple of months.
OK so if Ruger doubled there revenue and profitability this quarter and the stock dropped 20%, you would blame it on management? Fifer's reign held the biggest sales year in history. Do you really think market activity will threaten his job? Silly wabbit. If the stock traded at $1 tomorrow, he has no control over that. He has upheld his fiduciary duty to stock holders, it's just unfortunate the stock holders hold shares traded in a public market setting. The public market is about controlled by 80% emotions and 20% rationality. It's very sad to say, but it's true.
"The repeat customer is far and few between." You clearly misjudge gun owners. "Once a gun owner, always a gun buyer". It's an addiction, it's a passion, it's a hobby, it's American. I don't know a gun owner who doesn't acquire a new addition to their collection at least once every couple of years. So many calibers, so many brands, so many different features, so much fun. Gun owners rarely "replace" they just add. Form fit and function are unique features to every different model firearm. It's possible you know someone like this and they may not own a gun, but instead own a vibrator. It could be your mother, your sister, or possibly your wife or girl friend. Once they buy one, they start a collection. New additions are rarely replacements. That's a basic analogy that holds a tremendous amount of truth pertaining to consumer purchasing habits.
I believe the earnings report will dramatically change the course of this slide. It doesn't matter what the final 52 week low is for the next year. Based on what I have read (which are opinion related articles) Smith is THE heavy weight contender for the military switch. Primarily I see Ruger and Smith pop up in these articles (probably due to the fact that they are publicly traded), but Smith gets a lot more attention and praise. The process of switching from the M9 by accepting new bids from other manufacturers is already under way. Even if the military contract doesn't come to fruition, the high inventory/channel replenishment issue is mostly isolated to this current quarter according to Debney. There is potential for a very strong earnings beat this quarter especially with September and October starting off the hunting season. Customer's are going to walk into Cabelas, Bass Pro and their local gun dealers and actually see firearms to buy....they will see ammo too. There's a lot more potential during this quarter than there was last quarter yoy for the consumer. It could prove to be a very serious kick to the jewels of any current or would be short.
Your basing your multiplier on a forecast. The forecast is the flaw in your theory.
The cash preservation mode you speak of applies to cap ex. It was clearly stated by Debney that they would buy back shares, then pay down debt, then pay dividends. The market continues to give Smith away and I'd bet ya Smith will gladly take it back at a 50-75% discount. When payments commence on the debt, the buy backs will be over. Wiping the back log slate clean has put the blinders on Debney. This is the biggest contributor to the ultra low forecast he provided during the last conference call. He knew when he recommended to dealers to reset based on lower demand, and he knew he would be blind for a short period of time. Nice excuse don't you think...nice excuse to give ultra low guidance to bring the stock price down to steal the shares from the market. I do not support the options granted to upper level management, however I'm not going to dwell on it as the companies few negatives.
Much like the shorts 2 year losing streak, but they continued to short. It's there time now, but longs have good use for them. The deeper we dive the harder the hammer will fall. The buy backs will commence once again. Hopefully, this time will be more so with cash on hand as opposed to debt. Hopefully, Ruger's earnings release will be negative. If this happens, Smith could drop up to 20% off it's share price and I'd expect Debney to make his move and I wouldn't be surprised if it involved the use of the other 75 million in reserved credit. We aren't far from a record low PE. Small caps are getting hammered and the tide will turn again soon. The bargain hunters are standing by to make a killing on them. There's plenty more fun to be had.
Thanks for the commentary. My estimate is in the high teens at worst for the current quarter. Remember, Debney's projection for this quarter was only 3 weeks and a couple days into it. He'd much rather low ball it just to beat the estimate than he would miss it. Analysts just don't seem to understand that.
Has anyone checked out the analyst revisions? Smith guided at .09 a share for the current quarter, but the analysts are projecting .07/sh. Can anyone remember anytime when consensus analyst estimates were below Smith's guidance much less 22% below it? .09/sh is ridiculously low and completely inconsistent with past earnings prior to Sandy Hook. The NICS are declining, but not that much...not even close. YOY NICS have been single digit drops. This estimate by Smith and the analysts is absolutely insane. CTD is out of stock on about 30% of S&W handgun listings. How do you go from .28/sh to .07/sh YOY with NICS declining at a very gentle rate? I'm calling this one...bullshlt. One could make the claim that because the backlogs were canceled and revised revenue and earnings will suffer...I'm fair with that...but telling me that earnings will suffer by 75% with NICS as high as they are. Nah no sale Charlie.
I don't reload, but strongly considered it a few years ago when the ammo was drying up. I guess I'll have to wait for a surplus before I consider it again. I'd imagine that once we see a surplus in ammo and the prices begin to fall swiftly, the reloading powder will be available once again. There is still strong demand for ammunition. This has been a major problem for firearm manufacturers. When the shelves were bare, many folks who recently purchased firearms found just enough ammunition to use in the firearms they just purchased. It was a difficult task to do, but without the ammunition, a firearm is as useful as a hammer or a rock. Most ammunition is now available, but is still a bit pricey. Smith needs to integrate further and create their own ammunition business and only sell the ammunition to those customer who have filed a warranty registration with them. This would be an excellent way to promote the products they sell. "If you want ammunition, join the team - Smith and Wesson" I'd be willing to bet reloading powder will be scarce until spring.
Quit your balling. Management has been informing the shareholders through guidance based on what they are able to predict. It's never a guarantee. They've been pretty accurate for quite a while. 9 cents is well below what I would have expected for guidance on the upcoming quarter but based on his track record Debney will beat it. It's just a shame it's as low as 9 cents. Is it possible that he is attempting to ultra low ball the guidance just to shine during earnings? YOY comparisons will stifle any attempts to shine, so what is his next move? I mean 9 cents, holy cow what a drop. It would be in Smith's greatest interest, to take serious interest in government contracts. Debney made a statement during the boom that he was not interested in the government deals, but with rising inventory and slumping sales you'd think he would change his tune. How many different sidearms and calibers would be an option for military testing? 9 mm 40 cal and 45 cal would be the primary 3 calibers IMO. How many different manufacturers do you think have the potential to make the cut? Maybe half a dozen if that. If I recall, military testing opened at the end of July. How long would you think it would take to cycle through all the rounds and complete the rest of the testing? Even if Smith doesn't get the award, I'd like to know how they compared to their peers.