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Ampio Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

racavalli 175 posts  |  Last Activity: 8 hours ago Member since: Jul 31, 2012
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  • The annual shareholders meeting presented spectacular content but failed to generate the kind of buying that would be expected following.

    The smart institutions that listened to the meeting know that this company is on the verge of delivering multiple rounds of heavy firepower news releases dealing with things like, unprecedented data demonstrating cartilage regeneration, unprecedented data showing safety and efficacy for OAK, unprecedented data for reducing the leakage of fluids in eyes and kidneys that lead to blindness and kidney failure, and much more.

    The smart institutional buyers will realize that the current market cap of $180 million is an opportunity that doesn't come around often with a risk t reward ratio that heavily favors the investor.

    The public does not understand it but some of the smarter institutions that do their homework will figure it out and jump in before the big news starts flying.

    The only negative about Saturday's meeting is the sound quality that made it difficult to understand the speakers . . . otherwise, Ampio slammed one out of the park and eventually investors will figure it out.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    For what it's worth - part 1

    by buddabear83 Sep 21, 2014 12:28 AM
    racavalli racavalli Sep 21, 2014 11:47 AM Flag

    Great post buddabear83!

    I hope Mike's words . . . " I don't care about the price" were unintended.

    No CEO of any publicly traded company can turn his back to investors who have put up hard earned risk capital. This company would not be able to exist if it weren't for the shareholders that bought into finance rounds and most importantly shareholders who buy in the open market that makes it possible for finance rounds to happen. One should NEVER bite the hand that feeds them.

    I am hopeful Macaluso made a slip and didn't mean it because he would not like the consequences if shareholders turned their back to him.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Afterthoughts

    by buddabear83 Sep 21, 2014 5:21 AM
    racavalli racavalli Sep 21, 2014 11:36 AM Flag

    It's great to hear somebody else understand the true potential of Ampio.

    It's been a very rough start, but the future is without a doubt, one of the finest I have witnessed in over 45 years.

    The nature of many investors is to want instant results and that is just never going to happen. I'll never forget the perplexed feeling I had when in 1969 Charlie Munger asked me, "Do you want profits . . . OR . . . do you want action". It takes years of making and losing fortunes to learn that the long-term holders are the ones that make all the big money. Like Warren Buffet says, find a company that you KNOW HAS THE GOODS FOR LONG-TERM SUCCESS and buy and buy and buy and buy and just sit back and let the compounding from time make you wealthier than you could ever imagine. Ampio is clearly that vehicle.

  • Reply to

    Why Today Is The Time To Buy Aggressively

    by racavalli Sep 19, 2014 9:59 AM
    racavalli racavalli Sep 19, 2014 1:16 PM Flag

    racavalli @ yahoo

  • The street's perception of AMPE is very negative.

    The short interest is close to 10 million.

    It's likely that tomorrow's shareholder meeting will clear up any uncertainties that have been plaguing Ampio shares. Why else would Ampio have it webcast at noon EDT.

    It is likely that the smart shorts will cover today so they won't be exposed to good news this weekend.

    It's also very likely that positive news may come from tomorrow's meeting. Perhaps there might even be FDA guidance for the BLA filing announced.

    Then there is a long string of events that I personally believe will be very explosive for shares.

    At their low for the year, shares are expecting the worst and I do not believe that is the case so I would be a very strong buyer here and hold for the long term.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • racavalli racavalli Sep 18, 2014 12:38 PM Flag

    still waiting for you to post threats from AF

  • racavalli racavalli Sep 17, 2014 11:33 PM Flag

    Macaluso is tired of being beaten up like a pinata and I'm certain he will use the shareholders meeting to clarify the overdone hysteria and uncertainty.

    I think you are correct that he will likely address the path t the BLA filing and hopefully supported by some conversations with the FDA.

    Be prepared for him to set the street straight and get investor confidence back.

    I think he is even stronger than before because he now knows to be extra careful with even the simplest and seemingly most innocent looking tasks.

    TRUST BUT VERIFY VERIFY VERIFY

    My guess is short covering starting tomorrow and continuing strongly on Friday with a big Monday ad followthrough.

    Anything can happen, but that's my guess.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • racavalli racavalli Sep 17, 2014 9:27 PM Flag

    can you please copy and paste the threats from AF to you so we can all see them?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Just reading the most recent press releases tells us that we are about to see shares jump on earnings because the current quarter is completed in two weeks and will be reported shortly after.

    We know from the company's model that revenues are about to take off and we also heard that they have been rolling out their DX earlier that will soon show up in earnings reports.

    Shares are very undervalued and are an excellent buying opportunity for investors who have done their homework.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • racavalli racavalli Sep 14, 2014 9:56 PM Flag

    The Step Study results are not valid and must be avoided to reduce confusion that is already rampant.

    It's important to note that I believe the company has known that the Multiple Injections were the blowout treatment but the FDA wanted the single injection Step Study done first.

    The results from the MI study are so overwhelming that there is no question in my mind that the FDA is going to allow that data from the current study underway for the BLA filing.

    Even though the initial data was for a small number of 7 patients, the data was so extreme that I am confident it will repeat with larger patient numbers.

    Coupled with the fact that the company experienced very serious consequences from the most minor and unexpected procedures, I believe the company is much stronger today to never repeat those kind of mistakes.

    Again . . . I am highly confident Ampion will amaze and become a very successful drug.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • More important than my differences with Ampio management are my perceptions of the company and my own personal strong buy recommendation.

    In spite of our numerous differences, I continue to believe even stronger than before that Ampion will become a huge commercial success and Optina will likely follow.

    I believe the current collapse of shares represents a unique buying opportunity that will reward long term investors who buy and hold . . . with unusually large returns.

    I also believe there will be numerous positive surprises beginning this month and beyond.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • racavalli racavalli Sep 14, 2014 10:16 AM Flag

    My opinion is 180 degrees apart from management's.

    I have been in the markets since the mid 1960's and I have observed that all of the big winners had one thing in common . . . they all had the biggest and the most aggressive investment bankers AND they all had EXTREMELY ACTIVE AND VERY STRONG AND FREQUENT PR.

    They did not run from making making forward looking statements. Their lawyers did not put a muzzle on them.

    I have run several comps in the market against AMPE and have repeatedly found that Ampio has always been extraordinarily undervalued for three reasons:

    1. AMPE entered the market through buying a shelf company instead of doing a traditional IPO. The disadvantages of a shelf company are huge. They do not bring in any money, there are no well-known investment bankers covering the stock and vetting the company that investors require before they will risk capital.

    2. Ampio waited far too long to bring in a major banker and when they did, the company failed to require the bankers to work hard to promote their shares. Citicorp does not have any retail presence and Jefferies took their fees and ran. They should have given GS a big chunk of the company for FREE and done a huge underwriting with them.

    3. Ampio has failed to execute an effective PR program to get their incredible story out to the investment community. The company is afraid of lawsuits, but by diminishing PR and allowing their share price to drop so precipitously in recent months, the company is now open to a big round of well-known law firms that file large class action lawsuits on behalf of shareholders that lost a lot of money. Whether they sold their shares and realized a loss or not . . . Ampio shareholders have lost $300 million in market cap recently and are certainly a target for these law firms.

    The incredibly low market cap also invites hostile takeover attempts that have not yet surfaced but may so long as the cap is so low.

    It's always easy to be a Monday morning quarterback

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    How Much Money Have Investors Lost In AMPE Shares?

    by racavalli Sep 12, 2014 12:12 PM
    racavalli racavalli Sep 12, 2014 4:41 PM Flag

    Surely you realize that you don't have to sell to be losing money.

    You will end up making money when you sell much later at higher prices but right now you shares are worth less than you paid for them so you are losing money.

    The question is . . . how much are you losing now? With shares approaching their all time lows, almost everybody is losing a lot of money on Ampio.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    How Much Money Have Investors Lost In AMPE Shares?

    by racavalli Sep 12, 2014 12:12 PM
    racavalli racavalli Sep 12, 2014 1:38 PM Flag

    I understand your approach and agree strongly that it is the best way to make the big money repeatedly, unfortunately, most investors are impatient and many have already sold and lost a lot of money. And realized losses or not, paper losses are still very real because today's price is really all that shares are worth and the simple truth is that they are at their lows for the year and almost at their all time low with less than $4 to go before they are worthless.

    So the question remains . . . how much money . . . realized or not . . . has everyone lost?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I'm guessing close to $200 million.

    Any other estimates?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Ampio through Luoxis presented at Aegis today in Las Vegas and had an opportunity ti address a public forum to clarify the many misperceptions about Ampio that has been cratering share prices lately.

    The company has made a MAJOR MISTAKE BY IGNORING AND AVOIDING PR.

    By following the bad advice of their legal counsel to avoid PR and forward looking PR, the company is now open to major class action shareholder lawsuits stemming from recent large losses experienced by shareholders that are very likely due to the company's avoidance to confront all of the negative press and discrediting statements.

    The low price also exposes the company as a takeover target because valuations have collapsed dramatically and are likely attractive to larger companies with plenty of cash looking to buy discounted pipelines.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Gobel says AMPE is EXTREMELY . . . OR EXTRAORDINARILY OVERSOLD!

    CitiCorp called AMPE very undervalued when shares were trading at $7.00

    Market comps are unbelievably higher.

    Expect major reversal soon.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Blog from The Street says AMPE is "EXTRAORDINARILY OVERSOLD" and is a BUY.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • racavalli racavalli Sep 10, 2014 12:09 PM Flag

    I am confident that AMPIO WORKS VERY WELL but I am also confident that the biggest problem is . . . this low price creates a much higher probability of a large company making a bid for the whole company at a time when shareholders are frightened, discouraged and frustrated. Shareholders are now much more likely to accept a very low bid for the whole company. At the current price Ampio is EXTREMELY VULNERABLE TO A HOSTILE TAKEOVER.

    Ampio has admittedly been in detailed discussions with several potential big pharma partners so it is quite clear that they know all they need to know about just how solid these drugs are and now they are just weighing the difference between striking up a lucrative partnership agreement by year end . . . OR BUYING THE ENTIRE COMPANY FOR AN UNUSUALLY LOW PRICE.

    My guess, is that shareholders would now happily sell all their shares for $12 to $15 . . . that with only 52 million shares outstanding would translate to a ridiculously low price of between $500 and $800 million. By any standards, that would be a steal in the pharma industry to own 100% of Ampion for ALL INDICATIONS AND OPTINA AND EVERYTHING ELSE IN THEIR PIPELINE!

    Consider that management does not have anywhere near the shares it takes to control the company. They may have a staggered board but that does nothing to prevent a hostile takeover.

    I believe that management's short-sightedness about strong PR and market valuations is their Achilles heal and that it won' be long before they are swallowed up and disassembled for their parts.

    In my opinion, the die is cast and it is too late for management to wake up and respond now. Today's market cap is an astonishing $180 million and the price is very close to its ALL TIME LOW of $2.54

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Where's Rich?

    by ampiooooooh Sep 9, 2014 12:24 PM
    racavalli racavalli Sep 9, 2014 1:15 PM Flag

    You are correct!

    This will turn out to be the best buying opportunity of all.

    The short players are doing well recently but now is not the time to get overconfident because the pendulum is about to swing the other way when least expected.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

AMPE
3.33-0.15(-4.31%)Sep 22 4:01 PMEDT

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