Volume picking up - and yes large volume drops price .06-.10 temporarily but difference now (versus a few days ago) is that volume is being absorbed and price is holding - still a lot of ground to make up from a week ago but these minor technicals are bullish for the time being. Hard to imagine why anyone holding volume (institution) would be selling now when the very real likelihood of a nice gain is not that far away - you would think those funds have weaker positions - no shot at all of getting you 50% in next 8 weeks - because they will probably be kicking themselves a few months from now.
I think the short interest is retail so that will help push it up at some point (even today perhaps) but until large institutions are completely out - the stock will trade around - when the larger (any of the top 15) are done selling - and it is only a few then this thing will get back to the $9-10 range rather quickly and that the battleground until some type of announcement is made - at some point, worst case would be next quarterly conference call, they will be asked about the strategic initiatives which included a sale of the company and at that point we will know if management is digging in heels (they don't want to sell) unless truly no one wants to buy MX (hard to believe since the PP&E and IP are worth at least $15 likely north of that. They aren't selling from a position of strength - otherwise they could probably fetch $20+ but I think most holders would be happy with $13+ rather than risk a long operational turn around with an unproven management team.
Well those may end up expiring worthless - not sure anything happens in next 30 days because of market turmoil. Still, plant value here suggests MX at LEAST a double from these prices - so it is great that some institution small cap managers have to sell MX due to redemptions - allows this price to hang around here - the big players have their positions - maybe a few could add 1% or so but the battleground has been set. If management doesn't successfully execute on a transaction, expect a good slug of the board to be replaced - recall that board eliminated staggered board so all board members must be nominated annually. Slam dunk for any activist to get majority of board next go around and run the sales process successfully if current regime fails to do so. No reason to bite on any alternative about going alone and "improving" when the market for analog fab capacity is tight enough to extract $15-20/share after paydown of debt and pension.
My guess is company's investment banks have delivered pitch books - think this is a goner - look at shareholder base - you have concentrated holdings 50% in a handful of funds - this management team doesn't want to take execution risk - since foundry value does not increase if they improve operational performance. PERFECT operational execution "could" support a low 20s price - so what is that - 8 "great" quarters in a row? Or sell at current foundry valuations for the same price - board is chockful of portfolio managers - who wants a headache of proxy battle next year - they "barely" received more than 50% of vote and they were running unopposed. If I'm on board I sign memo yesterday selling to highest bidder. Think a deal closes between $15-20 before year-end.