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DineEquity, Inc. Message Board

radar_the_kat 6 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 10, 2014 12:14 PM Member since: Aug 10, 2005
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  • Reply to

    Discussion example

    by radar_the_kat Jul 9, 2014 11:24 PM
    radar_the_kat radar_the_kat Jul 10, 2014 12:14 PM Flag

    This type of discussion is common on Gathrz, plus a lot of daily watching of the market, the VIX, and several stocks other than Apple. And none of the vitriol found here. A great group of like-minded and respectful individuals. Hopefully you'll make the jump.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Discussion example

    by radar_the_kat Jul 9, 2014 11:24 PM
    radar_the_kat radar_the_kat Jul 10, 2014 10:52 AM Flag

    We'd really like to have you join us. You would add to the knowledge and discussions and you may also find some valuable insights and strategies from the Gathrz members. Hope to see you make the jump.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Discussion example

    by radar_the_kat Jul 9, 2014 11:24 PM
    radar_the_kat radar_the_kat Jul 10, 2014 8:45 AM Flag

    Here's a typical exchange over on Gathrz. This from yesterday, discussing where the stock price might go in the short term. Pretty accurate:

    duncvc • July 9th 2014 02:13:32 PM Reply 0
    FWIW Seymour, AEA shouting buy all you can at 95.
    seymour_greenz • July 9th 2014 02:14:52 PM Reply 0
    Thanks. Think it's a trap?
    duncvc • July 9th 2014 03:58:16 PM Reply 0
    As requested, I report AEA's breathless announcement of this week's OPEX as 98. I suspect I could see the same OPEX visions they do if I'd drink cheap tequila and lighter fluid. Gathrz Max Profit is in the 94 region still?
    seymour_greenz • July 9th 2014 04:28:03 PM Reply 0
    Looks like 94.3 now, thanks for your updates. This is a very tricky scenario, I'm puzzled as to what could happen between now and end of next week to fulfill prophecy.
    duncvc • July 9th 2014 02:16:42 PM Reply 0
    It always feels like a trap to me. Anyone else have an opinion on AAPL right here right now?
    stanky • July 9th 2014 02:18:15 PM Reply 0
    yes, it will close at 94.10 . thanks
    stanky • July 10th 2014 07:59:05 AM Reply 0
    wow look how close that is .except it got there in PM

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Discussion example

    by radar_the_kat Jul 9, 2014 11:24 PM
    radar_the_kat radar_the_kat Jul 10, 2014 8:40 AM Flag

    Seymour,

    I think biglefthook_00 is exactly the type of trader we would love to have join us. He's considerate in his posts, deals with factual information and would contribute greatly to our discussions. It does seem like its a struggle to get people to make the leap, but none who have come over have subsequently come back here in any meaningful way. Mostly just to check in and see if there are any candidates for our community, like we're doing here with this thread.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Discussion example

    by radar_the_kat Jul 9, 2014 11:24 PM
    radar_the_kat radar_the_kat Jul 10, 2014 8:36 AM Flag

    Oops, sorry. Forgot to select my radar_the_kat moniker on those following posts. Lipstick_the_pig is one of several amusing #$%$ I use. Same poster, though.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • radar_the_kat by radar_the_kat Jul 9, 2014 11:24 PM Flag

    Over on Gathrz I was discussing debit call spreads versus DITM calls used as a stock replacement strategy. Asked my views, here is what I wrote (see below). If these are the types of discussions you're interested in versus the mudslinging non-information posts that are typical here, you really should consider joining us and leaving all this behind. You'll be glad you did. Btw, its free, with no advertising or come-ons, no premium service to upgrade to, just a group of folks that got tired of this board and created a community of traders that help each other learn and trade more effectively. And here's my post in answer to another poster's query, typical of the conversations we have:

    My strategy with Apple going into a large number of debit call spreads is based on my very high confidence that the share price will rise strongly over the next several months. Even so, I'm putting on spreads with a long side ITM against a short side slightly in the money (as I did two days ago with the Sept $85/92.50 spreads I added) or slightly OTM (as I did with the Jan 2015 $85/95 spreads I've had on for a few week now). We've talked before about how this gives you the advantage of a break-even below the current share price, a max value near or below the current share price, and the ability to achieve most of the max value in a short period relative to the distant expiration date. In the last couple months I've been getting 2/3rds of the total ROIC potential within a few weeks as the stock price rose and the long-side versus short side premiums converged (sort of a quantum entanglement effect between the sides of the spread- Seymour, you reading this? lol!). And so if you feel for PCLN, or any other stock, that there is coming a period of higher prices, this is the strategy to play and the goals to attempt to achieve in playing it; 

    1. break-even below the current share price, 
    2. a max value near or even below the current share price,
    3. and the potential to achieve most of the max value in a short period so that you can cash in then repeat at higher strikes (the amount you move up the strikes is equivalent, or near equivalent to the move in the share price since you put on the spread you are cashing out).

    This is not a strategy I'd use to try to milk a stock that is volatile but for which you don't have a high degree of confidence that the price will move higher over a mid-term period. You could use it, but you may have to wait all the way to expiration to achieve most or all of max value. That's no fun. So you'll have to determine whether PCLN meets the standard for this type of trade.

    As for a stock replacement strategy, just going long a DITM call, this again is only appropriate if you have high confidence that the share price is gong to move higher. The difference here being that, by putting on a one-sided bullish trade, you don't get the benefit of a lower break-even. You're getting the benefit of leverage and unrestricted upside at the expense of giving up the hedge you get from the short side of a spread. So this type of trade I'd want to use if I felt there were some near-tern positive catalyst that will drive the share price higher in the short-term. And only if the catalyst were sufficiently strong and the move in the share price had not yet been partly made. So if we get a drop in August in AAPL, for example, and you felt very strongly that AAPL would pop strongly in mid-sept with the iPhone intro, then this would be a great time to gain the leverage that a DITM call gives you as a stock replacement strategy. But if the stock climbs all summer, then I'd rather be using spreads to repeatedly grab 50% - 75% gains on my invested capital along the way while enjoying the downside protection of the spreads.

    Sentiment: Buy

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76.75+0.520(+0.68%)9:38 AMEDT

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