could u be wrong ? u are forgetting the only commodity that has a direct
impact on inflation and hence price of gold... it is called OIL.... oil is DOWN
75%... look for gold to begin its downward journey to 275 soon,,, u are not
going to believe how fast gold will sell off .... if oil is any guide take a look
at oil price and DWTI...
Gold and NUGT will detach if gold moves higher.. current
NUGT price has almost 2,000 gold built into the miners.. look
for NUGT and gold to detach with money coming out of NUGT
into GLD or OUNZ... the commodity gold ... NOT the gold miners.
(a) DUST went from a low of 11.58 in Sept 2012 to a high of 83.25 in June 13
(in about 9 months)
(b) DUST was FORWARD split 2 for 1 in August 2013.
(c) DUST has gone from a low of 11.25 to a high of 23.75 within 3 weeks
done more or less this "route" several times in the past 2 years.
(d) Convergence of 50-100-200 dma on a 10 year chart is around 21.50
Look for a March 31 2016 closing price of $ 18.xx look for it to close out 2016
at around $ 80.xx they typically sell off stocks / etfs to shake out longs, then the
rally begins. GOLD has no where to go but under 600. Stay long stay strong.
gold prices does not translate into miners prices.... there is fundamentally
NO correlation between the two. If u want to play the gold move... BUY OUNZ or
GLD more or less pure gold play.
Plain and simple basic economics:
(a) Negative interest rates reflect DEFLATION. When people want to
hold on to currency ($) despite having to pay to hold it. means FALLING
prices ahead. eg if an property is costing 100,000 today but is forecasted
to be available for just 50,000 2 years from now, then people will NOT buy
the property but hold to cash instead. Ditto reverse for INFLATIONARY
environment where people SPEND today assuming prices will be higher
in the future.
(b) Gold is a protection against INFLATION... NOT DEFLATION.
(c) It COSTS to acquire and hold gold.
(d) Higher prices of gold doesn't correlate one to one with miners stock prices.
There is massive deflationary force in the making due to OIL price collapse which has
YET to manifest itself in the economy.
Ride the short squeeze technical train... but fundamentally miners are headed to where
the oil / gas companies are... sp the leveraged ones.. BUY DUST and watch it go to
will not be sacrificed for GDX et al... no matter what Yellen says / does.. money
will flow out of gold and GDX, into biotechs et al... look out for airlines stocks
to take over the leadership.... how does a 100++ AMR look ? and a $ 1.50 NUGT?
Guys... effects of oil price drop has not been factored in yet by the street... obvious
beneficiaries are transports / hotels / restaurants / travel agencies.... gold goes under
800 in 2016 no matter what...
DWTI is a commodity (oil) based etf, it went to 500 because Oil declined 80%
from 120+... direct correlation. NUGT is an EQUITY based etf dependent on
price of gold to some extent, (remember... a miner's STOCK does NOT necessarily
have to go up with rising gold price).... BUT now coming back to gold / oil, gold is in
a SOLID downtrend and will eventually sell off 70 -80% a la oil... so DUST will be
the one to go UP.. not NUGT... get it ?
brainwashed ? there is NO hole to dig out of ... they are just brainwashing people
and unloading this #$%$... there is deeeflation going on.... oil at 28, is the main
"gold has only been cut by 40%".... and therein my friend lies the rubbb...
with oil at 30ish.. fmv of gold is 280 - 320. not a penny more.. so we have
some 75% decline in gold coming.. and come it WILL... now with 40%
decline in gold NUGT was down to pennies... imagine where it will be with
gold at 295...
fly in the ointment... Unfortunately NUGT is an equity (stock) based
derivative albeit sensitive to the price of gold, on the other hand the argument
could very well be
" for the past 3 years price of oil had been on a tear since 2010, price of gold is directly related to price of oil since oil is a huge contribtor to inflation, hence
it supported the price of gold around 1200...." now that oil is 30ish... we go back
to the charts and see that last time oil was around 30 (in 2003) gold was at
275+/-... add to that that most governments and consumers are facing
deficits and or outright bankruptcy, the moment has come to relaise that
printing more money is futile hence "Defaults" will be concluded as the
correct answer to solve the set of problems facing the world... look for
defaults to commence with Venezuela then spreading to Europe and
Asia... RESET buttons being pressed all over the world, US Dollar will
reign supreme, gold under 300, oil under 20, and NUGT just about
25 cents... DUST around $ 485
imo Under NO CIRCUMSTANCE i repeat NO CIRCUMSTANCE can NUGT break
$ 52.50 ( 200 dma)... at best it will try to reach there but only to be followed by a 50%
down day to $ 25.75 its 50 dma... we see NUGT testing 12.50 next month...
GOLD price are oil dependent not the other way around..
so "oil did not rise with gold" .... "gold went up because of oil"
so... next question.... was IRAN oil in the market between the
time frame in question..??
Applying ECO 101 i come up with the following :
(1) NUGT is an equity based ETF (gold miners) and these miners are terminally ill
most facing BK any time.
(2) Gold is a commodity indirectly contributing to the miners and hence NUGT, however
the correlation is NOT LINEAR, nor is instantaneous.
(3) Price of Gold is directly related to INFLATION (purchasing power loss of currency),
alternate investments (such as interest rate sensitive instruments), geo-political events,
and above all LIQUIDITY (amount of currency lying around to be invested).
(4) Inflation on the other hand is correlated to price of commodities mainly OIL, surplus
currency lying around, labor and wages.
Streets obsession with FEDs rates (up or down) is exagerated, rates will NOT go up IFF
inflation is low or negative (deflation) hence is a NEGATIVE contributor to price of gold. on the
other hand rising interest rates would kick alternate investments into play .. hence NEGATIVE
for price of gold
Gold in 2003 was around $ 275. Oil at that time was $ 30.xx . USD was 1.50 to the GBP,
and 1.30 to the euro. So today it is a stronger currency. Given these price of gold should be
in the 180 - 250 range... a handsome $ 1,000 premium.
The US Feds will NEVER let the USD become the "German Mark" or the "Zimbabwe Dollar"
EVER ... U S $ reigns supreme as reserve currency and always will in the foreseeable future.
GIVEN all these.... GOLD is headed to 300 and miners are headed to their coffins. AND yes
they always bounce the hardest just before DYING.. true of all beings living or otherwise
DUST. trading range bound 7 - 11 for the next 5 months... then
once second quarter miners earnings are out (dismal at best some declaring
BK) see NUGT plunge to under 8 and DUST shoot into triple digits...
she still needs to make a double top around $ 140 one more time... BUY without
fear $ 7.xx looks life a very very very very safe bet if holding for 6 months or more...
Blow off top in NUGT yesterday.... no fundamentals there... DUST, DZZ and NRX remain
our TOP picks for 2016 targeted for more than 100% ror in 2016
LOOKS to me like someone is not doing DD... DUST did NOT REVERSE split
it actually paid a 98c DIVIDEND in 2012 and split 2 for 1 in 2013... DUST is
shaking out all longs and instilling fear in prospective buyers... so the BIG BOYS
can get in LOW... next year DUST will be in TRIPLE DIGITS a handsome 1000%++
gain.... LOAD UP THE TRUCK as she moves lower..