they will raise money thru secondary... YES... BUT at $ 7.00 ++ not
here at 2 and change... raising $100 mm at $ 7.50 means less than
15 million shares secondary... here at 2.50 means 40 million shares..
no one is stupid to do a 40 million shares secondary... COVER if u are short
this stock has a habit to rocket up ...
make that "was the boss of the business"... u now have EXPD, AMZN, GOOG, TRIP
all solid competitors and none offering the auction "name your own price" model..
then again, add the fact that hotels are encouraging people to book rooms using POINTS
(I just booked on Marriott using points came out to a 30% discount from the published
$$ rate)... PCLN is now H I S T O R Y.... look for falling growth rates and squeezed margins
a deadly combo for a stock trading at 10 times book...
got u worried ?? she is only $ 13 away from $ 145... and $25 from $ 133..
which we see in the next 10 trading days.... then $109 by Oct report and
$ 85 by year end.... get BUY orders ready at $ 85- 89 range
Fundamentals are changing fast. Pricelines' auction model is getting
obsolete as competitors offer different "reward" schemes, Expedia,
Amazon Google and Trip.. solid competition heating up... My own
travel / hotel / car / Flts purchases for the past 6 months have been
on sites OTHER THAN PCLN.... at 10+ times BOOK, it is a very
expensive stock... then we have "sell in May and go away" syndrome
evident in most stocks reporting this week... YELP BWLD UTHR.. etc
and then again... the stock was at 1130 just 2 months ago...
oh well they cant even afford lamb meat and pita so they are
now thinking of oink oink ("Pork that is") ... in any event wings
are dying.. pork or lamb...
between NOW and next earnings report look for BWLD to
close the gap at 133 set a few months ago... she settles
around 145 by July 3 rd week... then comes another confirmation
that the growth story is peaked and we see BWLD at 109..
Take the 160+ Mr market is giving and look for greener pastures...
and then there was
(1) high chicken price (2) high labor cost
and these are not going away any time soon... may be NEVER... so it is
time to 're-evaluate" BWLD in light of these factors ?? smart money would..
My model gives me a FMV of $ 87.50 .... almost 50% discount from here...