One huge factor is that we get a 5% royalty. I am betting that this is actually something totaly driven by Kodak. I think the process is nearly fixed and Kodak knows exactly how to fix the process. I think they have drug their feet knowing that over time they would be able to get the entire process. They forces UNXL to do this because UNXL knew if they didn't product would be delayed until later this year and the ramp would be nothing. UNXL would run out of money and go under. To survive UNXL needed to walk away.
So UNXL moved to the new model and they still have a future. I don't know how bright. Hopefully it all works in the end. There are some that still insist the touchless plating lines were the key to success and the plating lines in colorado are touchless. So maybe they can make small form factors and thinner line products using the xSense tech and they can use a printer they have to make a combination of inTouch and xSense at a cheaper price with 6 micron lines.
If Kodak gets the process rolling this year the royalties would actually be very nice in years to come.
I am not optimistic but there is a light at the end of the tunnel and I understand the conversion to our film can happen in 4 months so margins are over 20% at that point and maybe much higher if other process changes improve cost even further. Profits are a little further down the road but we now have real sales to report. That is one improvement.
But today is a sad day
It always feels better when your moving higher into the close. In truth I don't think it matters. This company has disappointed on nearly every call for the last several year. I am sure it is a few traders selling assuming the news will be poor again.
I also believe that Jeff needs to be very prepared for todays call. I anticipate several questions on cash and the need to do a secondary. They raised cash as part of the deal. So I don't think they need to do a secondary unless the company isn't selling product this year. You might even get to hear Richard Roe on the call. The shorts will flood the board with questions that could make the company look like things are going poorly.
My hope is that Jeff is ready for these questions. Preparation is key.
Bullish sign? Not sure. MOst end up worthless. But I think it is an indication there are many investors that believe this pull back is not going to last very long.
Should have held one Friday. Jeff is probably a good engineer but he needs some coaching on his CEO skills. He does not do a wonderful job handling the external finance side of the business. I am sure he is busy but he should be able to make an hour for something as important as telling investors the current status of intouch and why they did the deal with ATML? The investment community is obviously very confused.
This is the important comment from Ladenburg.
35X our revised 2016 estimated non-GAAP cash earnings of $0.57 equates to roughly $20.00 per share. As such, we maintain our Buy rating and our $20.00 price target.
They are sensing weakness in the short position and will at some point buy to force the shorts into covering. These 2 million short shares will need to be covered. I am not sure how many are unhedged but if 2 million shares truly need to be covered it would move the stock $2-$5.
Obviously things are going well. The share price is telling us that news is on the way. It is looking like $10 or more is coming in the near future. We just need the news.
Nice dream. I wish. Maybe in a few years that could be true. As of today they can't likely do more than a few hundred thousand. Capacity will likely reach a million a month at some point this year. I am thinking likely in 3rd qtr.
1st qtr revenue and loss don't matter.
Only thing that matters is guidance on production process and future sales.
I am betting the day we announce deliveries and commercial production the stock is hitting 52 week highs. A little momentum and we could see nice moves. UNXL starts delivering and there is absolutely no reason to be short. At that point the nearly 2 million shares needs to be covered. This won't be a huge squeeze but we could see a fast move to $10+
2nd Qtr is next week. Get ready for a real move. If the company is still planning deliveries in the 2nd qtr the word will spread. A double is likely over the near term. IMO
Interesting. I asked if I could get one of the first items using inTouch. They probably only have 100 investors that have held for 3 years.
Company shipped 2 barrells. Price was likely in the $10,000 a barrell range. Big deal. That is not important. Shipping shows progress towards more sales. Big first step. But DG means nothing.
As for the inTouch yields. No kidding the yields are still all over. The chart you saw was old and the transport system was not fixed. yields won't improve dramatically until the micro-scratch issue is resolved. That is now resolved and the yields should finally imporove dramatically.
Only thing that angers me right now is that the company should have installed the touchless transport systems 12 months ago. Should have never taken this long. But who cares. The company has finally arrived or appears to be close to arriving. If the trasport system works as hoped you will seee a dramatic increase in price soon. Deliveries will follow as the process is finalized.
2nd qtr will likely be the turning point for this company. Diamond guard is going to start selling. Several potential buyers and the the company is making progress with them all. As the company proves that diamond guard can be applied to multiple surfaces in a spray or utilizing an ink jet it will see more buyers using the product. The initial tests are the tough part and it seems that diamond gaurd is passing the tests. Won't bew a huge business but DG could be a leader in the protective coating area in a few years. It will be the hardest and most scratch resistant material on the market.
The first commecial deliveries of inTouch will be made in 2nd qtr. Hopefully early in the quarter. This will signal that our process finally works. We will aso get news that the touchless transport system is installed and solved the micro-scratch issue. Hopefully that will mean that our internal yields and the integration yields will improve.
Conference call will be held in early May and prior to that call the 2 items above will hopefully be acheived. The May call should be the end of the shorts. You haven't seen Richard lately. He may show up around the time of the call but it is more likely his bosses will have covered.
Market cap is less than $70 million. Revnues are currently running about 28 million a year. Until ETAK gets kicked out of Mexico the revenue number should increase each month. Seems like the market cap is starting to hit the low end of the trading range. Unless of course we get kicked out with no replacement revenue. But you know that the mexico revenue will continue at least until mid 2015 or beyond. I would really like this to get a resolution soon. If for no other reason other than to see the company move forward. Either with or without the mexico revenue.
Not a big deal but I see it as a net positive. Jeff Clark exercised shares and sold only enough to pay for the taxes. It isn't like he decided to sell all 36K shares. I see that as a positive.
Toninght is goign to be an interesting call. What will Kodak have to say? Hope it is a positive.
I think it is very likely ATT kicks ETAK out this month. ETAK will get some sort of settlement. This will be interesting to see how it turns out. I do know that ATT doesn't currently have anything that will perform to the level of ETAK. They may still choose to not use ETAK but you never know what the out come of this decision will be. If ATT decides the ETAK will be their choice the stock price will recover to $1 or more very quickly. Unfortunately the odds are low that is going to happen.
The company does have several additional customers that will help replace the ATT revenue.
Long term I think ETAK will be ok. It is just a longer term stock.. Wish I was buying now instead of at $.90. But who knew ATT would buy our biggest customer.
What is going to happen over the next couple months. Here is what I think you can anticipate.
1) More traction with Diamond guard. The 2 barrels is about $20,000. Big deal. And we will have a slow ramp. But there are many potential customers looking at Diamond Guard. Soon it will be 25-50 barrells a month. Then by this time next year it will be hundreds of barrells a month. Diamond guard is a better product than other protective products. It will be used on many products as it proves to be effective and more durable than the competition. Like anything it takes time to grow a business.
2) The new transport system is nearly ready to go. I am betting next week that Kodak will say things are going very well. If the transport system corrects the stractch issue the company will be ready to deliver.
3) Kodak may tell us but maybe not but if the micro scratch issue is resolved the yields off the line will likely improve to the goals of 75% or more. I believe that yields are likely to be 80-90% by the summer. With the big issues resolved it will just be tweaks that get it to higher levels each month. As they do production runs they will learn more each time the do a run.
4) Next is the deliveries. The next CC is in May. It is likely that we will have deliveries prior to that call. Again the product will start with smaller volumes but over the next 3 months if they prove they can deliver and the product you will likely see higher volumes going into the Christmas season. Then it will really be 2016 when everything takes off.
5) If the product works well you can anticipate an asian partner by year end. Vertical integration is going to be important. I am anticipating a partnership and a new plant in asia in 2016. To set up a new plant won't take a long time. The secret sauce is known. It is just a matter of ordering the correct equipment.
It may take some time but by the fall UNXL will be a hot stock again. If not before. IMO