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Infinera Corporation Message Board

ragingbullbuyandsell 60 posts  |  Last Activity: 3 hours ago Member since: Jul 8, 2008
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  • Reply to

    Dr. Welch continues to liquidate shares

    by g_e_t_c_h_a_s_o_m_e Aug 28, 2014 8:34 AM
    ragingbullbuyandsell ragingbullbuyandsell 3 hours ago Flag

    imvho, it doesn't seem likely that the two Dr's would clash, if they're both reasonable guys that agree with the Company's direction and focus. More than enough technical challenges to overcome, without feeling threatened.

    The one that probably risks feeling the most excluded from the daily tech-speak is Mr Fallon, but his interest is Operations and Sales, which the two Dr's I'm sure laud plenty of respect his way.

  • ragingbullbuyandsell by ragingbullbuyandsell Aug 26, 2014 3:25 PM Flag

    Both INFN and CIEN jumping.

    CIena expecting to swing to a profit on 18% rev growth.

    Hopefully Infinera's surge in price and volume is not just in-step with their main Competition... market is
    waiting for a huge win. That would definitely be a more permanent boost to the stock price than just their Sept technology show that will probably underwhelm high analyst expectations, especially Mr Notter's.

  • ragingbullbuyandsell ragingbullbuyandsell Aug 25, 2014 10:48 AM Flag

    Akado is an existing customer since 2013.
    Apparently, they started by buying DTN's and ATN's back around March 2013 for their Moscow Metro market. This sounds like a nice example of a telecom using all of Infinera's systems.

    " Vitaly Klishin, business development director at Akado Group. “As one of the first service providers in Russia to offer 100 GbE services, we are committed to continuously satisfying the needs of over 3,500 enterprises, 350 service providers, and over 12,000 state organizations, and will further innovate our backbone network in 2013.” "

  • As Level3 grows, hopefully so does Infinera.

    It's interesting how computing and data storage seems to be returning back to an advanced form of the old-school mainframe configuration, but for a different reason, aggregation and correlation of mountains of data. Everything is putting massive data and content transfer demands on LAN's, WAN's, and LH.

  • Byron probably already noted the recent decent news coming out of Neophotonics.

    Price surged 14.9% in early August, albeit just from near their 52 week low, though.
    Optical sector is brutal. Neophotonics gross margins had been dipping below 20% but they see it going back up to 22-26% range in Q3, probably due to their newer 100G products.

    Revenue for Q2 was $77.5M
    Net loss was $6.8M ($0.21)/share, including a $3.9M gain from closing escrow on their Santur acquisition

    Revenue for Q1 was $68.2M
    Net loss was $12.6M ($0.40)/share

    Revenue guidance for Q3 IS $78-82M
    Net loss guidance of ($0.14-$0.24) / share

    Their PIC-based components are doing well, they claim especially for 100G applications.

  • ragingbullbuyandsell ragingbullbuyandsell Aug 18, 2014 12:52 PM Flag

    MarketWatch article wording:

    "Telstra, Australia's leading telecommunications provider, confirms Ericsson as its continued supplier for optical transport equipment and services....

    This agreement also supports the introduction of sophisticated software defined networking (SDN) and network function virtualization (NFV) functionality, which will form an essential path to deliver flexible and scalable control networks.

    By implementing cloud and real-time control capabilities of Service Provider SDN and NFV, boundaries of the traditional data center can be transcended without compromising quality

    Ericsson signed a strategic agreement with Ciena in February 2014 enabling Ericsson to sell and support Ciena's Converged Packet Optical portfolio, and collaborate on the joint development of the Multilayer WAN Controller.

    More so than ever, we're seeing the value of an ecosystem model prove out as the transition continues toward networks that scale and adapt to network-level applications and services," said Philippe Morin, senior vice president of Worldwide Sales and Field Operations at Ciena. "We are delivering on that promise through our partnership with Ericsson, bringing customers best-in-class solutions that address the evolving requirements for open, programmable, software-defined networks."

    The agreement with Ericsson will mean Telstra will continue to deliver the most reliable and best performing connectivity of any carrier in Australia."

    Ericsson was one of the incumbents and was deemed qualified to continue.

  • ragingbullbuyandsell by ragingbullbuyandsell Aug 6, 2014 4:47 PM Flag

    Impressive dude. He should add even more class to Infinera's exec lineup. Hopefully he adds rational balance to all the cheap shares being thrown around by lifting the Company up to the major leagues.

    Not clear if he is a long-distance executive based in New York, or made the move to California. In any case, stepping onto the Infinera dingy has really lopsided the executive balance. It'll take time, but hope he can help grow it into a battleship.

    Current SVP Cloud Network Strategy and Technology. at Infinera

    Past VP & Chief Technologist , Verizon Labs at Verizon
    Chief Technologist, Verizon Digital Media Services at Verizon
    VP - Network Architecture at Verizon
    Associater Research Faculty
    Manager of Technology, Lasers for Medicine, Inc
    Staff Engineer, StorageTek

    Columbia University
    Education Columbia University in the City of New York
    University of Rochester

  • ragingbullbuyandsell by ragingbullbuyandsell Aug 6, 2014 7:56 AM Flag

    1Q2014 $138.4M sales 0.09 loss/share
    2Q2014 $165.4M sales 0.04 profit/share

    Their breakeven point has shifted up to roughly $155M revenue per Q. For every additional $10M above that level, they earn about $0.04/share.

    At the current $9 share price
    $165M per Q, P/E = 56
    $175M per Q, P/E = 28
    $185M per Q, P/E = 19

    If I did the math correctly and if the Company can sustain even a moderate amount of sales growth, the share price should start moving up and maintain a more growth P/E. They're working to expand their addressable market. Hopefully they can soon sell strongly into these areas to bolter what GLW says is a meager Customer portfolio relative to the bigger players. It's true that Infinera has a long way to go to get to their revenue levels, much less the never-before-exceeded $1B/year barrier.

  • ragingbullbuyandsell ragingbullbuyandsell Aug 6, 2014 7:15 AM Flag

    Follow-on comments

    Ray Le Maistre, Lightreading Editor-in-chief
    User Rank: Blogger
    8/5/2014 | 11:27:39 AM

    "Smart marketing move
    This looks like a very smart move on Infinera's part.... that's a high profile name who can provide unique insight into the needs of Tier 1 players and take a message to market that everyone will listen to."

    sam masud,
    User Rank: Light Sabre
    8/5/2014 | 2:48:54 PM

    "Re: Smart marketing move
    A definite win for Infinera but I wonder how much it will damage VZ since his successor might have a very different vision when it comes to new technologies. Of course, s/he might stay the course, but that would be a surprise given that new technologies themselves are in a flux. "

    Carol Wilson, Lightreading Editor-at-large
    User Rank: Blogger
    8/5/2014 | 2:56:52 PM

    "Re: Smart marketing move
    Interesting thought - I can't see any wild swings or changes. Even with things in flux, companies like Verizon make very measured decisions. But it will be interesting to see where the virtualization strategy goes now with Prodip Sen no longer there and where the networking strategy goes post-Elby.

    It's also worth noting that Stu Elby was doing more work on the digital media side, of late. "

  • ragingbullbuyandsell by ragingbullbuyandsell Aug 6, 2014 7:09 AM Flag

    Verizon's Elby to Head Infinera's Cloud Team
    News Analysis
    Carol Wilson, Editor-at-large

    Long-time Verizon executive Stuart Elby has left the carrier to join Infinera, where he will head up the transport equipment vendor's new cloud network strategy and technology team

    Elby, who was most recently vice-president and chief technologist of Verizon Labs, was often the public face of Verizon's exploratory efforts into new technologies and network architectures, including most recently its work in cloud platforms and virtualization.

    He is also the second top Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ) technologist to leave the carrier in recent months for the vendor world, following the move of Prodip Sen, Verizon's NFV guru, who now leads Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ)'s NFV efforts.

    At Infinera Corp. (Nasdaq: INFN), Elby will head up a new group focused on the transport infrastructure requirements of data center operators, the network operators that connect them and the growing ecosystem of companies developing systems that enable cloud services. This segment has become a major focus for telecom service providers and prompted other moves within the vendor community, including a significant effort by Cisco.

    The congenial Elby is very familiar with the packet-optical transport technology sector as he was known for his work on Verizon's metro and long-haul network architectures, particularly as they evolved to support cloud services. He was also a key figure in developing the Verizon Digital Media Services approach to distributing content.

  • Reply to

    INFN in at Verizon

    by byronangel Aug 5, 2014 9:10 AM
    ragingbullbuyandsell ragingbullbuyandsell Aug 5, 2014 10:41 PM Flag

    Dang. Effects, not affects. Need a cup of coffee.

  • Reply to

    INFN in at Verizon

    by byronangel Aug 5, 2014 9:10 AM
    ragingbullbuyandsell ragingbullbuyandsell Aug 5, 2014 10:40 PM Flag

    Reach limited doesn't matter, in the Metro, I meant to say.

  • Reply to

    INFN in at Verizon

    by byronangel Aug 5, 2014 9:10 AM
    ragingbullbuyandsell ragingbullbuyandsell Aug 5, 2014 10:39 PM Flag

    Doubtful Infinera wants to own a disadvantage in electronics.

    Interesting that both Ciena and Alcatel have superior electronics, when Infinera counts on OEO. Higher capacity per fiber but reach limited, which doesn't matter in the Metro.

    Impressive that you can refer to Dr Elby on a shortened first name basis. Well, now Infinera has two Dr's with impressive credentials in the industry. Every company has to start somewhere in trying to topple the big incumbents. Going through a US mortgage crisis with affects tangled around the entire economy didn't help in their effort to close that legacy lead.

  • Reply to

    INFN in at Verizon

    by byronangel Aug 5, 2014 9:10 AM
    ragingbullbuyandsell ragingbullbuyandsell Aug 5, 2014 12:58 PM Flag

    Having Dr Elby as an employee rather than just a Board Director sounds like he has a lot more than opinions to ante up and is ready to roll up his sleeves and get to work.

    Infinera's product intro timing should get a lot better, if it isn't already, with his Verizon pool of knowledge. Infinera's September tech demo should be metro-centric informative, although I am preparing myself not to hear about any specific product entry dates. Mr Fallon never seems to have any early pleasant surprises of the type George Notter mentioned. 2015 stated target date is a relatively long ways away, from an R&D standpoint.

  • Reply to

    INFN in at Verizon

    by byronangel Aug 5, 2014 9:10 AM
    ragingbullbuyandsell ragingbullbuyandsell Aug 5, 2014 12:42 PM Flag

    Not obvious whether Dr Elby's switch to Infinera means he still has any clout with his old employer. Probably a better setup if he had stayed and pulled Infinera in as a vendor. Now that he's on the outside looking in, he probably has the same magic, or lack thereof, as the ex-Verizon Infinera director.

    This ship jumping, along with the Alcatel last minute dealings might indicate Verizon is veering away from Dr Elby's long term vision, so he left to pursue it with Infinera. Or perhaps Verizon Labs just wasn't challenging enough, no hard feelings, and like Byron says Infinera still has a chance with VZ.

    Either way, hopefully Dr Elby eventually can help to bring the big players into the Infinera Customer portfolio. He is a believer in their approach and decided to join the effort. Could be the general counsel executive function was eliminated specifically to make salary room for the hefty contract that Dr Elby warrants. High tech drives sales.

  • ragingbullbuyandsell by ragingbullbuyandsell Aug 4, 2014 3:24 AM Flag

    I flipped through Infinera's cash flow summaries and cherry picked the following numbers: diluted shares....cost per new share
    2014 $8,401,000 126,758,000 9,333,000 $0.90
    2013 $23,185,000 117,425,000 6,686,000 $3.47
    2012 $11,580,000 110,739,000 5,307,000 $2.18
    2011 $10,023,000 105,432,000 6,052,000 $1.66
    2010 $19,348,000 99,380,000 3,912,000 $4.95
    2009 $9,310,000 95,468,000 3,041,000 $3.06
    2008 $11,482,000 92,427,000

    Looks like 2011-2013 were pretty healthy years, for their ESPP
    Appears a significant amount of cheap shares to top executives diluted the cost per new share so far, in 2014.

  • ragingbullbuyandsell ragingbullbuyandsell Aug 3, 2014 4:07 PM Flag

    Regardless how one does the math, the prime time for Infinera to get sold or at least partner with a bigger player seems to be 2015. DTN, ATN, DTN-X, and new Metro product will be selling into their max addressable market. Competitors are all predicting a strong year. Hopefully Infinera can continue to ramp sales and then combine with a bigger player who can block for them and quickly break into the really big contract wins, before the next optical transport slowdown.

  • ragingbullbuyandsell ragingbullbuyandsell Aug 1, 2014 12:14 PM Flag


    Thanks, in advance.

  • ragingbullbuyandsell ragingbullbuyandsell Jul 31, 2014 11:54 PM Flag

    Link to article explaining that ?
    I couldn't find it, based on Googling Telcordia, Ericsson, OSMINE.
    Still learning...

  • ragingbullbuyandsell ragingbullbuyandsell Jul 31, 2014 11:35 PM Flag

    I had glanced at the article and assumed wrong that he was comparing Y-o-Y.
    It would have been tripling, in that case

    Sorry to trigger so much OFFENSE. You must be a PhD.

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