Back in mid 2012, Infinera apparently won a small contract worth about $10M direct from Railtel, to install DTN's for Railtel's support of NKN's initiative to link 350 of the 1500 Indian institutions, universities, and R&D centers.
In a seemingly separate situation in mid-February 2013, a United Telecoms Limited partnership with Infinera got stalled by Railtel when contract technical requirements were supposedly altered after UTL was awarded the work.
It sounds like Infinera was in on both deals, if they aren't one and the same contracts... they got the red carpet treatment on the first one which later got stalled when Infinera's Competition (Ciena, etc) threatened to file grievance. On the second one, Railtel claimed Infinera didn't have all the required paperwork submitted to the Indian government and UTL needed to expedite compliance from their optical equipment partner.
It is really old news but seems to give a flavor of how Infinera has been bidding, in India
Analysts on LightReading say don't expect much in the way of large equipment sales going forward to any of the international Subsea cable operators. Too much capacity ripe for consolidation, to improve utilization:
"Telstra has emerged as the latest potential savior for Hong Kong-based regional network operator Pacnet, with Australian incumbent having confirmed a Bloomberg report that it is in talks with Pacnet's owners about a possible acquisition. "
"Pacnet's main asset is its wholly-owned 36,800-kilometer EAC-C2C network, which has up to 30 Tbit/s of capacity running to and from each landing country"
Gorilla Glass is considered a Specialty Materials market. They indicate much bigger sales for generic LCD screens that's 39% of their total revenue.
Corning sales boost looks to be mostly related to their Gorilla Glass for LCD TV's and installation of FTTH routes. Neither directly helps Infinera.
Ericsson sales in Mobile Broadband is slowing in NA, I don't think this impacts Infinera, if they are referring to mobile backhaul equipment from cell towers to the network. Ericsson inked a partnership with Ciena apparently to bolster the optical equipment portion of their product line, so we probably should focus on what Ciena says with respect to sales ex- VZ and T.
Sales of mobile broadband in the quarter continued to be driven by network quality and capacity expansions, however at lower levels as operators remained focused on cash flow optimization to finance acquisitions and spectrum auctions."
Accelerate. That's the ticket... how much the Revenue ramp is changing.
Analysts are initially not seeing the additional windows of opportunity that Infinera is opening the curtains on and subsequently not expecting these revenues to compound.
Sales close the mainly footprint deals to make it easy for buyers to sample their product.
No problem sir, take your time, see how you like it.
Lightly populated chassis and DLM's on their pay per channel program to ease any sticker shock until they eventually get hooked and can't stop themselves from buying more DLM's and TAM's.
So, we get to $20/share by end of this year according to analysts.
By end of 2016, maybe $40/share if Infinera deserves a P/S comparable to F5 and the Company doesn't go hog wild adding on to the share count to retain valuable employee contributors and teams.
If they win something big beyond what's driving current growth over the last 5 quarters, as noted by one of the analysts... turbo-boosted happy days.
Looks like Infinera revenue growth for 2014 was 30%
If they can sustain that for 3 years... (1.3)(1.3)(1.3) = 2.2 X 2013 yearly revenue
Fiscal Year 2016 revenue: $544M x 2.2 = $1197M
Assume by then we're still at 135M shares, which is probably unconservative given the history of share growth
Assuming a Price/Sales ratio of 4.7 (same as powerhouse F5)
$42 share price, going into 2017
Any big wins before then, we get to the forties, earlier
Thanks, Senor PorscheTurbo.
Looks like analysts are racheting up their estimates based on a slow but steady gain in revenues from new Customers, adding footprint, filling footprint. What's not showing up yet is whether the gains each quarter are following a relatively unexciting linear trend or if it's becoming more like exponential.
Thomas Fallon - Chief Executive Officer
"So in regard, Rod, to a large metro RFQ, I’m going to start by saying first of all, there are a lot of large metro RFQs right now, and I know which one you are referring to, but I think it’s important to put in context. We are seeing a tremendous opportunities in metro, metro cloud in particular right now, and they are of a tremendous scale. And I think, the industry continues to still focus too much on a couple of Tier 1s and what they are doing as the proxy for the industry. And I continue to remind people that that is an antiquated view, they still spend a lot of money, but there are huge architectural shifts and shifts in who is building large networks, both long-haul and metro.
In regard to the Tier 1, one, I’m sure you are referring to, we are actually not participating in that RFQ. We have an outstanding portfolio, we are bringing our metro aggregation product to market as we talked about later this year, but it is not one that is going to be in time for what they’re looking for now."
me 3+. If those new execs can add some accelerant to their Government and Cloud contract wins, that'll add some nice loooong term contracts to fuel growth, especially with the US economy on the rise, again.
Those analysts were nice in not volleying back that it's been mostly downhill for the stock over the last 7 years, albeit some of that during the time when the US economy almost went over the brink, thanks to Wall Street. Infinera's vision for what the networks will be is getting concurrence from some of its market sector. When it becomes pervasive, the stock will really be on a run.
Thanks for sharing "p1turbo2003 is UN-fraud"
Notter's target and upside sound about the same as rough calc from "RagingBBSht is a fraud". Anything else is pure momentum trading, which would be unexpected but heartily welcomed by this fraud.
Yeah, Mr Fallon said they didn't bother to submit a bid with the implied reason being that they didn't qualify... no hardware ready to meet Verizon's schedule. It would be a great to win VZ or ATT, but as Infinera points out, there are a lot of other big fish to catch. Verizon could easily adjust their schedule if they thought Infinera's approach was extremely compelling. 1 year is not that long, or less if Verizon says they'll wait if Infinera speeds R&D up. But analysts say award is coming soon to frontrunners Ciena and Cisco. No slouches there, if they can beat Alcatel, Fujitsu, Ericsson.
Mr Notter's concern about lower than expected margins associated with initial deployments shouldn't be a problem if those aren't fully populated systems. It's nothing but great news if Infinera is able to add Customers and accelerate securing new footprint. Razor and razor blade business executing at its best.
10 new DTN-X customers is great news, especially since their PXM product isn't shipping, yet. Once that module becomes available, one would expect Infinera to start winning some of the high end Metro aggregation opportunities out there.
Interesting to hear that the CX that introduced in December was focused on appeasing just the 40 GbE client-side need. Another quarter of development effort to deliver the 10GbE version, next. Two more quarters of effort to deliver the 100GbE version, lastly. By 2Q2015, that gets them feature set-wise on par with the other Cloud equipment providers. Really nice that Infinera is getting the relatively bare metal out there as fast as they can, then upgrading it over time.
Expect the same product intro will eventually occur with their Metro aggregation product. Get the baseline system selling and let the upgrades catch up to it, later.
A very confident conference call, with a little pushback for effect with the analysts that downgraded right before the call, couldn't believe it, and wanted to see a lumpiness in the revenues going forward.
Firing on all cylinders, with more cylinders coming on line mid-2015 and in 2016. Maybe a partnership with Juniper is on the horizon, to juice up Infinera's 20% R&D budget. That would make the stock price skip a few iterations of trending.
Hope Pturbo has the time and inclination to share analyst comments from those paid subscriptions.
Analysts should be getting incrementally more positive, with the CX starting to sell into a new market. If the Company ever gets granular enough to disclose that the PXM is selling well, that would be a good sign the Company is growing in Metro aggregation, even before their less powerful Metro Product comes out next year. Seems like the XTC-4 with PXM is right-sized for Metro 100G aggregation, now. Verizon must have been expecting to do Metro aggregation at many traffic levels, for Infinera not to bother with bidding. Like Mr Fallon implied in the past, they'll focus on selling to everybody ex- the two largest US RBOC's, who have their own vision and network engineers willing to lead them down a different approach that Dr Elby disagreed with.
Enough of this wasting time with big mouths. Go ahead you can have the last word. Guaranteed to be low class. Remember, you have homework due for school, tomorrow.