rogere, I find stop loses counter productive because you get stopped out on high volitile days. Its better to take incremental profits if you have large gains.
The chart looks bad with MACD not looking pretty, but that was based on 2 things: shrinking rates as well as the DOW losing over 300 points today. I suspect there will be a bounce tomorrow on the DOW and Friday, if some of the government data is revised upwards, then we could see a quick rebound.
The weather has had a huge impact on the market becaue of manufacturing as well as consumer spending impacted. With bad weather, the pent up demand remains. A market correction was in the works and I think we are close to the end of the retracement where sentiment will again shift to the positive.
Another aspect of the recent market action is it ties Janet Yelen's hands. The hawkish Fed board members will not have a good case to accelerate tapering, and Yelen could reverse it and say under the circumstances, tapering was initiated too early and too aggressively. Also the EU is also now discussing their own QE easing process in the near future, only Germany objects to it, but becaue their own economy needs some stimulus, they too may have no option to go along with EU QE-2014. Up to now America has been doing the heavy lifting and the Europeans have been on a free ride. Should Yelen continue with tapering at the rate forecast, the EU has no option, do their own QE or face another great recession.
Half of Europe has not recovered from the 2008 crash and their getting impatient. There is lots of pressure to get the world economy moving. China wants it, Russia wants it, and the developing countries want the economy to improve.
All together I think that is good news for FRO.
Don't forget SFL, they still pay a 9% dividend.
To bad FRO doesn't own any Panamax. Day Rate is now $104,765
SUEZMAX now $70,068
Things are looking better.
On another note, Baltic Dry Index recently popped up to 2300, the cratered to 1400 but bounced on Friday.
These increasing tanker rates could influence the Baltic Dry Index as shipowners look at new strategies to get their rates back up where they deserve to be. If the dry bulkers started acclerating scrappings like the oil tanker owners did, they might help themselves. IMHO.
Did you look at the Panamax rates. Are they insane or what!
$96,070 per day
VLCC rates just pegged again.
Good thing I own a lot of shares of FRO and SFL.
VLCC rates back to $39,000 and 13 knot VLCC $45,737
I will be buying more SFL real soon.
SFL pays a 9% dividend. Its built into the stock price. NAT is losing money.
FRO looks good here. After hours it popped up higher. Should be a wild open in the morning.
Indicative figures - $/___________________________ $/day TC equivalents
day TC equivalents Jan 2, 2014
Segment___ Dwt_______ Route
VLCC_________265,000____ AG – Japan_______________$40,376
13Kt VLCC_____265,000____ AG – Japan_______________$57,582
Suezmax______130,000____ Caribs - US Gulf____________$52,412
Aframax ________80,000____ N Sea - Continent __________$60,309
Panamax _______70,000____ Caribs - US Gulf ___________$61,900
Intertanko and Lyods have not updated their numbers since DEC 24. Old numbers from the 24th:
VLCC -- $45,938 DAILY
13 KNOT VLCC $57,582
When they all get back from the holiday the numbers will be updated.
As more Japanese refineries rebuilt and repaired after the Tsunami's come back on line, they will resume their normal rate of imports, which gave the Chinese several years of Cheap rates. Approximately 1/3 of all the Japanese refineries were shut down after the Tsunami, which caused a huge drop in their oil demand. They had to switch to refined products, diesel and gas from the U.S. and other sources.
Add that to the unexpected BRUTAL COLD WINTER, and you will watch these tanker rates stay up there for a long time. Furthermore if there is any disruption due to middle east tensions and certain routes curtailed, the tanker rates could explode upwards.
My Cost Basis for FRO is around $3.50 I now own a lot of shares.
I'll ride it for a few more years. Have no reason to sell it any time soon.
I suspect they will pay dividends after the 4th quarter results show block buster recovery.
I can use all that big dividend money to buy a lot of other stocks.
It pays to be patient.
My cost basis was $2.02 I took profits today at $2.53. I had a lot of shares because I never listen to Audio's BS. I don't give a god dam if it goes BK, I saw a trade. Made a lot of money.
Keep drinking the Koolaid and thinking you know something. The rest of us will trade the stocks and make money.
Disclosure: I made a lot of money on TOPS. Audio is an idiot if you listen to his #$%$ you will never make money on trades.
Indicative figures - $/day TC equivalents
Change since - $/day TC equivalents
AG - Japan
Estimate VLCC AG - Japan at 13 knots
Caribs - US Gulf
N Sea - Continent
Caribs - US Gulf
Middle -East - Japan
Caribs - USAC
Continent - USAC
Brent blend - spot buy - $/bbl