Mexico exports start coming on strong in December to the tune of .5bcfd ramping up to 2.0bcfd in a couple of years.
Coal and Nuke plant retirements add at least 5bcfd of extra demand. CA is thinking hard about retiring a Nuke Plant soon in view of the recent earthquake.
LNG exports will add at least 7bcfd of demand. Its a ways off but the first .5bcfd commences with Sabine Pass in Q4 2015.
Marcellus continues to be a killer on supply - but there is good evidence that it will peak sometime in 2016. Utica is coming on strong as well. Eagle Ford will likely peak on NG production sometime in 2017. Bakken won't add much supply, and Haynesville won't ramp up production until NG hits at least 6.
Wind and Solar won't take up the slack, especially solar - the greenies are getting upset about all of the streamers (birds getting caught on fire) as they fly thru the solar arrays - there is no truly green energy - every source of energy has its problems.
CA is giving serious consideration to Nuking their current Nuke plant in view of the recent Earthquake. They already retired the other one. Nuclear Energy is the absolutely worst in terms of long term pollution problems - highly vulnerable to terrorist attacks and nobody knows where to send the spent fuel rods, so they just stay on site in swimming pools in metal warehouse shacks - look into it. It makes coal look green - at least if you take a long term view.
Short to mid term, it looks like NG will be stuck in the 4 to 5 range. Another cold winter could obviously change things, but so could a warm one. Longer term NG moves up a bunch, should get back to that old 10 to 1 ratio with Oil.
JMHO, I blew the call saying NG wouldn't go below 4, it did go a bit lower. But also said we would see 5, maybe 6, last winter - both happened. I'm not as bullish on this winter as I was last winter at this point. Marcellus continues to impress.
EOS - 3.5Tcf with NG moving towards 4.50
Eagle Ford and Permian are facing similar legacy well decline problems as Marcellus. I'm not worried about either of them. Utica is getting my attention. CAPEX in Eagle Ford has totally shifted to the wet side. And Permian is for the most part oil. Bakken has a bit of gas that's going to come into play but it's not that much.
Haynesville production isn't going to pick up anytime soon.
Round numbers on production growth in the next year:
Eagle Ford 1bcfd
Haynesville flat to declining.
Decline from older conventional fields 3bcfd.
Net gain 1.75bcfd - EIA has this slightly lower based on 70bcfd of production and 2.1% growth amounting to 1.4bcfd +\- extra supply. My round numbers are pretty close to what EIA has forecasts on supply growth.
Utica worries me a bit further out in the next 3 to 5 years, but so far appears to be largely wet. The other basins are maturing and won't see much growth - Utica could ramp up to 5bcfd growth or more in a few years, not annually.
Where I'm way off with EIA figures is on the demand side of the equation. EIA has us flat next year and then only slightly increasing in 2016 and 2017. They have it wrong in my opinion. Mexico exports grow to 2.0bcfd, LNG picks up EOY 2015, Industry and Coal should add at least another couple of Bcfd demand.
Renewables are going to take up some of the flack from Coal Plant Retirements. But then there are a bunch of Nukes retiring as well. I think the EIA has blown the call on the demand side. We shall see - JMHO - could definitely be wrong, but I think EIA are idiots (remember their 96% miss on the Monterey Shale?).
The big question is when Demand exceeds Supply - I'm thinking it happens at the end of Summer 2015 when a bunch of the Coal Plants (14GW) get retired. It may take a few months for the market to realize it.
Do your own DD, I own many NG stocks and Mineral Rights, and am biased towards an upside movement in the commodity.
All of the LNG export contracts that I've seen are based on HH plus 15% as well as transport costs. The foreign buyers assume all risk for HH prices going up. The processor(s) can't get financing and don't want to risk spending Billions if firm takeaway agreements are not in place. HH could go to 15, and the NG would still get sold or the buyer would have to pay a heavy penalty.
Chico, I've got NG heading to 5.50 - 6.00 sometime between 2015 and 2017, not just front months, but on the backside out for a year or two. Utica is coming on strong, so I may prove to be wrong. But lots of demand from exports (Mexico as well as LNG), Coal Plant retirements, Industry, and Transport.
I know you don't think 4.0bcfd of exports during this time frame amounts to much, but that's 1.460 tcf annualized - a Big Deal in my book. And there are many other demand drivers as well.
EIA is saying only 2.0% supply growth next year.
Marcellus pricing sucks, I'm surprised anybody would want to produce it considering better alternatives elsewhere. It trades at close to a 40% discount with HH. New infrastructure will probably give it a lift, but I don't blame Watford or anybody else for shifting CAPEX away in the meantime. A few counties in the sweetest of spots make sense, but the idea that 60,000,000 acres stack up to $100 Oil regarding ROR with HH at $4.00 Is a joke.
Marcellus is showing signs of peaking in 2016 - See EIA drilling report legacy well decline.
Getting hot in TX, the next couple of draws should be substantially lower. It's been over 100 across much of Texas lately and is supposed to be fairly hot for at least another week, though this summer has been relatively cool for TX so far. And very cool for much of the nation elsewhere.
Cold winter, cool summer, will we have another cold winter again? No way that could happen right? EOS at 3.4 to 3.5tcf and burn 3.0tcf or more next winter? If that happens there will be some brownouts and NG will go a lot higher than 6 at HH and those northeast City Gates will once again see 100mcf spikes with curtailment of NG to industry.
Lots of variables but when Majors like SHELL and XOM (Deep Pockets for CAPEX), can't make a dime in US shale gas plays, it makes you wonder how long the smaller independents are willing to produce or can produce without making a profit.
I still like the low cost producers: long UPL, RRC, SWN, and ECA. Have quite a few others in the Oil patch as well. Diversification is key, NG heading much higher in the next couple of years.
JMHO - EIA doesn't see it that way, but they blew the Monterey Shale call by 96% and there is no way that 60,000,000 acres in Marcellus make sense to drill at 4 NG.
Gman I'm right with you on EOS storage in the 3.4 to 3.5tcf area. Quicksilver has 60GW of Coal retirements in 11 months, that would be huge - I've got that amount by 2020, with around 15GW in the next year (a very significant amount though less than what QS posted).
Mexico exports ramp up in December or January by .5bcfd heading towards 2.0bcfd. Coal Plant retirements hit hard next summer, LNG exports start winter of 2015/2016. EIA has supply growth around 2.0% in 2015. Demand growth will be in excess of that, but not until summer 2015 when Coal Plants go offline. EIA will likely adjust pricing forecasts at that time. Hopefully many LNG export terminals have been approved by FERC and just add more upward pressure before EIA pricing forecast adjustments.
A bunch of NUKE plants are going to retire as well according to UPL slide show which will put additional upward pressure on NG.
Eventually NG will hit parity with Oil less the shipping and liquification process differentials - it always has in the past. Its likely going to happen by 2017 and I think we will see some solid moves by the end of next summer. A cold winter would obviously help as well. NG is up nicely in the past two years: this trend is solidly up, there will be some valleys, but the North American NG market will eventually come into equilibrium with global markets less pricing differentials for shipping and processing.
I guess you don't consider an extra 2.0bcfd of exports to Mexico in the next year or two exports? Sabine Pass another 2.0 bcfd by 2017 with .5bcfd starting EOY 2015 and building.
Similar to the way Neil calculates, but I've got 13 weeks averaging around 85bcf. Lots of new supply has come online in Marcellus, injections are going to be much higher than 5 year maximums for most of the weeks. Thinking closer to 3.5 at present. We may get a couple of small injections in November as well, so could see 15 weeks of injections.
Lots of variables but I'm pretty sure we will end up north of 3.4 and wouldn't rule out. 3.6. We will need another cold winter or its unlikely NG rallies much. By next summer with Mexico exports and Coal Plant Retirements demand may outstrip supply. Winter of 2016 could be a nightmare or great depending on how you look at it. Way too much base load coal is getting retired without adequate back up.
Billy, google Natural Gas Futures NYMEX. Producers can hedge out for years if they so choose.
When NG was at 6.50 on the front month, the months out a year or two where nowhere close to that level.
The futures market is still quite low and likely to stay that way until we see hints that demand is outstripping supply.
I've got this weeks build at 85, and EOS at close to 3.5, lots of new supply hitting the market. Demand from Coal Retirements and Mexico exports will hit hard by next summer. In the mean time it's all going to be about the weather.
Problem is we've gotten a ton of new supply and are going to get a bit more between now and fall. Some models are predicting mid-November before the first draw. Let's see how the weather unfolds. We had the coldest winter in decades followed up by what looks to be turning into the coldest summer in a decade. There is strong science indicating the lack of Sun Spots and Solar activity are to blame and that this situation may continue for years.
If we end up with 3.5 in storage and burn 3.0 plus next winter we will see some huge spikes. But the futures markets will not rollover positively until supply starts to decline or at least looks like there is no way it will keep up with future demand.
Cold winters and cold summers are much better for NG consumption than hot summers and mild winters. Antarctic Ice builds are setting records at present (depth of winter down there now). Arctic Ice got a good build this winter - AL Gore said the Arctic would be Ice Free by this summer, with Florida and much of low lying coastal areas soon to be under water.
These "climate scientist" really pull my chain. The percent of CO2 in the atmosphere is .04% or .0004 of total atmospheric content. That is one part per 2,500. Everybody is entitled to their own opinion, mine is that we could double our human CO2 emissions (only a fraction of total global natural CO2 emissions) and the effect on the atmosphere and temperature would be negligible. Yet the EPA and Obama administration are going to kill Coal in the USA.
A good argument can be made for getting rid of Mercury and other toxins that are produced from burning Coal, but this idea that increasing CO2 from 1 part per 2,500 to even a double of 2 parts per 2,500 significantly changing our climate is absurd.
Regardless of you opinion on Climate Change (no longer called Global Warming) its good news for us NG Bulls, but bad news for consumer utility bills.
The way I see it is Bennett wants to simplify the Income Statement, Balance Sheet, and get the Trusts out of the way. Through the trash in the garbage and get onto better things. Drill them out ASAP and clean up accounting and associated financial issues.
Like you said, SD has lots better areas to drill - Millions or at least several hundred thousands of acres outside of the Trusts that are far superior to drill.
I wonder if SD would even spend the bucks on putting an ESP on a Trust well vs. an SD wholly owned well. There are no requirements to do so. All SD has to do is drill the wells on time and then move on.
Trust owners got screwed, hopefully no major lawsuits.
Good questions. I doubt any more sales of Trust Shares until next year or maybe right at the end of this year so as to enter next year with a cleaner slate, but who knows. SD doesn't need the liquidity at present, and does not want to further revise guidance down for this year. In theory, SD could sell all but one share in each of the Trusts and still keep Trust production on the books - cooking the books so to speak and the street hates it.
How quickly do you think they will sell the common stock of SDT so they can use proceeds?
End of year or early next year.
You estimate another 8 months to wait for SDR common to be converted and then sold.
Likely end of next year or early 2016.
How much of a time line do yo give PER?
End of next year or early 2016.
Why don't they help investors by discounting or backing out the Trust increase/decrease in production numbers separately as that is really the future of the Company.
Trust Net Production numbers change each time SD makes a sale of Trust stocks - lots of accounting issues.
What is the point at which new non Trust production starts to show increase which is greater than the decline rates of trust wells?
CAPEX to non Trust production is already showing increases greater than SD's proportion of Trust wells. Think about 75% or greater interest in non Trust wells vs. 25 to 50% in Trust wells. SD is getting much better Cash Flow and ROR for wells outside of the Trusts.
SD Trust production goes into overall guidance and production numbers.
Including Trust production in gross production is confusing and should be discounted by 50 to 75%.
SDT has been drilled out and the restricted shares have now been converted to unrestricted or commons. SDR is also drilled out, but it's probably another 8 months or so before they can be converted to commons, PER will be drilled out in November.
SD will sell all of their shares in SDT, SDR, and PER to raise money for CAPEX or pay down debt. At that point the over exaggerated productions will disappear.
PER was the big problem this time around.
The parent company SD only has a 25% interest in the PER at present. Hence the lower volumes in this asset are not as significant as the Mississippian assets - 75% less so for the most part, although the Mississippian also has some J/Vs in certain areas which would not be on par with a 75% adjustment.
I've posted on several occasions in the past on the Cash Flow and EPS that the company would generate once the Trust obligations wind down. Its excellent for Cash Flow, ROR, and EPS to the parent company - SD. But production guidance figures are likely to be reduced, that's what just happened, and despite a beat on EPS, the stock got slaughtered.
NG probably isn't going to move hard one way or another until next winter at the earliest. If I was a trader, I'd say its more likely to go down in the shoulder season than up , but not appreciably. Mexico exports start to hit in December of .5bcfd if all goes according to plan. The Big Demand generator of 2015 will be Coal Plant retirements of 14GW or more with most retirements starting in Spring and done by summer. A cold winter would obviously cause some spikes. Coal Plant retirements and Mexico exports will increase demand by 3 to 5bcfd by the end of summer. Its unlikely that supply will keep up, that's a ton of new NG that will be needed in only a few short months. Futures market needs to move up a bunch for next summer and soon, or there are going to be some severe shortages come winter of 2016.
The Power Grid won't be able to handle an extreme cold winter in 2016, and definitely had problems this past winter, 2015 could be a problem as well. But in 2016 a tremendous amount of Base Load Coal will be off line and not enough new NG supply will be available to service extreme loads. Very alarming to say the least. I live in TX, not worried about freezing to death, and its unlikely anybody will freeze to death elsewhere, but you could see severe energy curtailment to industry causing great economic harm. Obama and the EPA boys with their MATS act and attack on coal haven't thought this thru. Things could get real nasty for our power grid in the next few years.
I own minerals in numerous counties in OK and TX. All of the newer leases contain provision in them that allow the E&P companies to use NG on sight for rigs, trucks, generators etc. Its a bone of contention, and I've told those that want my gas for free to take a hike. Nonetheless, the industry is moving rapidly towards being able to use cheap NG on sight and the technology is there, at least on the newer rigs to run off of NG or dual fuel Diesel.
Hope you are right bqdoo. I'm now figuring storage ends up in the 3.4 to 3.5 tcf area. Things should get interesting next year. Mexico exports ramp up by .5bcfd in December or January and massive Coal Plant retirements of 14GW or more start in the Spring: the two combined leading to at least 3bcfd of additional demand and likely closer to 5bcfd. By next summer the market should feel the impact. The question is whether supply will keep up with new demand.
Marcellus production growth has been truly remarkable but is showing some signs of tapering off (legacy well production decline over taking new wells or at least closing the gap significantly). Utica production growth is starting to enter the picture and is likely to grow substantially, though much of it is liquids. Eagle Ford production is still growing, but it too is rapidly being overtaken by legacy well declines.
I'm figuring 3rd to 4th quarter of 2015 is when NG starts to run. It is almost certain to take off by 2017 when the LNG exports kick in hard along with another 1.5bcfd of exports to Mexico. Once its obvious supply isn't going to keep up with demand, we could see a period of at least a year with highly elevated prices as new rigs have a waiting period of 12 months. If oil collapses, some rigs could move over to NG, but that appears doubtful at present.
Cleint9, please accept my apology for saying anything negative about your relative. As I recall it was around 3 years ago when you and/or Wi brought up something about Billy having his foot injured (amputated?) while serving our military in Iraq or Afghanistan.
At the time some doubted you and even offered to help monetarily if you cared to prove it up. Perhaps you would like to expand on things now: what where his injuries, medals received, dates of service, military branch and areas of operation. I truly love war hero stories and hope that you will share things with us.
Its likely that Billy is a Hero, please share his accomplishments with us so that we can pay due respect.
Most of us respect and honor all of our Veterans and Active Military. Its a wonderful country that we live in and is in large part a result of having the finest military in the world.
All of our families have suffered trauma in some sort of form: cancer, heart disease, early deaths, amputation, debilitating car wrecks, birth defects, etc. Few of us post our tragedies to a message board in search of sympathy or reward.
Nonetheless, I humbly apologize to you and hope that you will forgive me for my transgressions, get over your anger, and share Billy's story.
Tough call what will happen in 5 years. But, I've got a very good crystal ball that I picked up in India.
There are only two times a year when it predicts the future with extreme accuracy. These times are when the solar solstice occurs (winter as well as summer), Sun's rays have to directly hit crystal ball. Got a perfect read last winter, but was off by a few seconds this summer:
LNG Exports 7bcfd
Coal Plant retirements 4bcfd
Industrial Growth. 2.5bcfd
Mexico Exports 2.0 bcfd
Nuclear Plant Retirements 1.0bcfd
Well over 15bcfd of new demand within 3 to 5 years.
Production growth 2015 of 1.0bcfd - flat to down thereafter. Legacy well production decline to overtake New Well production during 2016 in Marcellus. Mexico exports will takeaway 2.0bcfd from Eagle Ford by EOY of 2016.
LNG exports commence on train 1 of Sabine Pass EOY 2015 of .5bcfd ramping up to 2.0bcfd by 2017.
NG moves up significantly between 2015 and 2017. Spikes much higher are likely. Futures markets have to allow for hedging out several years in the 6.0 area before rigs move back. Sub 350 rig count will not maintain current production much less increase it.
No CAPEX for NG in 2015. Shortages hit hard by 2016, with Rig delays of 12 months.
Backlog wells in the Marcellus have been worked thru.
SD will grow production and be sold once the OXY contract issues are resolved. Most NG stocks will double or more within 3 to 5 years.
Crystal Ball also works with accuracy when its perfectly aligned North and there is a full double rainbow that reflects thru it. So far that hasn't happened and I've had a few embarrassing moments trying to explain to people why I'm out on the streets or on a hiking trail with a Crystal Ball laid out in front of a Rainbow.
NG is going much higher in the next few years. JMHO, do your own DD.
There is still more downside risk to NG. Maybe down to the 3.50 area (hope I'm wrong). Injections are running much higher than what I expected. A lot of new supply has come online in the Marcellus and to a lessor extent the Eagle Ford. More supply is on the way from the Marcellus and weather has been abnormally cool this summer.
That's the bad news.
Good news is that Mexico exports ramp up by EOY if pipeline construction is completed on time. Mexico is willing to pay higher prices than HH, and there is a good chance that the net supply to US markets will drop by 1.0 to 2.0 bcfd from the Eagle Ford and elsewhere. Mexico pays over 15mcf to import LNG, plus they use oil for some of their power generation - they will be thrilled to buy our gas in that 5.50 to 6.0 area I've been talking about.
I see Marcellus production peaking early 2016 (sub 5.50 pricing) and Eagle Ford net supply to the US market declining from 2015 forward as Mexico demand grows. Bakken will add some additional supply as they are starting to hookup wells that were previously being flared - Bakken isn't that big of a deal as it is predominantly oil. The rest of the fields will likely decline leading to little supply growth in 2015 forward.
Eagle Ford is already having some serious decline problems with Legacy NG production - around 80% of current production.
Demand will increase substantially thru Coal & Nuclear Plant retirements, Industrial demand, Gas to Liquids, and the Transport Sector.
At this point, I'd say 3.50 NG is as low as it goes. Coal is tough to come by, some Utilities have been importing coal from Russia at much higher prices so as to have adequate stockpiles heading into winter. That is actually good news for NG, as many Utilities are going to burn NG in lieu of Coal - they need Coal stockpiles heading into winter.
I put a few of my antagonists on ignore, have done this in the past but was informed by one of them that they could still see my posts, and all that I was doing was hiding their comments. For some reason these guys love to hate me.
Appreciate what others add to this MB on well updates, analysis of geology and drilling techniques, as well as technical details, political crisis and direction of Oil and NG.
GLTA longs weather is killing us now, but it looks like temperatures will soon get back to the norms.
Looks like I've got a bunch of fair weather friends. And to be fair, the weather has been quite fair so far this summer. Injections are running high as a result, and NG is of course tanking.
A few points on me being right and wrong on SD and NG:
1. I sold 1/2 of my position in SD at $11.32 when Prem Watsa was unloading. Subsequently bought back in much lower and have made money in this stock.
2. Called a double bottom in NG when it hit 2.20, I was wrong on that as it did go a bit lower, but wasn't off by much.
3. Stated back in November that NG would hit 5, maybe 6 this winter - it did in fact do so.
4. Stated at the same time back in November that 4 would be the new floor for NG, looks like I blew that call - let's see how far I'm off. The next couple of weeks could see more downside.
A lot of DD and research goes into what I post. Rarely do I attack or criticize others. Hopefully some of you have gained greater insight and knowledge as a result thereof. Perhaps its time for Rainbow to ride into the sunset.
A lot of the companies post their hedge info in their presentations. Go to their websites and check for the latest presentation. There is not a service or publication that gathers this information on an industry wide basis that I'm aware of.