Anyone short the stock here? Please describe briefly the bear case and whether you think the consensus EPS estimates are still to high. What price would you consider covering at that signifies fair value?
Their 2020 EPS is modeled at $3.79 on revenue of $370M. The discount rate to its 6 year forward earnings and probable stock price is approx. 22.5% according to my napkin.
The stock is going up not because of any chart pattern, it's going up because of my prior post.
I spotted an ex hedge fund manager who once had a big position in FLML. Didn't look amused. I told him that money tends to flow from the active to the patient.
Isn't it fascinating that all these arm-chair CEOs (buy-side analysts and their cocky PMs) think that they know more than the folks who actually run this company? You buy side hacks are a hilarious bunch of #$%$ who are losing big time this morning on your consensus short.
Once patients discover the superior aspects of the Omnipod, there will be a tipping point where this company will sustain a flood of orders irrespective of the Dr. / reimbursement ecosystem.
My proprietary DCF model provides a present value of $55. My contacts assure me that there are a number of large deals in the sales funnel which will further attract institutional money to this stock. My top pick.
You can't properly value a stock by slapping a P/E multiple on one year forward earnings. This is a very crude and unsophisticated valuation method and provides very little guidance. The P/E tool continues to be peddled by the brokers because it's simple and lazy and the buy side puts up with the charade. Anyway, to illustrate my point - what if SSYS decided to make three $200 million acquisitions over the next three years (a capital investment) rather than spending $600 million directly in the business (an expense on the Income Statement)? In the first example, you would have a higher EPS but would be out $600 million on the balance sheet. In the second scenario, your near-term EPS would be lower, but would earn a much higher EPS in out years assuming that the company earns a reasonable return on invested capital. Which company is better off three years from now? Hint: most acquisitions (even so called accretive ones) fail to earn the cost of capital over the long term. (see 3D Systems). Bottom line: Investors prefer companies to squander money on acquisitions rather than to invest in organic growth because the former boosts near-term EPS - a measure that is irrelevant to the present value of future cash flow over the life of the company.
We got only 20 minutes of Q&A where a large amount of time was wasted on a history lesson of Flamel and Éclat followed by a tortured lecture on the FDA approval process. Meanwhile no revenue projections or market share numbers were revealed. Anderson deferred to Lisi to address the Sodium Oxybate question: "meeting with FDA by mid-year and hope to eventually file NDA by mid 2017." No mention of partnership discussions.
If I were on the buyside and new to this story I would have been reaching for the nearest defibrillator.
I plan on attending - anyone else here going?
Short interest has declined to 6M shares or 12% of float. The too clever by half hedge funds are losing a lot of money for their clients. Can you hear them squealing?
I love the sound of shorts squealing at the open....