You should care because if you're not on the inside you're on the outside. Or to quote the bartender, you're flying blind. So to repeat, the market already discounted today's earnings report during yesterday's trading session because Flamel had contacted the Suntrust analyst two days ago and divulged the critical details of today's earnings release which he cites in his report dated 7/28. Why did management tip off this analyst two quarters in a row? That is the question my friend...
Yo Golf, read my post again...The results were pre-released yesterday by Suntrust. Why is this hard to understand?
No surprise. Management pre-released the quarterly results two days ago to the Suntrust analyst. The market should have already discounted this report. Going forward, it all about the advancing pipeline and forging partnerships.
Cramer said it was a smart idea that was worth looking into.
How could management wait until two days before earnings for the second quarter in a row to tip off the Suntrust analyst of materially negative, inside information regarding deferred quarterly revenue and increased tax rate, and in doing so, kill the stock's positive momentum? The only answer is that there is a concerted, systemic, shockingly-poor investor relations effort. Somewhere Steve Cohen is ripping the phone out of the wall...
"Law of averages says we should reverse." Not necessarily. Mean reversion occurs only in random events, like red/black frequencies in roulette. Mean reversion will not occur if there is a systemic tendency for skewed results.
The consensus estimate for Q2 revenue going into the print is $65.45M. All the analysts have had ample time and guidance to adjust their estimates to account for deferred revenue. Therefore, if FLML does not beat both the top and bottom line guidance, the stock goes down. Sorry folks, that's how the street works. Once again the SunTrust analyst is Anderson's B--ch who gets the lone heads-up two days before the quarterly CC.
No, not a fair conclusion. The stock price would be much, much higher if it were not for the serial setbacks that tend to occur around the quarterly announcements. These setbacks increase the discount rate experienced investors assign to their valuation models. From a statistical standpoint, it is nearly impossible to disappoint 13 quarters in a row without considerable effort on the part of management.
Dedicated health care and biotech funds will now officially have FLML on their radar. Also, starting next year, this will be seen as a "US" company rather than a small cap French outfit. All good. Somewhere Oscar is weeping...and the wind cries Mary...
Chateau Petrus Pomerol, 2005
100 Wine Spectator
Concentrated, Black Cherry, Mocha, Full-bodied
Wine Spectator - Pomerol, Bordeaux, France- "A sleeping giant. Dark ruby in color, showing aromas of blackberry, and green olive, with a hint of mineral. Full-bodied, with ultrafine tannins and a supercaressing mouthfeel. Coffee, dark chocolate and berry. Chewy yet balanced. Very long in the mouth."
I keep wondering who was behind the huge volume of shares traded in recent weeks, particularly the 6M shares on June 9th. Certainly a lot of day traders piled-on and are now exiting the stock in a slow drip, but presumably, someone was buying in size before expected good news.
We may or may not have already met with the FDA, and to be is not to be, but that is not the question at hand, we said that we may say something if that something were to be, but we have said nothing, so the vast nothingness implies that we are to move forward, unless we say otherwise. Now go forth my friends and buy thee the stock!
"You should either assume that that meeting will take place or has already taken place. If anything had occurred that had make us change our expectations of starting that phase 3 trial in the fourth quarter we would have said something and we have said nothing"
Why not say instead, "we met with the FDA this past week and the discussion was extremely productive so we plan to move ahead confidently in initiating the phase 3 trial in the fourth quarter"
The longer JAZZ waits, the higher the price goes, especially now that FLML management has had a positive meeting with the FDA this month and plans to start a PH 3 study
The bottom-up EPS for 2016 is $1.40 and the implied top down EPS is $1.60 based on a technical price objective of $32.50 and a conservative 20X P/E.
Relax, they will move to plan B with a large share repurchase and a steady stream of bolt-on acquisitions within the regional markets to increase share and pricing power. I generally don't like buying from private equity guys anyway since there is always a screw somewhere.