I keep wondering who was behind the huge volume of shares traded in recent weeks, particularly the 6M shares on June 9th. Certainly a lot of day traders piled-on and are now exiting the stock in a slow drip, but presumably, someone was buying in size before expected good news.
We may or may not have already met with the FDA, and to be is not to be, but that is not the question at hand, we said that we may say something if that something were to be, but we have said nothing, so the vast nothingness implies that we are to move forward, unless we say otherwise. Now go forth my friends and buy thee the stock!
"You should either assume that that meeting will take place or has already taken place. If anything had occurred that had make us change our expectations of starting that phase 3 trial in the fourth quarter we would have said something and we have said nothing"
Why not say instead, "we met with the FDA this past week and the discussion was extremely productive so we plan to move ahead confidently in initiating the phase 3 trial in the fourth quarter"
The longer JAZZ waits, the higher the price goes, especially now that FLML management has had a positive meeting with the FDA this month and plans to start a PH 3 study
The bottom-up EPS for 2016 is $1.40 and the implied top down EPS is $1.60 based on a technical price objective of $32.50 and a conservative 20X P/E.
Relax, they will move to plan B with a large share repurchase and a steady stream of bolt-on acquisitions within the regional markets to increase share and pricing power. I generally don't like buying from private equity guys anyway since there is always a screw somewhere.
Origin has exclusive licenses on high-value GT / BT stacked GMO traits that can be sub-licensed to global seed companies in North America and beyond. Has meetings scheduled this week for above.
Company believes it can double revenue and profit over the next five years just on its traditional, hybrid seed business alone. Add in global license royalties and potential Chinese GMO approvals, the addressable market is much bigger.
Company is contemplating floating local A shares to unlock substantial value of current business.
China wants to introduce GMO corn using local technology, providing SEED with first mover advantage of at least 10 years.
The potential for 100 million RMB in EBITDA by 2016 supports a minimum value of $7 per share and $28 longer term, especially if biotech traits are commercially approved within the next three years. Wow, no wonder the stock has been ramping on huge volume!
The Leerink 5 year earnings model estimates that the 2020 EPS will be $4.21. A forward multiple of 20X gives us a four year price target of $84.
Investors are no longer interested in the flawed, egg-on-their-face, sell-side analysts who were late to the story and lost people a lot of money getting them in at the top. Forget the articles, analyst opinions and press releases. This management, which has lost all credibility due to their abrupt and dramatic change in tone and guidance post a secondary offering above $90 a share, has to now put up the numbers. This stock could languish for years folks.
You forgot to mention another notable indicator - Soula was in attendance which suggests that he is still a shareholder. Also, Anderson commented that he now lives in St. Louis and has been state side the last week and a half.
The quarterly 13F filings showing investment manager positions in a given stock are generally not reported until at least 45 days after the quarter end. So yes, it is old stuff, but not made publicly available until recently.
Investor Name % O/S Pos Pos Chg % Pos Chg Filing Date Filing Type
Broadfin Capital, L.L.C. 11.73 4,719,959 -433,231 -8.41 31-Mar-15 13F
Deerfield Management Company, L.P. 10.12 4,072,809 -1,185,666 -22.55 31-Mar-15 13F
Janus Capital Management LLC 7.41 2,982,852 2,982,852 100 31-Mar-15 13F
Millennium Management LLC 4.55 1,831,860 736,721 67.27 31-Mar-15 13F
Kennedy Capital Management, Inc. 3.59 1,444,030 236,620 19.6 31-Mar-15 13F
T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc. 2.81 1,131,500 3,500 0.31 31-Mar-15 13F
Deutsche Investment Management Americas, Inc. 2.8 1,128,958 1,128,958 100 31-Mar-15 13F
The Boston Company Asset Management, LLC 2.54 1,020,546 1,020,546 100 31-Mar-15 13F
Sarissa Capital Management, L.P. 2.17 875,000 875,000 100 31-Mar-15 13F
Jennison Associates LLC 1.77 713,770 2,263 0.32 31-Mar-15 13F
Point72 Asset Management, L.P. 0.88 355,800 355,800 100 31-Mar-15 13F
Also notable is that both Deerfield and Broadfin trimmed their positions by a total of 1.5M shares, but interestingly, Point 72 (SAC) initiated a position of 356K shares - a firm which generally does not get involved with companies after simply reading an analyst's report if you know what I mean..