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Momenta Pharmaceuticals Inc. Message Board

rainytrance 29 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 3, 2013 9:45 PM Member since: Apr 4, 2007
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  • rainytrance by rainytrance Sep 3, 2013 9:45 PM Flag

    Does anybody believe the FDA will approve the copaxane ANDA in 2013?

  • rainytrance by rainytrance Sep 3, 2013 9:42 PM Flag

    Is cree a buy out for somebody? Heard people chatting about it today and I don't think its reasonable but thought I'd post and see what people thought.

  • Reply to

    Hopeless until 2014

    by islb3 Aug 2, 2013 2:52 PM
    rainytrance rainytrance Aug 5, 2013 9:26 PM Flag

    You might be right, but then again we can't discount the implication of an FDA approval for MNTA;s ANDA of copaxane which, good or bad, should certainly come before the year ends. This will move the stock upward imo.
    While it might be true that there is no givens regarding sales in 2014, Id hardly bet against Navartus/Sandoz if the FDA does give them approval.
    Furthmore I don't believe that Teva's effort to preserve their revenue stream by creating a 3x a week dose vs a daily dose will be able to materialize the preservation of their revenue they way they intend it to. net net.. upside from here even if we see a little pullback still.

  • Up .50 out of the gate and closed down .13 at the end of the day, Any insights from anybody?

  • Reply to

    MNTA nearly 52 week high...

    by takeovertargetman Jun 28, 2013 10:29 AM
    rainytrance rainytrance Jun 28, 2013 10:30 PM Flag

    we can;t discount the implications of the July to September court decision that is due regarding their patent infringement and their opportunity to enter the market with product in 2014 vs 2015.

    That possibility has huge implications and should contribute to a justified run up in stock price, I believe there is a justifiable 25% upside from here as we approach that milestone. The stock should trade at 19 here.

  • rainytrance by rainytrance Feb 18, 2013 1:47 PM Flag

    1. If there is a buyout here my guess is that its not at a premium but that the stock goes up based on synergies in production and distribution

    2. Earnings what ever they are, should be significantly improved if they fixed the root cause of damaged goods in new market transportation. Very easy fix if they did it.

    3. Good management in this Company. We continue to see prudent actions by this company in terms of growth and in terms of dealing with market place issues and production issues. Cause to have faith.

  • Curious if anybody has got wind of this rumor and can comment?

    In light of the fiscal cliff many companies are considering a special div while taxes are favorable. It seems like this could be a good strategy for MNST.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    froy99...

    by megbidus Feb 3, 2012 6:14 PM
    rainytrance rainytrance Feb 3, 2012 10:07 PM Flag

    I think that the next significant milestone has to surround the Amphastar /Watson (WPI) case, In the moment Amphastar is cleared to sell a competitor to Lovenox but it doesn't seem like its done that as the patent infringement case is pending. Risky for Watson Amphastar to launch with the looming decision still. This is the next milestone to dramatically affect the pps. At a minimum this posture by Amphastar allows for some additional income from sales and we should listen for those details with earnings Feb 9th. Certainly Momenta will highlight the significance of the court case in the call.

    regarding Copaxone - we can be hopeful for an approval and the projected impact that will have on the income statement for MNTA and its pps......still i believe the truth is that the current patents on this drug are held by Biogen (BIIB) and are in affect through 2014.

  • Reply to

    MNTA Going into S & P...

    by MoMan75 Jan 27, 2012 7:57 PM
    rainytrance rainytrance Jan 29, 2012 3:20 PM Flag

    Several thoughts:
    1- SP600: if its a must buy, how many funds with SP600 objectives exist? I don't expect this to be material in terms of purchasing shares even with MNTA's relatively small float.

    2: Stay judgement: The lifting of the injunction is a legal maneuver it seems, and the IR platform still legitimate.

    3.Earnings: What's the sentiment?

    Beyond the immediate issues, how is the pipeline and testing progressing?

  • rainytrance by rainytrance May 15, 2011 10:11 AM Flag

    Why isn't AVNR a buy out? I'm not sure why a big pharm Co doesn't swallow this up? Approved by FDA, starting its launch and with a real $$$ benefit if a big company uses its sales network to expidite the reveneue generating capability. At this pps wouldn't that be an acretive deal for somebody?

  • rainytrance by rainytrance Mar 21, 2011 7:33 PM Flag

    AMT has 33,319 towers. 4,498 in Latin America, 7600 in India. Nearly 37% non American towers.

    The technology requirement regardless of the number of service providers is trending towards 3g and 4g phones so tracking the proliferation of smart phones is a critical variable in terms of why there is so much value in this stock. The contracts that are held with carriers are five year term. The very innovative technologies on the market are not ready to compete for some time to be sure.

    The balance sheet is solid, and there are economies of scale to be realized with their growth through acquisition strategies, 7-10 thousand additional towers in India alone.
    On top of which the intention of the company is to convert to a REIT structure and create value from that as well.

    I can't help believe that this is a buy on the dip opportunity and the implications of the Att t-mobile impact on the American tellecom industry has been over reacted to in the context of the stock value - that even with a high P/e. Full disclosure I'm long 200 shares.... which is about my station in life not my conviction or due dilligence.

  • Without any activity on the FDA front we will still see this stock run up nicely as we approach the Feb 7th earnings announcement and the first completed quarter without any one time charges.

  • "The market is currently pricing MNTA based solely on m-enox and the Teva overhang. I'd like to hear some speculation on the broader future potential of MNTA outside of the programs that have already been announced. Specifically what drugs coming off patent in the next 5 years might be logical targets for MNTA's proprietary reverse engineering technology. If possible include the patent sunset date and the current sales information.

    I think NVS mentioned in one of the past investor day conferences that they had several targets in development. When I get some time I'll see if I can track down any specific Sandoz information on projects that might be a logical fit for MNTA." Invstors Hub

  • While certainly the speculation on another generic to compete with lovenox looms, each day that goes by without another approval represents revenue for MNTA. Does anybody have an estimate of that daily revenue?

    This stock belongs in the low 20's.

  • rainytrance rainytrance Aug 12, 2010 9:06 AM Flag

    you know I did notice the market yesterday. I was really wondering why the stock had been so dramatically driven down since its approval and high of nearly 26

  • rainytrance rainytrance Aug 12, 2010 9:05 AM Flag

    lol Not like a cow at all actually, and not running with the heard at all either.

  • interested in opinions & facts

  • Reply to

    Level Playing Field?

    by fjdemetrius Aug 8, 2010 3:12 PM
    rainytrance rainytrance Aug 8, 2010 9:31 PM Flag

    Dear Mr. Metaphor -

    I agree with your assessment. It seems very unlikely that TEVA will be approved with its like generic here. MNTA remains a very good hold in the portfolio despite its volatile swings. There are more positive things in store for MNTA and for the long investors it will continue to pay off.

    Now that MNTA has pulled off its highs I am all for accumulating.

  • Reply to

    Gilenia/NVS and State of MNTA

    by handy_dandy_1 Jun 13, 2010 1:12 PM
    rainytrance rainytrance Jun 13, 2010 5:41 PM Flag

    I have to do a little research before I comment on the details of Novartis and Gilenia. It seems to me however, that Lovenox, and Copaxane regardless of the industry landscape but not ecxluding the market size for both those generics, remains a very compelling case for investors who are long like I am. (full disclosure)

    Outstanding shares alone {44.9m, 37.7m float} for Momenta make approval, regardlers of the industry conditions, a force to the upside for what I continue to believe is a saavy management team.

    Additionally the FDA is well aware of the positive implications of generics amidst rising health care costs and the trial data so far is at least to the long investors favor still IMO.

    Lovenox targets a $4b market even if you capture 15% of that market revenue at a conservative profit margin of lets say 17% in year one alone, that bumps the stock $10-15. IMO You can do the same math with Copaxne

  • Reply to

    FDA Approval Question

    by rainytrance May 29, 2010 10:57 AM
    rainytrance rainytrance Jun 2, 2010 10:31 PM Flag

    Interesting, dynamic set of responses. Thanks to all. I'd like to share the following thought. I'm long in the vein of full disclosure and unassociated witht the firm.
    First I think the scientific and business acumen in the company is superb. They have good product, a good pipeline - staying power as a contributing force and the financials to support it still.
    Second, technicals also support well defined resistence levels and support making it attractive for the active trader; short or long.
    Third - the landscape of the indsutry itself is ripe with good reason for generics to mitigate rising health care costs.

    My sentiment is that any sort of positive combination of news regarding the fDA's pending decision, even if its shared success, will result in upside to the investor with a cost basis of 15 or lower. Its a worth while hold and a great equity position to write options against.

MNTA
14.67+0.57(+4.04%)Mar 5 4:00 PMEST

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