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American Railcar Industries, Inc. Message Board

rak5555 1281 posts  |  Last Activity: 19 hours ago Member since: Feb 7, 1999
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  • Interesting new institution ownership. Probably explains the small pop today.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    I'm out now -

    by mgs1066 Feb 8, 2016 12:12 PM
    rak5555 rak5555 Feb 9, 2016 7:39 PM Flag

    After I posted my question, I realized the insiders would be disincented to purchase shares at this time becasue we are likely in the window during which option grants are priced. They don't want the pps to increase until after they are awared stock and options.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    I'm out now -

    by mgs1066 Feb 8, 2016 12:12 PM
    rak5555 rak5555 Feb 9, 2016 4:31 PM Flag

    I'm curious whether tnxp is inside a "lockout period" thus preventing insiders from purchasing shares.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • rak5555 rak5555 Jan 30, 2016 9:50 AM Flag

    Is this still your belief, or has anything been announced that would cause you to adjust this estimate?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Outlook

    by johnsonstarfish_0212 Jan 28, 2016 3:00 PM
    rak5555 rak5555 Jan 30, 2016 9:44 AM Flag

    I compared tnxp (down 37% YTD) to the four other bios I own and none are down like tnxp. But, I concede that is a poor sample size so I compared to Bio ETFs. Most of the large ones are not down as much as tnxp (e.g. fidelity biotech advisory fund down 27%) but close. What funds do you look at for comparison?

    I do take some comfort that tnxp is generally following the sector, and more important, I believe tnxp has more upside than the overall sector given the 3 upcoming trial releases.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Outlook

    by johnsonstarfish_0212 Jan 28, 2016 3:00 PM
    rak5555 rak5555 Jan 29, 2016 9:45 AM Flag

    What I think may have happened - lets assume you are a portfolio manager with a bio portfolio. You've been instructed to reduce your portfolio by 20% (becasue bio is out of favor at this time). As you are selecting the holdings you will sell, you notice that the tnxp CFO has resigned, Hmmm, seems like good excuse to lighten up on tnxp. Only time (and information leakes) will tell if this was an ominous warning or not.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Analysis

    by mike_bagge Jan 15, 2016 4:44 PM
    rak5555 rak5555 Jan 17, 2016 9:56 AM Flag

    "This board will survive though." Sorry, but all I could think of was cockroaches when I read this.

    Buying shares of PQ is like buying options - you are betting that NG prices will rise before PQ runs out of $. I am out and not getting back in.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • rak5555 rak5555 Jan 12, 2016 2:40 PM Flag

    I'm a little relieved that Gershell is staying on as a consultant (for a while). At the very least, that implies he was not terminated for cause. Best case is he needed time in as consultant to cash out on options vesting.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    UP 8% BOOOM

    by biotesticle2014 Dec 29, 2015 2:20 PM
    rak5555 rak5555 Dec 29, 2015 2:49 PM Flag

    Congrats on your trade. I was going to sell trading shares when it went over 7.30 but decided to sell covered calls instead. February $7.50s for 1.50. We'll see.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    BIG BUYER LATE IN DAY AT 7.3 !!!

    by biotesticle2014 Dec 28, 2015 5:24 PM
    rak5555 rak5555 Dec 29, 2015 11:25 AM Flag

    I wonder if in a few days we will learn it was another insider buy.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    A little TA

    by gizmo_puppy95 Dec 22, 2015 10:17 PM
    rak5555 rak5555 Dec 26, 2015 10:45 AM Flag

    Normally, there might be tax loss selling on a stock with the price history of tnxp; however, anyone sophisticated enough to know how to execute a tax strategy is also going to be aware of wash sale rules that would prohibit them from purchasing tnxp for 30 days following the tax loss sale. With tnxp, the 30 day lock out period would overlap the release of tension headache trials in January. Due to this timing, most if not all tax loss selling should have already occured in late November and early December.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    PTSD trial fully enrolled!!

    by algonquin007 Dec 23, 2015 11:38 AM
    rak5555 rak5555 Dec 24, 2015 12:55 PM Flag

    Actually, I have more confidence in PTSD and therefore almost wish we didn't have the headache trials in January.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    IP for TNX-201?

    by modajon Dec 20, 2015 10:47 AM
    rak5555 rak5555 Dec 22, 2015 5:21 PM Flag

    Patents have been filed. Suggest you review prior investor presentations for more info on IP.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Bought in today

    by prospern23 Dec 18, 2015 4:49 PM
    rak5555 rak5555 Dec 19, 2015 6:05 PM Flag

    Anything can happen in such a thinly traded stock, especially this time of year when trading volumes are low. Even if TNXP goes downnext few days, it should recover nicely going into Q1 trial results.

    I also purchased 500 shares - not because I wanted to but because they got put to me. I'm not upset since my put adjusted purchase price is $6.31.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • rak5555 rak5555 Dec 16, 2015 9:32 AM Flag

    Seems reasonable.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • For those that don't know, yesterday's spike was more than likely caused by a buy recommendation from a private investor with a huge internet following. The following is an excerpt from his web site:

    This company was one of my most enjoyable trades in 2015 and I believe that 2016 will be a paramount year for this company. The company will be releasing data for three clinical trials, starting in early 2016 and continuing through the third quarter. Since last investing in this company, institutions have increased their positions, insiders have continued to purchase a large number of shares on the open market, and clinical development activities have advanced as scheduled. Recently, collaborations have been established with the Department of Defense that not only validate the company’s science but will help increase the rate of enrollment for their clinical trial in Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder. Additionally, development through the FDA’s 505(b)(2) pathway will expedite time to market. The company’s clinical development activities address markets measured in excess of $2 billion while its market cap is a mere 1/20th of this value. I believe this company presents as an excellent short and long term investment with the data releases in 2016 acting as an inflection point for shareholders.

    Personal Trading Strategy for this Pick: In the near future, the company will be releasing data from one of their clinical programs and data from their other clinical programs will be released in the second and third quarter. There is no indication that this data will be presented at a conference and I believe it will be disclosed via press releases. Due to this unknown catalyst date and dependent upon the subsequent trading action, I may be holding some of my position through the first data release. If data is positive, I will retain a core position that I will trade around throughout the year. If clinical results are positive, I anticipate the share price will appreciate signifi

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • rak5555 by rak5555 Aug 20, 2015 6:35 PM Flag

    Director Mario Ernest purchased 6000 more shares today.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    2Q call Tuesday morning August 4

    by dormie18 Jul 14, 2015 4:48 PM
    rak5555 rak5555 Jul 20, 2015 6:50 PM Flag

    For better or worse, PQ is a play on NG prices. At least PQ has taken measures to survive the current historical low natural gas prices. Take a look at this 10 year price chart and you'll see that current prices are lower than any other time except a few brief months in 2012. http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/natural-gas.aspx?timeframe=10y

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    2Q call Tuesday morning August 4

    by dormie18 Jul 14, 2015 4:48 PM
    rak5555 rak5555 Jul 15, 2015 9:12 AM Flag

    In the meantime NG prices starting to firm up.

  • Reply to

    Finally - Good News on Thuner Bay

    by rak5555 Jul 13, 2015 4:33 PM
    rak5555 rak5555 Jul 13, 2015 4:34 PM Flag

    Hmm. either one of my letters oesn't type or I'm a umbass.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

ARII
41.32-0.80(-1.90%)Feb 10 4:00 PMEST