I only responded to you because you are saying "in the last two quarters"
Since we are in quarter 4, the last two quarters would be quarter 2 and quarter 3 (not quarter 1 & 2)
Quarter 3- their earnings did not meet the dividend
Anyway- let's hope for better times next year!
You may want to look at Q3 earnings (37 cents) and rethink your post.
If the sales slip, as well as net prices (BIG IF), then earnings will not cover the dividend.
Of course, dividends are paid out of cash flow, and as CAPEX winds down, cash availability will increase.
Go back in history and look at the last Gov't shutdown.
It sure did move UVXY.
Look at Paul Ryan's comments today regarding using Congress budget power.
Threatening a possible Gov't shutdown next month????
Yahoo website shows 834.65 million shares outstanding
Quarterly dividend is 38 cents
Cash flow needed is 317.17 million
earnings barely covering the dividend.
Not a good situation.
Cut in production in Q4 of 500,000 mmt and early closing of the NB mine.
I agree with you, but the key question is "When will that be"?
I still think there are too many macro headwinds to initiate a new position now.
However, I am now watching this stock closely, along with all the headwinds, to see when I should renter my position.
When I made this comment on September 22, POT was trading for about $22-$23 a share.
I knew there would be a bump in the stock once they dropped the bid, but thought we would be at least $23.50-$24
We are currently below that and POT dropped yesterday on a flat market. Could the initial bump be working itself out of the stock and all the macro headwinds starting to slowly drop the stock again?
Not sure, but time will tell.
He had that position before the 21st also (had it for a few weeks). He was shorting the shares.
Look at Aug 20 close ($31).
Double in two days (Aug 24th opened at $68), caused the account to go into the negative before he, or the broker could act on the account.
The guy was a very heavy trader(generated commissions of $@)))))PL, us over a 3 year period and he did have a sizable short position in UVXY during August.
He still had this position on Friday August 21st.
Monday morning opened up (August 24th) and UVXY doubled in price (check Yahoo's prices). He was not able to close out the position before his account went into the negative.
He ended up covering the negative balance with a sizable inheritance he just received 9just about wiped out the full inheritance)
They are not going after his house. However, he did inherit a sizable amount of money that he ended up cashing most of it in to pay the broker back.
I agree with you if:
1. You are willing to hold for a few years
2. You do not mind if the price drops further
3. For POT, you have to be aware of their bid on K & S and how it may affect their financials
I met him through the UVXY message board and the broker does have the authority to go and attach your personal assets, when your brokerage account goes into negative (which is what happened to him)
I know one guy who did a naked short on UVXY (before the jump up about a month ago), lost in excess of 100% of his account and the broker is now going after his personal assets.
I agree with all your points in your first paragraph and have been wondering why POT doesn't use it's Piccadilly mine to get market share in Europe.
If I remember correctly, this mine is not part of Canpotex so POT can just sell 100% of its production (Europe and South America)
Drive the high cost of the K & S mine to bleed by itself and ultimately force it out of existence.