Yes, every Monitise investor needs to read that to understand the implications of the Monitise cloud platform.
While mobile payment has gotten significant headlines and attention, mobile banking and mobile payment systems serve 2 separate functions for the consumer. Even Apple Pay itself has not come close to projected growth rates at this point.
What a dismal 18 months. Worse performance than any bulls or bears had expected. What went wrong and what questions remain? I remain invested. Cooperman has left along with Visa and Visa EU. Norges has unloaded at least half its shares. Bill Miler remains a share holder of more than 3%. Where is our hope? What break do we need? Do we stand a chance?
The two primary reasons this story has thus far failed is that 1) Consumers are not jumping on using mobile money initiatives nearly at rates expected and 2) Retailers and banks have been slow to invest in these initiatives. Additionally some larger deep pocket banks have taken initiative in-house and competition from other mobile banking and money providers. Will 1 and 2 trajectory change and if so how long will it take? Monitise spent like crazy in 2012-2014 based on projected demand that never came through. Now going in reverse. How is Monitise 2.0 Platform performance-wise? Is Mastercard working on any global initiatives with Monitise? Will Telefonica bear any fruit? $100 million and burning cash - Will this be an Akamai, Netflix, Sirius or Priceline which came close to oblivion or will it be one of numerous post-internet bubble forgotten names? They deliver something valuable and do it well. Now will they get the big break of a global partner running with them because of their innovation? Will 100s of smaller and mid-size banks line up like Baraka? As early players they have struggled with how to make mobile banking/mobile money profitable. Their emphasis was on gaining clients/subs, not enough regard for profitability as cash was coming easy. They have learned the hard way the economics of making mobile banking profitable - the question is - did they learn this too late??
I would not rely on a Barclays price target. At this point we need to see EBITDA positive in June and cash flow + 6 months after that. It means continued continued focus on higher margin operations. They spent like crazy in too many directions and due to much less aggressive client deployment and customer conversion took the hits. They have delivered high quality products. Only a matter of time when banks will be differentiated by their mobile products and the mobile platform becomes more critical for more service businesses.
For every share I bought at 90 cents, 70 cents and 50 cents I bought more than 10 shares at 20 cents, 10 cents and 4 cents. You can do the math. I am not claiming this will be $1.00 next year. I am not claiming they have executed well. They have gone through incredible change in 1 year- some positive and some negative. Some by choice and other not. It is still well-positioned with large contracts/clients of unclear potential. I am not selling here or at double this price. I knew this was gonna take years to play out, but was a year too early. Do your due diligence.
Lots of excitement for a move from 4 cents to 5 cents. Keep things in perspective. We are shooting for EBIDTA positive in a few months and hopefully cash flow positive in less than 18 months. It's about our clients deploying the technology and user conversion. About new contracts for the cloud platform and increased functionality. Mobile money is young and no one has yet figured out how to make significant money off it yet. Agree that this gap up may be about fear of missing the bottom that some have projected is happening with the largest holders completing their exit out of frustration and for PR purposes. If I were Cooperman I would not want to have to discuss Monitise and my way off projections either..I would want it off my books. Too many changes/factors to predict financial performance accurately but as the dust settles hopefully we are better positioned than ever to take part in the mobile money evolution with a higher operating margin model. A buyer can be eyeing this, but the rumor has proven false for over 6 months. At $100 million market cap moves can be violent with small shifts in sentiment. Trading like a small cap pharma... Now averaged at a little over 20 cents and waiting patiently.
Netflix and SiriusvXM.
-Both ran out of cash.
-Got to valuations of 1% of where they are today and most wrote them off.
-Potential buyers walked away.
-Subscription model then thrived
Tough rode but innovation,partnerships and some luck and timing can take them far.
I was astounded by the lack of progress projected. The cost cutting efforts were effective thus far. How can Monitise project no revenue growth at this point for the current year?? This implies the platform is not being received well and that is where their bets were placed. Thus Norges is dumping. The only reason to buy here is pure speculation about potential takeover by some larger player who can take the technology and run with it. Might as well buy a lottery ticket.
The whole market cap is $95 million. Their recent acquisitions were for more than 2 times that value. This is destruction of value on the order of AOL...
Buse is a loss. But I expected over 10% revenue growth outlook. At this point in this model change and in this space you can't last independently without revenue growth.
Horrible day. Big losses for me. Progress is much slower than I anticipated.
I believe it will survive and may get picked up for very cheap. It needs some contracts from left field at this point. Whether I ever make my money back is questionable.
Tough day but more important things in life than money and I try to keep things in perspective. Relentless drop I believe was Cooperman deciding for complete exit. Would not be surprised to find out that he sold 80 million shares today.
I think they were overly optimistic as many of us were. As were analysts and hedge funds. Sometimes the market punishes excessively. Banks have not pushed their mobile capabilities aggressively but that will change as consumers are expecting it. I feel that the long term story is not over. If they grow registered users over the next 6 months at least at the rate of last year (20% annually) I stick around and the stock will reward. Otherwise I am out.
Now that Visa and Visa EU are more that 50% out would be great time for company to announce approval to buy back $20 million. Would buy back all the shares they can get under 10 pence. May help expedite the exit of those who want out and would be a huge vote of confidence from leaderships. Feel free to share with IR.
Cooperman or not. Visa or not. We need registered user growth. We need current users to become paying. We need to remain innovative and ahead of the curve. We need to leverage our relationship (especially IBM) to further enhance the edge and cost savings we deliver to banks.
100 million registered users will get us to a $1 share price. This will take several years and with execution is very possible.