Last I checked, $6.3 (~today's price) / 9 dividends = .70 per dividend. You think it will average 70 cents per quarter? It's not even going to earn $.70 per quarter. And after all the management feels, you'll be lucky to see $.55 from this point on... non on average... at the peak. So every penny you spend above $5.50, you are pretty much putting in the garbage. Yes, you are doing it over 9 quarters... not right away. And I am sure YOU will be the lucky one who sees everyone else as the sucker at the table. YOU will get out at just the right time. Because, unlike all the other chomps who trade, you always sell at the top and and buy at the bottom. It's why you buying in the middle of the dividend cycle. Because you are the opportunist who never loses. Moving on.
The only reason this stock goes up is because shorts are afraid of getting burned and cover when it drops. But the number of shares shorted compared to the tiny volume of the stock makes it a near guarantee that you won't forced to cover your short position. Obviously, the stock is not worth the price it's trading. It will go down to 0 (yes, ZERO) in 9 quarters. And 9 dividends have no way to recoup the costs of the current share price. I am short and good luck with all the sissy fits that the longs throw around here.
Even assuming that the highest price will be before the div day, this assumption combined with all the short squeeze shows that the "contrarian" opinion is held by the MAJORITY at this point. There is no way that the 9 remaining distributions will average $.71 (which is what he stock is priced at right now). So the stock is, at least slightly, overpriced. The hope that the price will jump before the div date higher than it is today might be consensus rather than contrarian at this point. And this herd will be bitterly disappointed.
Mostly my research shows that people who try to divert my attention from the subjects I bring up are the people who don't have an argument. The market has already prices in both the ex-div day and the expiration of the trust. The trust is not traded heavily enough to blame irrational investors for such a premium over currently-anticipated commodity prices. Which means the trust either has more investment income than is accounted for by simple arithmetic or it is being used as a hedge against possible spike in future prices of underlying commodities.
The war with Iran is not a possibility. Iran is Russia's lap dog. Russia likes to create perception of instability to drive commodity prices up so they sponsor noise around the world (like Iran). But they are not into civilization destroying business. They just want to be paid more for the stuff they dig up.
His numbers put the total payout before expiration of the trust at around $4.35. But that seems at least $1 bellow the current market price of the stock. There has to be something he is not account for. Any ideas?