Thanks, I'll check out CRMD. Yes, I have a very small position in AVXL.
Despite the biotech implosion going on for over a year now, overall I am still well in the green, mostly due to my gains last year in AVXL. But I've given back a significant chunk of those gains in catastrophes like MRNS, IDRA, and a couple of others. Like practically everyone else, I should have stayed on the sidelines in 2016.
Hey daw. You're probably right. But regarding SAGE's PPD trial, women have been using progesterone-like supplements (off label, available online and in health food stores) with many reports of success. So maybe SAGE's PPD trial has a chance.
Hey Jr... Good move getting out of that one. I sure thought MRNS was a better bet than GALE (at least it has a well-known MOA, but not good enough, obviously).
Anyway, watch AVXL, retailers are running it up like they did with GALE, for interim results coming in July.
I'm laying low now, as I've lost too much money this year to gamble any more on binary events.
Well, Ed, you're right about that. Our policies in the Middle East have been terrible (Iraq war, then abandoning the region, support of Arab "springs" which overthrew stable governments, leading to the birth of ISIS and then the refugee problem, the Iran nuclear deal, etc.).
(As for Israel, perhaps in the long term our incompetence has been a blessing in disguise. Their enemies are in disarray. And very slowly Israel been decreasing their dependence on the U.S. alone by increasing ties with Russia and India. Probably a good move for them in the long term.)
A currency war may not necessarily cause a collapse in the US stock market. If the dollar gets significantly devalued, the stock market could in fact rise (of course, we still lose because it the stock price will be in devalued dollars). Gold could explode up 5X, but U.S. stock market could still slowly rise at the same time.
K thanks. Secondary was met, but still disappointed that the researchers weren't impressed enough to grade any improvement in CGI at all. (Minocycline had a CGI-I score only a half point better than baseline, and that trial was hailed as a big success having met the primary endpoint).
Hey, DAW-- If the parents like what they saw, I would think they would reflect that on the CGI grade. I still can't understand how the parents/researchers liked what they saw but didn't grade that improvement on the CGI scale, which is just a subjective grade from 1-10 on the overall picture...
Hey Andre, there is definitely still a shot here. But how could they not have any improvement on CGI? Everyone concluded (family and doctors) that overall they were no better. That's what CGi is.... Even Minocycline did meet that endpoint.
Mixed results, not a bust. But definitely will not get an FDA approval without another trial. With no improvement in the CGI-- clinical global impression-- the FDA will need to be convinced that this drug doesn't just dope them up. Why is it any different than, say, Valium? This is where the presentation on cortical function needs to show that Ganax doesn't decrease cortical function like the Benzos (Valium, etc) do.
What is curious to me is that they didn't halt the stock in the after hours today. I recall many times that when a company announced that results would be released the next morning, the stock was halted the evening before (like CLDN and others). It allows both longs and shorts to adjust their position. Somewhat odd.
Yes, so my guess is positive news. The question is how positive. The primary endpoint is a pretty easy target. Not sure about all the secondary ones.
I hope so .But one could still argue the opposite, that if bad results they need to explain to panicked shareholders that the company will still be in business...
Still 50/50 chance of good news, in my opinion. Maybe mixed/complex results, so they need to explain. If results are poor (which I strongly doubt), they will use this as a rah rah pep talk to convince us that the company is still viable. If the results are great, they could use this conference to discuss their discussions with the FDA and future plans regarding the next step.
I have a half position (sold half of original shares). FX still as a chance. The long delay in results is either really bad (with data mining trying to find anything positive), or really good (less likely, of course, but could mean that they're planning for the next step, with the FDA for example). Chances are definitely less than 50/50.
Negative: Marinus has controlled release of FX results all along, not the researchers. Companies tend to delay announcing bad results (and, conversely, are excited to release great news ASAP)
Positive: They are abandoning Ganax totally for adult seizures, despite announcing that apparently one subset in the Adult Focal trial did very well. If all the other trials are bad, they would have likely said they are studying this subset to design a new, more focused trial with a more select group of adult focal patients. The fact that they didn't do that "maybe" means that they know the orphan trials will be good.
In fact, since Progesterone itself is well known to help symptoms of PPD, I expect SAGE-547 to be positive based on its binding to the Progesterone receptor (which MRNS does not)
There is a slight possibility however that SAGE's drug would work better than Ganax for PPD due to its effect on the Progesterone receptor (Prednisone-like), which Ganax spares. (Ganax therefore has the longer term safety, but SAGE-547 has the short-term "steroid" effect)