I have a half position (sold half of original shares). FX still as a chance. The long delay in results is either really bad (with data mining trying to find anything positive), or really good (less likely, of course, but could mean that they're planning for the next step, with the FDA for example). Chances are definitely less than 50/50.
Negative: Marinus has controlled release of FX results all along, not the researchers. Companies tend to delay announcing bad results (and, conversely, are excited to release great news ASAP)
Positive: They are abandoning Ganax totally for adult seizures, despite announcing that apparently one subset in the Adult Focal trial did very well. If all the other trials are bad, they would have likely said they are studying this subset to design a new, more focused trial with a more select group of adult focal patients. The fact that they didn't do that "maybe" means that they know the orphan trials will be good.
In fact, since Progesterone itself is well known to help symptoms of PPD, I expect SAGE-547 to be positive based on its binding to the Progesterone receptor (which MRNS does not)
There is a slight possibility however that SAGE's drug would work better than Ganax for PPD due to its effect on the Progesterone receptor (Prednisone-like), which Ganax spares. (Ganax therefore has the longer term safety, but SAGE-547 has the short-term "steroid" effect)
Good question. I would have preferred that the primary endpoint in PDCH19 trial were CGI-- global impression-- like the FX trial, with seizure reduction being a secondary endpoint.
It's ironic that the FX trial will likely be the company's big success (my guess only), and it wasn't even their idea or in their plan to begin with!
In terms of FX, I'm confident the primary endpoint will be met. The question marks will be: is a positive response durable?, and to what degree the secondary end points will be met.
In terms of PCDH19, I'm confident in the secondary endpoints. I'm less sure of the primary, which is seizure reduction, after the recently failed adult focal trials...
Perhaps the ray of hope lies in the fact that, thus far, there has been no insider selling from the 4 major large shareholders on the BOD. (Since they are required to disclose within 3 days, none sold on the huge sell off on Monday --nor on Tuesday-- last week.)
Little consolation though.
Regarding IDRA, with their 3 platforms they are one of the few baby bios with the potential to become the next Celgene.... espec if GSO comes to fruition, and of course assuming they can overcome the short term challenges. And I haven't myself given up on MRNS..
Thanks for your opinion, Bio.
True-- but, in general, real money is often made when you buy a stock when the price is at rock bottom, dormant, and in an out-of-favor sector. And then you have to the patience to wait it out. Holding biotechs now is like holding the gold miner stocks the last few years. Finally, its time has come. The same will happen here. Don't know how long.
I'm in both 50/50. It's been a bad week for me!
That being said, both are similar in that they have the "cure" trying to find the right disease to treat.
MRNS is due for a major bounce in the next 2-3 weeks, so it's a good bet. But there is a risk-- if both remaining binary events fail-- over the next month perhaps-- then it's lights out. But it could also be up 400%.
Both are dirt cheap right now. If you wanna buy and hold, IDRA is the one.
There is so much behind the scenes we'll never know about. It can rise into the $2's and settle there on no apparent news at all, for example.
Hang in there, tech.. Ganax keeps knocking at the door, falling short. I am confident about the FX trial, though.
Minocycline minimally met the primary endpoint with only a very little effect. I expect Ganax to exceed that.
Perhaps most didn't, but I knew it, and have alluded to it before (both the failed PTSD trial and the Infantile Spasm trial)
Hard to say, Bio... read their p.r. (fluff?) on initial observations of the PDCH trial last October. Helped by being open-label, with no placebo, it has a chance to succeed.