I've said it many times. Retail owns too many shares, and the stock won't run until the institutions and their MM's get all the shares that they want. I don't know if they are there yet or if the company is ready yet to make big announcements. But when it happens we'll go fast, I agree.
It doesn't have to be public knowledge. There are general statistics on margin, based on averages. I don't actually know if they have access to information ( maybe from some of the more crooked brokerage houses, like Schwab, who are in bed with the MM's).
Either way, it's just a hunch.
MGM is straight up.
Lube, I have a funny feeling about what's gonna happen soon. Hear me out. I may be way off base here. Retailers don't own extra shares of Idera on margin now because the share price is below the $3 threshold, purposely dropped there to shake out those shares from retailers. (Including myself, who, at times, have bought more Idera shares with margin when times were good). And my guess is that a lot of people will again plan to load up on shares in their margin accounts when Idera gets past $3. But here's the kicker: we won't creep up past $3 this time. Instead, we'll gap up big one morning to open between $4-$6. That's right, we'd close the day before at $2.95 and open up the next morning at $5. So if retailers want to buy more shares on margin, they're gonna have to pay dearly for them.
What do you think of that? lol!!
Hey MGM...mixed feelings here. I've learned to not trust biotech companies that put out P.R.'s all the time (reminds me of the GALE pump), so I like restraint. However, the silence here makes it difficult for us. I honestly think that there is a lot of negotiations and/or difficult decisions being made. Can we really find a partner for 9200? Is 9200 really different enough from 8400 to pursue it fully (or at all?)? Should we initiate a DMD trial soon? Is 2055 our real TLR jewel, and should we prioritize this? Or perhaps we are most excited/optimistic about our GSO candidates to be launched soon, and we need to prioritize GSO OVER our TLR program???
I realize that I'm rambling, but we have a lot of potential pans on the fire here, and a lot of big decisions.
Here's the way I see it.. This company should be at $150 Mil market cap minimum now based on #1) 3-71 and #2) 2-73 epilepsy potential ALONE (let's forget about Alzheimer's--it has off-the-charts potential, but let's assume their trial fails like most others). And then assume that the number of shares doubles by exercised warrants.
So that makes 120K outstanding shares. So at the very least we should get to $1.20 share price, conservatively. I say soon, maybe within months.
Eventually stock prices revert to their true market value. This will too. I cant predict when and what course we'll follow. And positive trial results could put us 5-10x that market cap
Maybe next week. But I think each dip gets bought by stronger hands, who aren't flipping. So the upward momentum will get stronger.
Also, notice the increasing spread between the bid and ask price.. The free float is dwindling. Not many shares are available.
There is always an investor's dilemma when a company has TWO potentially great drugs. Do I hold my shares through trial results of the first drug? If it fails, and the stock price collapses, I then can load up shares cheaply prior to the release of the second drug! Oftentimes, fortunes are made that way.
However, I too am excited about 2-73, so I don't think it'll fail (includes epilepsy as well as Alz).
I personally think that these message boards have created quite a dilemma for MM's and those institutions who were trying to quietly accumulate most of the shares of this company.Having trickled the price down to 15 cents, they had been quietly accumulating shares in a very controlled, quiet manner--to over 54% institutional ownership, which is VERY high for a penny OTC stock (not to mention another 25% owned by insiders). However, with price still in the low $0.20's, the word suddenly got out on numerous message boards, and SUDDENLY retailers gobbled up massive amounts of shares-- with some owning several hundreds of thousands of shares each (500K+ shares, cost $125-$150K or so, could have bought ONE percent of the whole company, excluding warrants).
So here we are. I believe that more institutions want these shares, but they are no longer easily attainable due to the retail buyers/hype that came unexpectedly. So now, it's up to us retailers to NOT give it to them cheaply. There will be a lot of mind games here with the stock price. Just my opinion.
Not likely rising to $3 until next week at the earliest. Still likely a lot of retail biotech holders who need to make their margin call sales. So they'll likely keep the price here until they've gobbled up those cheap shares.
Good decision to buy. So few shares out there. So what if it drops to, say, $0.23 for a bit. It'll run this summer for a great return, even if you don't hold it long term.
Definitely double down if it does. You're not stupid though. The Company and Maxim want the share price in the "dollars" to exercise options. Gives the company a lot of cash and Maxim a nice profit. Even then the price is cheap.
2-73 and 3-71 are both first-in- class drugs with unique mechanisms, both of which might have broad potential in numerous CNS conditions, with multi-billion dollar markets. Lots of ways to potentially make a lot of money here, with very little downside at current market cap IMO.
It may take time though. I've decided not to trade this, since I bought all my shares at age price $0.27. I might take some off the table at, say $0.80 and then when/if it gets to $1.20, but I will let the bulk of it ride. I see a quick buyout offer here at $4-$6 within a year, actually.
This reminds me of ADXS when it was sitting in the $2's last year. A tiny market cap, while all of its competitors in the space had at least 10x the market cap. Must be something wrong, and longs were angry. Well, finally it got recognized "somehow" (on little news), and, within a very short time, it zoomed. It's now over $20.
The market does overlook stocks-- until they don't.
At its current market cap AVXL is a great risk/reward. Yeah, it's OTC, but some have done fine there, like NVIV (which just went to Nasdaq)
I'm just using comparable market caps for many other biotechs at their current stage, combined with market potential
While you've said one must hold for a year for meaningful results and stock appreciation, imo that would likely mean we'll have to wait to jump to $15-20 from our baseline, which I believe will be around $3. We are about 90% undervalued as of now, the fair market price prior to clinical results. We're just getting started on our run there.