Well, I read the article, and there's some good and bad.
First of all, he got the science wrong--GABA is an inhibitory receptor in the brain, and Ganax enhances it as an agonist. (He actually said the opposite, that GABA is overactive and causes seizures, and Ganax blocks it. Wrong).
And to assume that results--whether positive or negative-- would only move the share price 10% is unlikely. Of course, it depends on how good or bad the results are, but strong results for an untreatable condition with a potential billion $ market (and much more if you eventually include broader category of Autism), would move the stock substantially higher, especially since it has so few shares.
Well, I'm not concerned. The Baker Bros had a disastrous first quarter with several huge losses due to trial failures (that doesn't even include last year's XOMA collapse). In fact, with few exceptions (like CPXX), the sector has had a series of failed trials. So my thinking of "capital preservation" was for the Bakers to limit exposure to those high risk companies who have imminent binary events-- and Marinus has 3 of them!! That's all. They still have a biotech portfolio.
In terms of Point72, look at all the biotechs they sold off-- dozens of them. Definitely shedding risk there.
At this moment in time, MRNS is high risk lol!
Correction: it's about a wash. Vanguard bought 90K or so, and Franklin bought 270K, which just about equals what Point72 and Bakers sold. Orbimed stayed the course, didn't see any of their almost million shares.
We went down a little overall. Maybe 150K shares total for the first quarter. Not bad, as many biotechs had more significant institutional selling. As you know, Franklin bought more. However, Point72 sold all their shares (200K or so). But they sold off many-- if not the majority-- of their biotech holdings in the first quarter. And Baker Bros all sold all of their 200K shares in MRNS also. Keep in mind they had a horrible first quarter with several huge biotech losses (CPRX for example), so capital preservation might have had an effect there.
I figure that we 19.5 mil shares, 15-16 mil of which is owned by officers, insider, and institutions combined, with about 4 mil shares on the free float-- a very small amount.
bio-- it sounds like you expect negative FX results. Maybe it's better to have low expections, so any surprise would be to the upside only.
Good post. Makes you wonder if, in the days after FX results, MRNS will rally no matter what they are.
I am still optimistic about FX results, however!
I agree, not putting new money into this sector. That is why, of course, shorts are in control of many biotech stocks now. Nonetheless, I am confident in the few that I own. I do own a regular diversified stock portfolio also.
19.5 million shares, less than 200K of them are being tossed around. The other 19.3 mil shares being held tight. No big deal
The bar is low, Prospern. Some efficacy is enough. SRPT's drug does very little, but will likely get approved.
We don't need a home run. These are very unfortunate kids. Any improvement at all with Ganax will be good news.
The vast majority of trials fail, especially lately. If they short every one of them into results, they will do well at least 80% of the time.
VA-- I've seen the same price action before good results and before bad results. Everyone is nervous. Could have been a nervous retailer or fund manager.
It underperformed the indices but I saw at least a dozen small cap biotechs who had an equally bad week. Not making excuses. No buying pressure at all though.
Not a shake-up. But still only 5-10 K shares needed to drive it down. Likely a retailer selling, but still could be MM driven. Still doubt that there're much institutional selling though.
Yep, Prospern... Thus far we missed the boat. The play has been gold... NUGT, etc. I should have known..
Anyway, things should improve dramatically soon.
Thanks Techs...everyone always looks forward to your posts. I think May too for FX results. Probably next week.