Tough call on a possible bear raid for AVXL this week. The demand is so great that any attempt at a dip might immediately get bought into. The odds are greater for the opposite-- panic buying, maybe even starting right at the opening bell tomorrow.
I will give an off-tangent response here....
From a generational perspective, our nation will get progressively poorer because we are becoming a nation of consumers and paper-pushers. We manufacture less and less things here every generation. We are the world's leader in innovation and ideas (Silicon Valley espec), which has kept us still in the lead. But the nation's standard of living will fall over time. We have too many analysts, consultants, investment counsellors, accountants, lawyers, telemarketers, realtors, data entry, etc. All essentially pushing paperwork back and forth. And the Investement Banking industry/Wall street is increasingly owning a larger percentage of our nation's wealth. The ultimate paper pushers-- making money on money.
Why can't we somehow find a way to get those unemployed Detroiters to make clothing in a factory in downtown Detroit?? Do we have to outsource all of those jobs to Viet Nam or China?
Thanks, but i wasn't completely selfless. I told people here about AVXL when it was at $0.30, but I had already loaded up in the $0.20's ...lol. (But I did continue to buy more afterwards too). It's now at $2.64, pre-4:1 RS equivalent.
I agree. Two or three years ago IDRA was a $.040 cent company too. It already had its quick 7-fold move to $3.
I promise that if something doesn't smell right this week with Anavex I will let you know. I have no ulterior motives. I have already made great money.
I will post any concerns on this Idera board only. I think I'm fairly well known on biotech YMB's in general so I don't want to create a controversy or panic situation over there on the Anavex message board with any post that creates doubt. There is total euphoria there now, which is deserved. Anavex 2-73 could be a game-changing drug, much like the discovery of penicillin.
Ok, to you IDRA and AVXL guys... Here's the deal with Anavex this week, before Nov 7th:
There's only ONE thing to watch for: the MONEY. If there's an announcement of any sale of stock to Lincoln Park Capital (LPC) this week (which is totally at Anavex's discretion) or issuance of new shares (ATM) during this run-up, that's a very bad sign. They know the results (open label), and they have their presentation all ready to go. Promising data and this stock could triple (or more) overnight. THEN they could raise cash from LPC or an ATM if necessary with minimal dilution due to a very high stock price. But if they instead use this run-up to Nov 7th as their opportunity to raise cash, lighten your position ASAP.
In conclusion, I expect the run-up this week to be substantial. We're golden if the company chooses to NOT raise capital this week.
Prospern-- analysts gave Biogen's Alz drug a $20Bil value if it went to phase 3.
So, in my opinion only, the pop that is possible in AVXL if data is great next weekend is markedly under-estimated by everyone. It could go to $60 within days after data presentation. Pre-split equivalent of $15. Market cap of $1.8 Bil.
I sold off half of my AVXL. I still have a ton (7 figure $$) in the stock. Did you see that big intraday-day dip thurs and Friday there? Well, that was me selling lol.
If no run-up in AVXL this week: hold through Nov 7th.
If a run-up: sell off a bit more. No matter what, I'll have several hundred thous on the line next weekend.
If the news is great, I advise you to NOT sell the pop. Because after great results, partnership/buyout speculation will be rampant, which will propel it higher. Also, there is a low float now, and institutions will have to be buying in slowly for months to get their shares. Finally, Nov- March is always biotech bull season, so AVXL will propel higher. So, for example, if on great results Anavex pops to $25, it could easily be $50 by March.
Hey Tursta-- fwiw, I took some profit in AVXL this past week and re-deployed to IDRA. I am VERY optimistic about AVXL, but I had to bank some profit. I am up 8x there. I'm not that crazy
Yes, I refreshed myself on that thread. Yes, it's a possibility. But if they did submit last-minute, I would bet that we get a P.R this coming Monday or Tuesday. The silence is deafening .. I don't know whether it's the lull before the storm, or whether we're still many weeks/months early to the show.
1) despite our rapid rise, we still have a small market cap of $320 mil (a little higher if all shares were issued). Plenty of room to run. Axon's market cap is $1.2 Bil, for a less promising drug, and it's far narrower than the scope of our sigma-1 agonist (Alz, epilepsy, depression, Parkinson's etc)
2) Plenty of studies supports Sigma-1 agonist potential. Not just ours. CNCE has a sigma-1 agonist in the pre-clinical stage which has shown major effectiveness in preventing epileptic seizures. Same as our study for 2-73 in epilepsy. And AVNR was bought out, due to their drug having partial Sigma-1 effect (not even as directly targeted as 2-73)
3) We have a deep pipeline. 3-71 is supposedly even stronger and a more direct Sigma-1 agonist.
4) We are moving at a rapid pace. Early surprising results on July 22. Unexpected early results to be presented on Nov 7th. Uplisting. Secure financing, now with a back-up plan in place. Believe me when I say this: Companies with poor results delay and delay. Nobody is ever in a rush to present poor results (think XOMA). The results will be good on Nov 7th. It's only a matter of if they'll be great.
Yes, of course, worst case would be LPC purchase ASAP--like next week-- before results--adding more cash to the $13 Mil on hand. Then trial failure announcement, then end Alz trial. Then commence epilespy trial with enough cash for commencing phase 2. This will NOT happen. Little chance, lol. Missling is German-- honest and straightforward, not a player or con artist
I know this sounds ridiculous, but for a long term holder, we'd still be fine even if Alz results are disappointing. We'll hit gold with epilepsy. No reason to sell
Accumulation vs distribution is at major high (nosebleed levels), despite people who eat you to think otherwise.
I think the bust out starts tomorrow. In the $12's soon, Monday at latest is my prediction.