Yes, it could be in the $3's for a long long time (or maybe go to $2's). Then within a matter of days/ weeks, it'll be in double digits. That's the way it'll go. Unfortunately, we won't be notified ahead of time.
As an aside: Regarding SNTA..... I worry about resistance to their hsp90 inhibitor drug. They have numerous trials going on for big cancer indications. If this drug works, it would be massive. All or nothing. Too risky for me as long term hold. Regarding AVXL, it's a cheap stock with impressive scientists involved. It's an Alzheimer's play, and it'll get increasing scrutiny because their drug also affects tau target. Little downside at current valuation. A big plus is that their drugs could still be great for epilepsy-- a billions+ market in itself-- if Alzheimer's proves a bust (which unfortunately has been mostly the case with this horrible disease).
Still holding strong with 90%+ of my shares here, and very optimistic! (I sold off a few shares last week for cash to pay the IRS and to buy another couple of bios, Snta and Avxl, but just sold all of my Snta). Anyway, I'll bet against you regarding nothing much happening in the next 4-5 months. The general feeling out there I think is that Idera is a 3rd and 4th quarter "play" and it's time is not here yet. Maybe true, maybe not, but my guess is that people will wind up chasing. I'm glad to be holding, with my cost average in the $2's, rather than to be chasing in the future.
Very true, MGM... that block could magically disappear once the price approaches it...
Well Bird, as they say, the swing trade works til it doesn't. And so far it's worked well for you (I think). You're hitting singles, while most of the rest of us are looking for home runs.
True... But Idera has 3-4 potential blockbuster products, and only one needs to be good to make money here. So, in a sense, there is diversification built in. Compare to, for example, CYTR or XOMA, each with one product, and hence all your eggs in one basket....
Small sample size AND subtherapeutic dosage. Hence the 1.2 mg and 2.4 mg dosages for the WM trial. 8400 is likely far safer than they expected, and they now realize that they could have used higher dosages in the POC psoriasis trial. No matter.
I myself can't get excited about SYN. It may do extremely well --even become a 5-10 bagger-- but I dont see it as a blockbuster company like Ziop or Idra, as Tursta has said. Their science isn't transformative. I think Trimesta could be of some help. And C. Diff is not that common and already has a treatment (oral vanco), so I think that a preventive treatment will not be widely used and generate as much revenue as the company hopes.
So I'll pass on SYN. There's way to much risk in these biotechs, and I'm not convinced the reward is enough for me there.
Thanks. Without news, I've seen some biotechs meander within a 25 cent range for months and months. We won't stay here that long though, as things are lining up for a big 2nd half of 2015.
So Drew, what do you think of IDRA here? We're in a null period, seems like a good time to accumulate, while the wait exhausts a lot of longs. We might be in the $3's for a while?
It's nice to be up on a side bet (for a change). I just am not convinced yet about SNTA's science, so it's not a long term hold.
I might even buy some AVXL if it pulls back, after all the hooplah settles down. Their drug actually might even have a chance of working.
Yep, these kinds of immune system drugs are tricky. For example, the optimal dosage might be 1.2 mg, as maybe 2.4 will cause too much immune suppression and not necessarily enough improved efficacy to offset side effects.
Now I realize with that comment that you're just here for kicks and to get a rise out of people. Not even real anti-Semites would say that. Goodbye
True about reverse H&S possibility.
Another optimistic possibility is that we completed a full 5-wave Elliott Wave pattern then A-B-C wave correction:
...Wave 1 started at the October low, and then Wave 5 culminated at our $5.45 high, then followed by a textbook A-B-C wave correction, with the large C wave ending at $3.25. So now we are in Wave 1 UP again...
If you stick with your Head & Shoulders chart pattern hypothesis-- with the neckline between $3.75- $4.00-- then it's possible that the rise from our low of $3.25 just re-tested the neckline and did not surpass it--which means we theoretically could go a lot lower from here.... A re-test of the neckline is common...
BTW, I doubt we will....