Tau--you are right, of course. My statement was more on a personal level. It's so hard to win big on even one biotech, that to hope that lightning me strikes twice in the same stock is asking for a lot!! I loaded on AVXL at an average of $1.20 (post reverse-split, equal to $0.30 pre-split) and sold it all at average of $11 post-split. A 9-bagger.
I agree that AVXL could easily duplicate the run at some point. And a I hope you're right about GALE, but it's too risky for me!
Yes, I agree 100%. I made a lot of money last year in AVXL. I never go "full in" again in the same stock. I have moved on, although I've bought a few shares here and there in it for kicks. It's be like moving back into the same house that you moved away from 15 years ago. You should never go back.
Sorry to say, but maybe the same with Idera. It ran from $0.40 to over $6.70 a fews ago. It's time has been "over" for years, it seems, unfortunately....
I believe everything in life has its time, and when you miss it, you've lost your opportunity. Just like in investing, I feel that way about presidential elections. McCain should have won in 2000, but didn't. When he ran again in 2008, it wasn't his time, and he lost. Mrs. Clinton should have won in 2008 (over Obama), and instead she'll get the nomination now, but she'll probably lose now. Wrong person, wrong time now.
Well, if $3.25 were the bottom if FX fails, I'd gladly take those odds! However, we really don't know what the bottom will be if it fails, nor do we know how high it can go if the trial is excellent. This delay in FX results has certainly upped the ante, with all the trial results likely arriving within a few months of each other.
Yep, thanks jr...
I expect the next big P.R. might be in 2 days --Thursday.
Fwiw, the company seems to like announcements on Tuesdays and Thursdays. So, if nothing this week, then I'd look to Tuesday of next week. Don't anyone get spooked into selling your shares!
To jr, and those on stocktwits-- this is fundamental, not technical, play now. We're getting FX results any day or week now, followed closely by at least two other trial results likely within the next 2-3 months. At this time, you either believe in the science or you don't. To base your investment decision on technicals in this thinly traded/low float stock doesn't make sense to me at this point in time. Just my opinion.
Nice call on the move today, jr... If the channels on your redrawn charts pan out, we could rise well into the $7's, unless/until we get news. Let's hope so!
I believe that all cancer trials are risky, as I'm pretty much batting 0% there over the years! I actually think Neuvax will perform well. My concern is the control arm, now with the adjuvant. Control arms doing better than expected have ruined a lot of cancer trials!
AVXL is less of a stretch. Look at AVNR's history.
Yes, the metals play is interesting, especially if it corrects some and gives us a better entry than now.
Bio sector going forward will still reward the winners (like CPXX), but I think that no longer will it lift all boats. If you don't execute and have positive results, the stock will be penalized. Potential alone won't be rewarded like in the past.
Also, I wonder if their will be some divergence of the IBB and XBI (large cap bios vs small and mid-caps). The XBI is closer to its "pre-bubble" level than is the IBB.
Anyway, obviously I am more optimistic about the sector than you, but I do have some metals and other sectors in my diversified portfolio.
I still think the way this plays out is this: one day it gaps up at the open and never looks back. Those who think they can time the bottom or have plenty of time before entering will be in the uncomfortable position of having to enter in the$3's or higher.
I agree. I expect a very good update.
And I'll go on record to say to that I think the bottom is in for many small cap biotechs, including Idera (barring unexpected bad news tomorrow). I'm this regard, I disagree with those who are very pessimistic about the sector now, including some posters on this board.
Well, that's it, no Friday after hours bombshell. Horrible last 3 days, that's for sure. We're being played. Huge swings in both directions. Our chart is a mess. Looked amazing last week, but terrible now. Two lousy choices for President. What more can I say? lol. I still think we might hit it out of the park with FX results.
Have a good weekend everyone!
Perhaps one of the reasons for the delay in announcing FX results has been behind-the-scenes discussion of how to proceed next. If that's the case, that's a plus, since there would be no need for discussion if negative trial results.
Yep, news on Friday afternoon after hours is bad almost all of the time..
I suppose we can debate whether releasing the financials early, prior to FX results, is bullish or bearish...lol
Adult focal is likely to be positive--like phase 2-- but these are difficult patients to treat who have tried and often failed with other regimens. So even a 20-40% response rate would be good.
Fragile X, on the other hand, is regarded as a much higher risk trial, but I don't think so. There are numerous parameters and endpoints which, if enough of them are met, will lead to a phase 3 or early approval. And there is a lot of scientific literature supporting a potentially positive outcome in not just Fragile X, but perhaps the whole spectrum of autism. The science behind this drug in this disorder is compelling (a bullseye actually, if you research it), more so than practically any other experimental drug that I've ever studied. (And it's a plus that this isn't a cancer drug-- my yield on betting on cancer drugs this far is 0%!)
Oh, and I forgot to mention female pediatric infantile seizures. For that I think Ganax is a slam dunk. GABA receptor dysfunction is a hallmark of that condition.