Also, notice the increasing spread between the bid and ask price.. The free float is dwindling. Not many shares are available.
There is always an investor's dilemma when a company has TWO potentially great drugs. Do I hold my shares through trial results of the first drug? If it fails, and the stock price collapses, I then can load up shares cheaply prior to the release of the second drug! Oftentimes, fortunes are made that way.
However, I too am excited about 2-73, so I don't think it'll fail (includes epilepsy as well as Alz).
I personally think that these message boards have created quite a dilemma for MM's and those institutions who were trying to quietly accumulate most of the shares of this company.Having trickled the price down to 15 cents, they had been quietly accumulating shares in a very controlled, quiet manner--to over 54% institutional ownership, which is VERY high for a penny OTC stock (not to mention another 25% owned by insiders). However, with price still in the low $0.20's, the word suddenly got out on numerous message boards, and SUDDENLY retailers gobbled up massive amounts of shares-- with some owning several hundreds of thousands of shares each (500K+ shares, cost $125-$150K or so, could have bought ONE percent of the whole company, excluding warrants).
So here we are. I believe that more institutions want these shares, but they are no longer easily attainable due to the retail buyers/hype that came unexpectedly. So now, it's up to us retailers to NOT give it to them cheaply. There will be a lot of mind games here with the stock price. Just my opinion.
Not likely rising to $3 until next week at the earliest. Still likely a lot of retail biotech holders who need to make their margin call sales. So they'll likely keep the price here until they've gobbled up those cheap shares.
Good decision to buy. So few shares out there. So what if it drops to, say, $0.23 for a bit. It'll run this summer for a great return, even if you don't hold it long term.
Definitely double down if it does. You're not stupid though. The Company and Maxim want the share price in the "dollars" to exercise options. Gives the company a lot of cash and Maxim a nice profit. Even then the price is cheap.
2-73 and 3-71 are both first-in- class drugs with unique mechanisms, both of which might have broad potential in numerous CNS conditions, with multi-billion dollar markets. Lots of ways to potentially make a lot of money here, with very little downside at current market cap IMO.
It may take time though. I've decided not to trade this, since I bought all my shares at age price $0.27. I might take some off the table at, say $0.80 and then when/if it gets to $1.20, but I will let the bulk of it ride. I see a quick buyout offer here at $4-$6 within a year, actually.
This reminds me of ADXS when it was sitting in the $2's last year. A tiny market cap, while all of its competitors in the space had at least 10x the market cap. Must be something wrong, and longs were angry. Well, finally it got recognized "somehow" (on little news), and, within a very short time, it zoomed. It's now over $20.
The market does overlook stocks-- until they don't.
At its current market cap AVXL is a great risk/reward. Yeah, it's OTC, but some have done fine there, like NVIV (which just went to Nasdaq)
I'm just using comparable market caps for many other biotechs at their current stage, combined with market potential
While you've said one must hold for a year for meaningful results and stock appreciation, imo that would likely mean we'll have to wait to jump to $15-20 from our baseline, which I believe will be around $3. We are about 90% undervalued as of now, the fair market price prior to clinical results. We're just getting started on our run there.
Maybe I was wrong about their being able to close this stock below $3. Someone fought back hard at the close yesterday. Heavy buying to close above $3. We'll see if the shorts give in today.
I agree with some things you've said, but not all. I don't agree with your view about the low market cap. It means nothing. PCYC had a miniscule market cap at one time. HZNP was even mired in the $2's long after their first drug worked in trials and was approved.
This company was ignored, as it was too early and not relevant. Now it is. Of course the odds are against it, but the scientific underpinning of Avenix 's drugs are as theoretically valid as any.
Yep. And, to the cynical side, they have plan B-- Anavex 3-71-- to tout when/if the first drug fails. Nonetheless, nothing in Biotech is this cheap, not even Zlcs at its low point. A very good bet here
hey KD, yep, we're not going to get a PRAN-like run-up, but, nonetheless, it's still a very cheap lotto ticket. I bet that a lot of folks will put in $25K (50,000-100,000 shares) for the outside chance to make millions.
99.6% of Alzheimers drugs have failed.
99.6% of failed Alzheimer's drugs had people who bought the lotto ticket