I don't know how you can say that "things have been changing so fast without many updates from the company...". The reality is that they are updating us 2 months earlier than we all expected.
I doubt a bear raid. So few free shares out there now. Maybe we'll see one after the $0.70's, but I would doubt even then. More likely it would be some longs de-risking and taking some profit.
Should be a fascinating next 2 weeks. Watch the show. XOMA has critical trial results due any time now. Eye trial. (Every recent eye drug trial has failed: LPTN, EBIO, etc,etc). Stock will be a roller coaster, IMO. BB's have a big stake there.
AVXL is a micro cap with an early Alzheimer data presentation in 10 days. A disease with a graveyard full of failed drugs. Priced to fail. Could be a roller coaster, or even go parabolic. I have a position there, but not for the faint of heart.
I agree. A rise to $0.75++ (maybe even over a dollar) this week would put longs in an interesting dilemma. Take your double (or triple) and run, or hold for a possible $2-$5 share price on good data.
I want to add that even if 7/22 results are merely "encouraging", there's a chance that we could run hard. All it takes is one headline such as "Biogen disappoints, but Anavex shows promise, at Alzheimer's conference..." Odds of this are maybe 5%.
Jake-- I certainly understand your concerns, especially with your loss in AMBS. You are a wiser, jaded biotech investor. Perhaps the same with Pivot too. (Also there is a bit of last-minute jitters going on now here, like the week before one's marriage). I too think that the info on July 22nd won't be earth-shattering.
NONETHELESS, the fact remains that we are seriously undervalued, and there is practically no down side (if your time horizon is more than 5 seconds), even assuming we go down back to $0.25 due to poor results. In the worst case scenario of 2-73 Alz failure, we have epilepsy next and then 3-71, and we'd hit $1.00 (double from here) by next year anyway. Of course the risk/reward changes IF we reach, say, $0.80 next week!!
More likely, we have have "encouraging" data on 7/22, and, depending on specifics, the stock price will settle anywhere from $0.50 to $2.00....which will disappoint many new investors, but be fine for those who loaded in the $0.20's - $0.40's.
Both are possible. But it still seems to me that if the data were bad, they'd still be better off in the end by releasing data in September as expected and give themselves a longer run-up in which to dilute.
Also, the epilespy pre-clinical data makes me think that, wow, maybe we really do have something here that could have an effect in Alzheimer's too.
Pivotal... Lots of ways to play this:
1) Buy a ton now (if not already vested) and take your chances and hold tight long term. Still a great risk/reward equation, but less so than when the stock was in the $0.20's
2) Buy a ton now (if you're not fully vested already) and sell most on pre-presentation run-up, if there is one.
3) Wait until after presentation. It may be nothing special and precipitate a sell-off. You will win long-term after buying shares cheaply.
4) Buy after presentation even if great news is reported. It may cost you, say, $1-$4 somewhere, but you're betting that you'll likely see it go to $20-$50 eventually
5) Buy now and sell post-presentation on the pop if it's great. You've made your 5-10 bagger. Quit while you're ahead. Or maybe take back all of your initial investment, and let the rest (house money) ride.
You are either being deceptive or didn't read a word I said. I basically said that if they have proof of sufficient CNS penetration of 2-73 to cause physiologic changes (in EEG, etc), then we are golden for EPILEPSY. We just needed to know that 2-73 sufficiently crossed the blood/brain barrier in humans. I gave NO prediction for Alzheimer's.
I agree. They work together, and they all get what they want. However, they have a bit of a problem HERE. There are lots of us diehard retail IDRA holders who've dug in and own huge chunks of shares. Much more than typical. They know it, and we know it
Shorts won't really totally give up until a biotech is a legitimate BUYOUT target. Until that time, they'll always try hard. Even if a company has an approved drug, shorts will be relentless if it's clear that there will be no buyout prospect. Examples: AMRN and MNKD. Shorts own these, since neither got that buyout that they wanted.
Hey rwood.... Big money potential here. Double or triple or more, perhaps even very soon. Idera's day will come, not quite the time yet.
We're on the cusp of a major breakout. Don't know what day it'll start. It'll be sudden, maybe even a gap up in the morning one of these days.
Haven't been on here much lately. Keep the faith! We're going down on fairly low volume and some of us are being suckered into selling. Whenever we take off, it'll be fast, and those who've sold will be chasing. Don't know exactly when it'll happen, but probably pretty soon..
They will be talking about more than max tolerated dosage. They will actually discuss electro-physiologic changes.