Yes, maybe only 3-4 million shares are retail-owned. As I've said before, over the last few months we have mostly seen the same 50-150K shares being tossed back and forth between MM's and a few traders.
Just my opinion, but I think today would be the perfect day in GALE to take one's initial investment off the table and go into results with only house money. Or maybe even sell it all, take your 50-100% gain there, and call it a day. The Neuvax trial is very risky, much more so than our FX trial.
Hey Tech. I don't know, I think the newbies know the story. Caveat already stated that he'd double his position if FX failed. And I'm beginning to wonder if there is going to be much of a sustained drop at all if FX fails. If that many people are waiting to buy after FX results-- including institutional investors-- and few current share holders sell, we might take off within days of a price drop on failed results and recover fully pretty quickly.
Second, the science behind Ganax in Fragile X is compelling enough that I myself would recommend a newbie friend to buy now and take one's chances, but sit tight and brace yourself for several months.
All right, Tech is right, no need to waste time jumping the gun. If FX fails, we'll move on to discussing epilepsy, which will include the upcoming IV ganax trial for S.E.
Probably, but we have a new touchy freely FDA that'll likely approve SRPT on little data. So anything's possible
Correct Tech, but FXS has 3x the prevalence of DMD. Probably worth a market cap of $300-$400 Mil if positive phase 2
If results are promising, then they'll go to phase 3, probably mostly paid for by grant money like phase 2 was.
If results are good or great, then maybe accelerated approval and no phase 3 needed, since Phase 2 was double-blinded with sixty kids-- a healthy number,.
If results are poor, the stock goes down temporarily. Good buying opportunity.
Short interest goes up in almost all biotechs before results release, because 80% + of trials fail.
I follow the short interest also. It is up from earlier, but still less than 2% of share total!!! (329,000 shares out of nearly 20 mil total shares). That's practically the lowest that I have EVER seen for any biotech going into results. So don't sweat it!. (check out short interested on 5 random small cap biotechs, and you'll see that they're all nearly 8-20%)
It's a bit complicated by the fact that Marinus doesn't control the trial. So there may not be any company strategy at all regarding timing of the release that would normally be typical for a biotech company.
It certainly makes investing strategy difficult for those who wanted to wait until after FX results to buy in. There may not be time.
I'm referring only to the written 1st quarter p.r. describing the FX trial. Why mention "investigator and parental observation..?" Why bother to mention that detail if they expect poor results? I think they are laying the groundwork for defending the results by reminding us that the parents-- who know their kids best-- were involved in grading the effectiveness of Ganax.
Every once and a while a biotech CEO throws out breadcrumbs to the retail holders. I feel this is one of those rare times. For years, the company has barely mentioned the FX trial, usually only in passing, in the last sentence of the last paragraph. They were almost saying "we didn't run it, it wasn't our idea, so don't blame us if it fails. This is an epilepsy drug".
But now, as I and others have said, it was front and center in their last quarterly report, and, as I've said before, elaborated upon-- mentioning both clinician and parental impression being used to judge efficacy. I view this as a bullish statement and as the CEO throwing out a breadcrumb (a trail to lead us).
If this were a pump and dump operation with shady management, then I would be much more skeptical. But I see evidence of this, not is there evidence of a pump or dump in the stock price action. Just my opinion.
I am a glass half-full kind of person, and I'm sure one can dig and find a clue indicating trial failure, which I still view as 50/50.