My concern about GALE's Neuvax is this:
Phase 2 results were great. In Phase 2, Neuvax + adjuvant showed significant advantage over control (placebo). However, the trial is different for phase 3-- now it's Neuvax + adjuvant VERSUS ADJUVANT alone as control. Maybe a big difference....will adjuvant itself--which stimulates the immune system-- improve the control group's results??
I agree about the tax loss selling. But it seems like there's still plenty of buyers to pick up the shares.
This is setting up for a great January. They'll probably announce more great MM-121 trial results right after New Year's, and then it's up from there...
You gotta buy some IDRA on any dip if you can. It's gone from 30% to something like 80% institutionally owned in just a few months. Follow the big money.
CNDO is a good bet now after the price collapse. A great chance for a double or triple now.
My guess is that we're at or very close to the bottom in gold. (Everybody is bearish, which usually occurs at the bottom).
On another note, this is crazy time in biotech!! The momentum players are running amuck. Last week it was ARIA. This week it's INO. I'm hoping next it will be IDRA (started today?) or CYTR (again?) or MACK. The key is to spot the early signs, such as massive volume spike.
...while the stock prices continues to slowly rise on this accumulation. It makes me think that soon we're going to have a large spike upwards...both in the RSI and the stock price. Maybe a large brokerage initiating coverage, or perhaps more positive MM-121 trial results....?
Yes, THLD has fallen off the radar, especially after ZIOP's drug failed for STS. Also, for the last year, THLD's CEO has been selling shares, and there have been zero insider buys. So there are red flags everywhere. Not the case here though...
What do you think of MACK?. I've had a tumultuous last year, did well with kerx and snta (got out at top), but lost badly with zlcs. I've recovered nicely, riding MACK from $3 to present.... I too have studied a lot of biotechs and have it narrowed down to 4 holdings:
MACK, IDRA -- biggest positions by far, and then smaller positions in INO and CYTR.
Hey Chev. I have INO too.
Both MACK and CYTR have good shot at doubling. Espec MACK.
But my #1 pick for 2014 is IDRA. Maybe the 2014 version of CLDX or ACAD. 5- bagger or more.
Thanks. I'm going to hold a substantial portion through results. I bought my large position in MACK between $3.00- $3.25 a share, as I've only been here for a month. So even if 398 fails, I'd probably still be in the black.
yeah Kristy, your life is toast now. Look out the window. See that car parked across the street?
Boogins.... in early April, Merrimack reported that one of three subsets in the NSCLC trial failed, and was being discontinued. But the trial with the other two subsets still continued, and in late April it was announced that enrollment was completed, with results likely before the end of 2013.
Are you sure? I know they reported some disappointing data about lung cancer trial earlier this year, but both their website and clinicaltrials.gov still report the NSCLC trial as active....
Thanks for the lung cancer update...somehow I missed that.
The big question still remains.... does one hold through MM-398 results, or lighten the position? Binary events are always scary...lol
Here are two of my random thoughts..
1) I assume that many view MM-121 as the crown jewel here. So if/when MM-121 shows encouraging results in their tumor and NSCLC trials, there might be quite a buzz and finally greater recognition in the science community. This could cause a big jump in our stock price. However, offsetting this is the MM-398 "problem". As an investment, MACK is all about MM-398 now, with a pivotal phase 3 trial binary event looming. This creates a dilemma if you're only really interested in MACK for MM-121 (and their other antibody-related products). Do you invest now, or wait for the dust to settle after the MM-398 results (and perhaps root for failure)? This is a classic dilemma in biotech investing, when one is interested in the company's second drug in their pipeline (chronologically), and not the first...That being said, things are looking great for MM-398, and any investor who decides to wait to enter after its phase 3 results might have to buy MACK at $20 a share or even higher....
2) This accumulation and the massive insider purchases recently have led us to believe that they have confidence in positive trial results, probably both with MM-398 and MM-121. The other possibility is that they are in buyout talks. It reminds me of MITI before their buyout.
I haven't followed GALE for a while, but my understanding that phase 2 was done with their vaccine + immunoadjuvant against control (placebo), whereas Phase 3 now will be their vaccine +adjuvant against adjuvant as the control. Potentially a BIG difference.