Excellent post. Efficacy wearing off/side effects long term is always a worry. Especially with epilepsy. But we have a lot of slack with Alzheimer's. If grandma newly becomes lucid for 1-2 years before the drug wears off or has a bad side effect then so be it. We'd all take that scenario in a minute.
Early part B results too. This is the big leagues now. Cognition data...
Yes, i agree that in reality AVXL at its current market cap may in fact the safest stock in one's portfolio. It sounds preposterous, but in reality it is not.
I'm with you. Whenever I try to finesse and trade these biotechs, I lose in the end. So I just try to find and hold biotechs when they're cheap and undiscovered, and never try to chase them. I wish I had discovered IDRA when it was in the $0.40's! Then I'd be sitting pretty and worry that much about whether it's at $2.50 or $4.00 a share. Luckily I bought AVXL when cheap (started buying at $0.21), so I'm not gonna sweat the gyrations between $1 and $2.
I disagree, Franky.. AVXL's trial has been going on for more than 6 months, open label. They already know if the drug works or not. Within weeks probably. (Wow, grandpa knows all of our names now! ...sort of thing)
Plus, I've never seen a biotech that has been in a rush to deliver bad results. You typically delay bad results. I expect positive things here.
How can everyone panic tomorrow? Most of us retailers will be locked out from selling tomorrow AM while Scottrade, Schwab, etc. re-calculate share totals. It may take a full day. But institutions and individuals can BUY immediately. Shorts MIGHT be trapped while the price sky-rockets.
Lol. Idera will be like ANAC. Held back as long as possible, then boom, once institutional ownership was maxed out. Don't know when it'll happen (this year?), but it will.
Not sure, gernee. In the U.S., this company is obscure. Only biotech investors and message board junkies know about it, as does large pharma (secretly). But the media here hasn't even picked up any of Australian press releases on this drug. I don't know if we're known widely in the world yet, however....as of now we're just a small blip or asterick at the Barcelona conference
You are right, those are conflicting factors. Most here assume he will announce both top line part A data and early Part B cognitive data at the same time at that conference. However, Anavex is still somewhat obscure to most, even to those in the Alzheimer's field, so I think he will try to find a way to generate publicity for the company PRIOR to the conference. If not top line results, then what P.R will it be??
gernee--to me it makes the most sense. P.R the great top line part A data first to create publicity and excitement so the spotlight is on Anavex at the conference. Then under all the media attention the top guns (Dr. V and McF) stun the world with the early part B cognitive results.
I think we will get a surprise-- the topline data from 2A part A will be released within the next two weeks,... And it will be great...THEN on Nov 7th they announce that early Part B cognitive data on the first 12 or so patients shows an astounding improvement.
I always expected GSO launch to be in October, and possibly also 9200 phase 2 trial launch with partner. I predict this week or next. Then the run-up to WM results. Hang in there, folks, this is the calm before the storm. Fwiw, I bought more IDRA today (30K shares) with all my available cash.
In the end, institutions almost always make the big money and control 80% or more of the shares of all great biotech stocks. That will likely happen here too. I see little chance of retailers selling on dips now. Instead, I see the opposite-- a potentially huge rise quickly into the $2's or $3's, with retailers panic-selling in order to lock in 100-300% gains (or more), with institutions gobbling up those shares. There's the shakeout.