The Saudis increased the oil supply to squeeze out shale developers so you can say they are manipulated. The strength of the USD is part of the problem with commodities.
There are obviously too many shorts on treasuries and the treasury holders know this.
There was never a period where treasuries were this high for a long period of time. The pension funds are all going to die in a flat market and with yields near zero. If there is nothing else to invest in besides 30 year treasuries, then the end of the world is near.
Treasuries are manipulated and this is the only reason they are so high. Most dividend stocks pay more than treasuries and if the market were to remain flat there is no reason for investors to buy treasuries. The only risk if the Greek election.
This will be the new Greek prime minister. Who will be leaving first, Greece or Germany?
If Greece elects Tsipras, they don't belong in the EU.
TLT is not selling when OIL keeps falling. Natural Gas report caused UNG to fall..
Who said I was dumb when I said that investors will sell treasuries to buy Equities if the ECB announces a massive QE.
ECB QE money will end up in equities, but hopefully not overvalued US equities.
Bullard is saying something about long term rates going higher and this is why TLT is falling. It's not like you can take these incompetent Fed members seriously because they change their mind by the hour.
If the Fed does not realize there is a treasury bubble, we may be stuck at zero rates forever or until the Republicans win the 2016 election and then they will all be fired.
When the price keeps moving down, everyone says there is no demand.
When the price is outrageously high, everyone says demand outweighs supply.
Buy when everyone says sell.
Each central bank would be limited to buying a maximum of up to 25 percent of its country's outstanding debt, taking the responsibility and risk for buying the bonds itself.
I believe that will be over $1 trillion. But, some central banks like Germany may not engage in QE.
This is all non-sense. Print the money for all the bad debts and let the PIIGS leave the Euro is the real solution. Each country's politics and policies are different, they cannot share the same currency.
In other words, all debt to be issued this year can be purchased by the central bank. Some central banks may not choose to buy any debt.
Article in Financial Times
The European Central Bank is set to unveil a programme of mass bond buying next week to save the eurozone from deflation, but has bowed to German pressure to ensure that its taxpayers are not liable for any losses incurred on other countries’ debt.
I agree but I never got out of all my short TLT positions. I have sold way out of the money TLT calls.
This year has not been great but I keep risk to a minimal. If I got out all of my TLT positions, I would not be saying it's a great day.
I will probably get out of my positions when TLT goes to 127 because I had enough.
The Fed is the devil to me, who can retire when rates are zero. What a mess they created and now they have convinced Europe to do the same.
The Fed created the instability with very low rates for a long time and now global debt is not sustainable. They need to raise rates slowly. The rates can be low without the rates being at zero. I want to see normal rates and if they let the housing crisis play out, the economy would have been much better off. I hate the Fed and the rates would have been normal today if they never started QE.
This is a Japan style QE. I would buy HEDJ - Euro hedge equities.
I am both long and short but I think tomorrow we will have a rally like every Friday on OE. If not, then the selloff will get very ugly.
If the Fed does not do anything about this bond bubble and they let it continue, they can expose innocent people reliant on fixed income to great losses if they buy now. I don't think the FED wants the rate to be this low because it causes financial instability and underfunding of pension funds because of extremely low yields. Now, Japan allowed this to happen for years but the US will never allow it. As Jeremy Stein just said to Hilsenrath, the Fed may start to sell treasuries if the long term yield is too low for them to raise the short term rates this year.