I don't think any responsible manager is going to hold over the weekend.
It will probably start to selloff in the afternoon.
If the public is not buying, the market will move down. This can only continue if they convince retail investors to invest. Retail investors sold in January so I doubt they are going to buy now at higher levels. Retail investors are too afraid to buy anything now including bonds. I'm long China now and I know there is a risk but it's the best value out there.
I am guessing there is a rotation from US equities to emerging markets but I never seen this happened before. It may be that valuation matters.
There is a rotation from US small/mid caps to emerging markets. Market is acting logical for once.
The cheapest stock market is Russia and then is China. If China cannot rally, we are not in a bull market. Institutions are not willing to buy China but they want to buy bubble US equities? I still cannot believe that IWM is at 120. Many small cap companies do not even make a profit.
There are no buyers rushing to buy. The institutions are trying to lure buyers but there are no buyers up here.
It seems the manipulators want the market to move down now. When was the last time the market moved down during the lunch hour and what happened at the close? If the market moves down during lunch, it will close down.
It seems very odd that there were so many sellers in January that were taking profits and now they are going to buy at higher levels? Seriously, any analyst that says buy now is a total fraud. They are all chasing momentum but the momentum can change in one day. If the market falls today, Fast Money will be saying SELL. This market is way overbought and overvalued. The only growth I see is the growth in the P/E multiples.
How is it possible that agriculture commodities can move up 15% with no inflation?
Goods and services that require these commodities have to raise prices.
As for other commodities, they are up 5-10% this year. It may take a couple of months for these prices to show up, but it will show up.
HSBC/Markit Services PMI for February: 51.0
- Business activity and new orders declined at manufacturers.
- Outstanding business falls across both manufacturing and services
It this rally was for real, institutions would have been buying calls on the most undervalued ETF's like EEM and FXI. It looks like they were buying puts instead. When Asia is about to rally, you see the call buying but there was no call buying today. This is going to be a yoyo market going nowhere. Fast money would change their mind every day as they usually do.
Tomorrow, the market will reverse. The banks need trading volume and they are going to cause volatility.
It was all about the small caps today.