trader, thanks for your timely message this a.m. at least AZ time. I have been doing this a long time now so i'm never comfortable until revs start coming in but i didn't think we would be dealing with reimbursement from CMS any time soon ... which then panicked me into the short thesis...i have had shockers from adcom's, fda and cms before :)
trader, the new rates don't apply to CG but other diagnostics? grandfathered? i'm really confused .. does CMS have a responsibility to contact to exas?
Background:We aim to report the prevalence of irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) and elucidate the influence of IBS on the incidence of colorectal neoplasm through a community-screening-based, longitudinal follow-up study.Methods:We enroled 39 384 community residents aged 40 years or older who had participated in a community-based colorectal cancer-screening programme with an immunochemical faecal occult test since 1999. We followed a cohort that was free of colorectal neoplasm (excluding colorectal neoplasm at baseline) to ascertain the incident colorectal neoplasm through each round of screening and used a nationwide cancer registry. Information on IBS was obtained by linking this screened cohort with population-based health insurance claim data. Other confounding factors were also collected via questionnaire or biochemical tests.Results:The overall period prevalence of IBS was 23%, increasing from 14.7% for subjects aged 40-49 years to 43.7% for those aged 70 years and more. After controlling for age, gender and family history of colorectal cancer, screenees who had been diagnosed as having IBS exhibited a significantly elevated level (21%; adjusted hazard ratio (HR)=1.21 (95% CI: 1.02-1.42)) of incident colorectal adenoma compared with those who had not been diagnosed with IBS. A similar finding was noted for invasive carcinoma; however, the size of the effect was of borderline statistical significance (adjusted HR=1.20 (95% CI: 0.94-1.53)).Conclusions:IBS led to an increased risk for incident colorectal neoplasm.British Journal of Cancer advance online publication, 4 December 2014; doi:10.1038/bjc.2014.575 www.bjcancer.com.
doodle, i bought some Monday also :) i smile at my timing but like yourself our timing has been good so many times before with this one and 50 isn't out of the question in 12 months imo
loan, that's correct like you said earlier he has under promised and over delivered... i've owned since 08' listened to most of his presentations and cc's... the test is clearly superior to FIT/FOBT there really is no reason to get a screening colonoscopy in the average risk population imo.. the commercial push back will not have anything to do with the efficacy of CG which is a delightful place to be as an investor. The crown jewel was CMS and 502 the rest will roll out in its own timing.. i bought more yesterday and the day before (bad timing) i've been fortunate that my core position has been in place since mid 09...as a long time biotech investor i've had my share of clunkers but this will be one hopefully my grandkids benefit from in years to come :) may God continue to bless this company and their mission to eradicate CRC in the screening population !
they can add capacity on to the existing one for peanuts ... this isn't about labs unless the ramp is off the charts? more will be revealed hopefully we get this short squeeze we've been hearing about y.e.
steph, did KC indirectly suggest this as a possibility at the recent conference when one of his bod mentors told him ' to raise $ when you don't need to' or something to the effect? i too don't understand this raise unless it is a gift to baird? i agree with your cash flow projections.. it's a gift or something new is in the offing all obvious guess work on my part... i bought this a.m. because history is on my side :)
i don't understand how the GI community doesn't know we have a non compliance problem and they can't screen everyone who needs to be screened with colonoscopy? because then we would have a capacity problem... screen the average risk with CG; diagnose and remove polyps with colonoscopy in this population and you will make your money and then some... possible solution- drop reimbursement rates for screening colonoscopy considerably and raise rates for diagnostic and polyectomies becomes win-win. GI's would become the driver for CG
labs aren't that costly last cc they said they could add capacity to existing lab for relative peanuts ... this raise isn't about a second lab imo... cash flow should be picking way up by the end of 2015
Spot on Steph, concurrent to it will be the lessening of diagnosing stages III and IV CRC... its a disruptive technology were one day you will go to the lab for a blood draw and 'oh btw who do i give my sDNA kit to'?
mars, an 08' here .. 'out of whack portfolio' lol ya think haaa .... i held through the frozen stool study ... i guess i need to see the roll out and buy some put protection (insurance) .... luxury issues my very long friend
i'm with steph... stay or don't sell and you won't miss anything ... market timing by a individual investor in a biotech is a precarious situation... could it get back to 25?- yup will it eventually be in the 40's with a modest ramp? yup ... why attempt to time it if you know its final destination?
Bob, I don't know if you have addressed this yet but in IBD surveillance; do you see a role for ColoGuard? Also, I believe that a positive CG will be an aide to the colonoscopist as he or she will be expecting to find something; one focuses more intently imo.. thanks for any color on any of this.